What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Le Die » Sat, 16 Jun 2007 18:37:42



Quote:

>> On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
>> the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
>> 10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
>> December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
>> the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
>> the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
>> Arsenal's ground.

>> I thought the fixtures were randomly generated? This seems to bucking
>> the odds a bit for this to keep happening. Any maths experts out there
>> able to calculate the probability of 2 teams playing each other 4
>> years in a row at the same time, assuming the fixture list is
>> generated at random?

>> What I'm thinking is maybe the Premier League puts some sort of rules
>> in the program that generates the fixture list to ensure that matches
>> between the top 4 are spread out throughout the season for T.V
>> purposes.

> Randomly generated maybe, but with a bit of outside input added. One of
> these is to make Xmas fixtures require little travelling, for obvious
> reasons.  This is probably why Chelsea are played late Dec every year.
> Chelsea, Spurs and Pompy are played over the holiday this year and that
> was certainly not random.

> LC

Have you any idea how far Sunderland is for our Boxing day game? We'll have
to set off on Christmas eve.

A. Dieu.

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Jason Maxwel » Sat, 16 Jun 2007 23:42:42


Quote:




> >> On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
> >> the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
> >> 10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
> >> December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
> >> the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
> >> the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
> >> Arsenal's ground.

> >> I thought the fixtures were randomly generated? This seems to bucking
> >> the odds a bit for this to keep happening. Any maths experts out there
> >> able to calculate the probability of 2 teams playing each other 4
> >> years in a row at the same time, assuming the fixture list is
> >> generated at random?

> >> What I'm thinking is maybe the Premier League puts some sort of rules
> >> in the program that generates the fixture list to ensure that matches
> >> between the top 4 are spread out throughout the season for T.V
> >> purposes.

> > Randomly generated maybe, but with a bit of outside input added. One of
> > these is to make Xmas fixtures require little travelling, for obvious
> > reasons.  This is probably why Chelsea are played late Dec every year.
> > Chelsea, Spurs and Pompy are played over the holiday this year and that
> > was certainly not random.

> > LC

> Have you any idea how far Sunderland is for our Boxing day game? We'll
have
> to set off on Christmas eve.

> A. Dieu.

Sitting on this side of the Atlantic and seeing fans complain about a 300
mile road trip always makes me laugh.   There aren't many MLS squads that
have more than 1 team within 300 miles of them.

Jason

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Baldoni XX » Sat, 16 Jun 2007 23:52:32

Le Dieu presented the following explanation :

Quote:



>>> On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
>>> the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
>>> 10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
>>> December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
>>> the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
>>> the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
>>> Arsenal's ground.

>>> I thought the fixtures were randomly generated? This seems to bucking
>>> the odds a bit for this to keep happening. Any maths experts out there
>>> able to calculate the probability of 2 teams playing each other 4
>>> years in a row at the same time, assuming the fixture list is
>>> generated at random?

>>> What I'm thinking is maybe the Premier League puts some sort of rules
>>> in the program that generates the fixture list to ensure that matches
>>> between the top 4 are spread out throughout the season for T.V
>>> purposes.

>> Randomly generated maybe, but with a bit of outside input added. One of
>> these is to make Xmas fixtures require little travelling, for obvious
>> reasons.  This is probably why Chelsea are played late Dec every year.
>> Chelsea, Spurs and Pompy are played over the holiday this year and that was
>> certainly not random.

>> LC

> Have you any idea how far Sunderland is for our Boxing day game? We'll have
> to set off on Christmas eve.

> A. Dieu.

I warn you.

Do not under any circumstances talk to any Sunderland coppers.

They WILL nick you.

--
Count Baldoni

BALDONI REX ROMANORUM

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Le Die » Sun, 17 Jun 2007 01:06:53


Quote:





>> >> On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
>> >> the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
>> >> 10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
>> >> December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
>> >> the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
>> >> the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
>> >> Arsenal's ground.

>> >> I thought the fixtures were randomly generated? This seems to bucking
>> >> the odds a bit for this to keep happening. Any maths experts out there
>> >> able to calculate the probability of 2 teams playing each other 4
>> >> years in a row at the same time, assuming the fixture list is
>> >> generated at random?

>> >> What I'm thinking is maybe the Premier League puts some sort of rules
>> >> in the program that generates the fixture list to ensure that matches
>> >> between the top 4 are spread out throughout the season for T.V
>> >> purposes.

>> > Randomly generated maybe, but with a bit of outside input added. One of
>> > these is to make Xmas fixtures require little travelling, for obvious
>> > reasons.  This is probably why Chelsea are played late Dec every year.
>> > Chelsea, Spurs and Pompy are played over the holiday this year and that
>> > was certainly not random.

>> > LC

>> Have you any idea how far Sunderland is for our Boxing day game? We'll
> have
>> to set off on Christmas eve.

>> A. Dieu.

> Sitting on this side of the Atlantic and seeing fans complain about a 300
> mile road trip always makes me laugh.   There aren't many MLS squads that
> have more than 1 team within 300 miles of them.

> Jason

You chaps think nothing of hopping in the dodge and driving 1000 miles. If I
did that I'd end up in Africa.

A. Dieu.

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Le Die » Sun, 17 Jun 2007 01:07:31



Quote:
> Le Dieu presented the following explanation :



>>>> On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
>>>> the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
>>>> 10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
>>>> December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
>>>> the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
>>>> the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
>>>> Arsenal's ground.

>>>> I thought the fixtures were randomly generated? This seems to bucking
>>>> the odds a bit for this to keep happening. Any maths experts out there
>>>> able to calculate the probability of 2 teams playing each other 4
>>>> years in a row at the same time, assuming the fixture list is
>>>> generated at random?

>>>> What I'm thinking is maybe the Premier League puts some sort of rules
>>>> in the program that generates the fixture list to ensure that matches
>>>> between the top 4 are spread out throughout the season for T.V
>>>> purposes.

>>> Randomly generated maybe, but with a bit of outside input added. One of
>>> these is to make Xmas fixtures require little travelling, for obvious
>>> reasons.  This is probably why Chelsea are played late Dec every year.
>>> Chelsea, Spurs and Pompy are played over the holiday this year and that
>>> was certainly not random.

>>> LC

>> Have you any idea how far Sunderland is for our Boxing day game? We'll
>> have to set off on Christmas eve.

>> A. Dieu.

> I warn you.

> Do not under any circumstances talk to any Sunderland coppers.

> They WILL nick you.

Does it kind of depend on what you say?

A. Dieu.

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Baldoni XX » Sun, 17 Jun 2007 04:07:30

Le Dieu wrote :

Quote:


>> Le Dieu presented the following explanation :



>>>>> On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
>>>>> the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
>>>>> 10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
>>>>> December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
>>>>> the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
>>>>> the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
>>>>> Arsenal's ground.

>>>>> I thought the fixtures were randomly generated? This seems to bucking
>>>>> the odds a bit for this to keep happening. Any maths experts out there
>>>>> able to calculate the probability of 2 teams playing each other 4
>>>>> years in a row at the same time, assuming the fixture list is
>>>>> generated at random?

>>>>> What I'm thinking is maybe the Premier League puts some sort of rules
>>>>> in the program that generates the fixture list to ensure that matches
>>>>> between the top 4 are spread out throughout the season for T.V
>>>>> purposes.

>>>> Randomly generated maybe, but with a bit of outside input added. One of
>>>> these is to make Xmas fixtures require little travelling, for obvious
>>>> reasons.  This is probably why Chelsea are played late Dec every year.
>>>> Chelsea, Spurs and Pompy are played over the holiday this year and that
>>>> was certainly not random.

>>>> LC

>>> Have you any idea how far Sunderland is for our Boxing day game? We'll
>>> have to set off on Christmas eve.

>>> A. Dieu.

>> I warn you.

>> Do not under any circumstances talk to any Sunderland coppers.

>> They WILL nick you.

> Does it kind of depend on what you say?

> A. Dieu.

Trust me steer clear of them they hate everyone.  Say nothing at all.

--
Count Baldoni

BALDONI REX ROMANORUM

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by JAB » Sun, 17 Jun 2007 18:14:43

Quote:



>>> What I'm thinking is maybe the Premier League puts some sort of rules
>>> in the program that generates the fixture list to ensure that matches
>>> between the top 4 are spread out throughout the season for T.V
>>> purposes.

>> I doubt it, given the higher-than-the-odds frequency that every one of
>> the big clubs play each other on the same day.

> I dunno. I actually DO think that the Premier League er... 'fix' the
> fixtures in some way. I'm not saying the quoted Arsenal v Chelsea
> thing especially. But I reckon they do select certain fixtures at
> certain times; Newcastle at Bolton on the opening day? Random???

Anyone know how the actually do pick the fixtures as personally I don't
think they fix the fixture list (not that I've spent much time looking
at it) and it's more of a case of each year there is always going to be
some 'unlikely' fixtures.