What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by EFill4Zaggi » Fri, 15 Jun 2007 19:27:29


On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
Arsenal's ground.

I thought the fixtures were randomly generated? This seems to bucking
the odds a bit for this to keep happening. Any maths experts out there
able to calculate the probability of 2 teams playing each other 4
years in a row at the same time, assuming the fixture list is
generated at random?

What I'm thinking is maybe the Premier League puts some sort of rules
in the program that generates the fixture list to ensure that matches
between the top 4 are spread out throughout the season for T.V
purposes.

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Gabbag » Fri, 15 Jun 2007 21:01:06


Quote:
> What I'm thinking is maybe the Premier League puts some sort of rules
> in the program that generates the fixture list to ensure that matches
> between the top 4 are spread out throughout the season for T.V
> purposes.

I doubt it, given the higher-than-the-odds frequency that every one of
the big clubs play each other on the same day.

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Stev » Fri, 15 Jun 2007 22:55:35

Quote:


>> What I'm thinking is maybe the Premier League puts some sort of rules
>> in the program that generates the fixture list to ensure that matches
>> between the top 4 are spread out throughout the season for T.V
>> purposes.

> I doubt it, given the higher-than-the-odds frequency that every one of
> the big clubs play each other on the same day.

I dunno. I actually DO think that the Premier League er... 'fix' the
fixtures in some way. I'm not saying the quoted Arsenal v Chelsea
thing especially. But I reckon they do select certain fixtures at
certain times; Newcastle at Bolton on the opening day? Random???

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Futbolmetri » Sat, 16 Jun 2007 00:19:45


Quote:

> I thought the fixtures were randomly generated?

Are you sure that the fixtures are randomly generated? I know that in Serie
A they are not: usually the big teams are kept apart in the first few and
the last few games of the season, derbies are also restricted to the middle
of the schedule, and international and European Cup fixtures are also taken
into account.

D

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Graf Finklestei » Fri, 15 Jun 2007 23:20:19


Quote:
> On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
> the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
> 10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
> December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
> the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
> the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
> Arsenal's ground.

And what are the odds of the FA 'puta throwing up Chelsea home to the
Mancs, the (let's face it) two most likely title challengers, in April
for the third season in a row?
 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Le Die » Fri, 15 Jun 2007 23:54:37


Quote:

>> On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
>> the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
>> 10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
>> December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
>> the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
>> the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
>> Arsenal's ground.

> And what are the odds of the FA 'puta throwing up Chelsea home to the
> Mancs, the (let's face it) two most likely title challengers, in April
> for the third season in a row?

As I predicted last week.

A. Dieu.

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Graf Finklestei » Sat, 16 Jun 2007 02:31:02


Quote:



> >> On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
> >> the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
> >> 10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
> >> December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
> >> the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
> >> the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
> >> Arsenal's ground.

> > And what are the odds of the FA 'puta throwing up Chelsea home to the
> > Mancs, the (let's face it) two most likely title challengers, in April
> > for the third season in a row?

> As I predicted last week.

> A. Dieu.

***ing Mystic Meg here.  Can you predict if we'll have a White Xmas?
 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Gabbag » Sat, 16 Jun 2007 02:31:40


Quote:
> > I thought the fixtures were randomly generated?

> Are you sure that the fixtures are randomly generated? I know that in Serie
> A they are not: usually the big teams are kept apart in the first few and
> the last few games of the season, derbies are also restricted to the middle
> of the schedule, and international and European Cup fixtures are also taken
> into account.

And of course it's necessary to keep the numerous teams in Serie A
that share a stadium from playing at home on the same day.

What is the rationale for keeping the big teams apart in the last few
games of a season? It seems to me that fans would enjoy it (and TV
ratings would benefit) if there were more games played between the big
teams at the end of the season.

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by EFill4Zaggi » Sat, 16 Jun 2007 04:41:19

On Thu, 14 Jun 2007 17:19:45 +0200, "Futbolmetrix"

Quote:

>Are you sure that the fixtures are randomly generated?

Well, I assumed they are but a number of strange patterns make me
think otherwise e.g. Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the
4th year running and Man U vs Chelsea in April for the 3rd consecutive
year. It's also possible that other fixtures keep occurring at the
same time every season but we just don't notice if they don't involve
big teams. There were rumours that the Man U vs Arsenal match in the
2004/2005 season was fixed to coincide with what would've been - had
they won the match - Arsenal's 50th league game unbeaten. I think the
fixtures are on the whole randomly generated with some "fixing" to the
matches involving the big 4 to ensure they're distributed evenly
throughout the season e.g. some in August, then December/Jan and then
April (to ensure the top sides clash in a match they could decide the
title if it's a close race at that stage).
 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by RED DEVI » Sat, 16 Jun 2007 05:02:33

On Thu, 14 Jun 2007 20:41:19 +0100, EFill4Zaggin

Quote:

>On Thu, 14 Jun 2007 17:19:45 +0200, "Futbolmetrix"

>>Are you sure that the fixtures are randomly generated?

>Well, I assumed they are but a number of strange patterns make me
>think otherwise e.g. Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the
>4th year running and Man U vs Chelsea in April for the 3rd consecutive
>year. It's also possible that other fixtures keep occurring at the
>same time every season but we just don't notice if they don't involve
>big teams. There were rumours that the Man U vs Arsenal match in the
>2004/2005 season was fixed to coincide with what would've been - had
>they won the match - Arsenal's 50th league game unbeaten. I think the
>fixtures are on the whole randomly generated with some "fixing" to the
>matches involving the big 4 to ensure they're distributed evenly
>throughout the season e.g. some in August, then December/Jan and then
>April (to ensure the top sides clash in a match they could decide the
>title if it's a close race at that stage).

We've nearly always had West Ham for our last match or (next to last),
no way it can be random.

RED DEVIL

Champions!

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Phil Meeha » Sat, 16 Jun 2007 06:20:56

Quote:

> On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
> the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
> 10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
> December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
> the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
> the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
> Arsenal's ground.

> I thought the fixtures were randomly generated? This seems to bucking
> the odds a bit for this to keep happening. Any maths experts out there
> able to calculate the probability of 2 teams playing each other 4
> years in a row at the same time, assuming the fixture list is
> generated at random?

> What I'm thinking is maybe the Premier League puts some sort of rules
> in the program that generates the fixture list to ensure that matches
> between the top 4 are spread out throughout the season for T.V
> purposes.

A guy I work with who referees at local level reckons the fixture list
is generated 3 years in advance, and is just tinkered with after that to
allow for relegated / promoted teams.  Whether this is true or not, I
have no idea, but there is no way they can be random.  I reckon if
anybody studied their team's fixtures over the last few years, they
would be very similar to this season.
 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Baldoni XX » Sat, 16 Jun 2007 07:13:14

EFill4Zaggin formulated on Thursday :

Quote:
> On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
> the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
> 10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
> December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
> the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
> the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
> Arsenal's ground.

> I thought the fixtures were randomly generated? This seems to bucking
> the odds a bit for this to keep happening. Any maths experts out there
> able to calculate the probability of 2 teams playing each other 4
> years in a row at the same time, assuming the fixture list is
> generated at random?

> What I'm thinking is maybe the Premier League puts some sort of rules
> in the program that generates the fixture list to ensure that matches
> between the top 4 are spread out throughout the season for T.V
> purposes.

They don't put teams that play local to each other to play on the same
day.  That is one thing they have to set out from the start.

--
Count Baldoni

BALDONI REX ROMANORUM

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Le Die » Sat, 16 Jun 2007 07:30:26


Quote:




>> >> On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
>> >> the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
>> >> 10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
>> >> December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
>> >> the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
>> >> the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
>> >> Arsenal's ground.

>> > And what are the odds of the FA 'puta throwing up Chelsea home to the
>> > Mancs, the (let's face it) two most likely title challengers, in April
>> > for the third season in a row?

>> As I predicted last week.

>> A. Dieu.

> ***ing Mystic Meg here.  Can you predict if we'll have a White Xmas?

No we won't.

A. Dieu.

 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by Graf Finklestei » Sat, 16 Jun 2007 08:02:37


Quote:






> >> >> On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
> >> >> the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
> >> >> 10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
> >> >> December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
> >> >> the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
> >> >> the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
> >> >> Arsenal's ground.

> >> > And what are the odds of the FA 'puta throwing up Chelsea home to the
> >> > Mancs, the (let's face it) two most likely title challengers, in April
> >> > for the third season in a row?

> >> As I predicted last week.

> >> A. Dieu.

> > ***ing Mystic Meg here.  Can you predict if we'll have a White Xmas?

> No we won't.

> A. Dieu.

Good.  I ***ing hate Bing Crosby.
 
 
 

What is the random probability of this: Arsenal playing Chelsea in mid-December for the 4th season in a row?

Post by lesco » Sat, 16 Jun 2007 17:15:44

Quote:

> On the 15th December 2007 Arsenal will play Chelsea at the Emirates in
> the EPL. In the previous 3 seasons, Arsenal played Chelsea on December
> 10th 2006 (Stamford Bridge), December18th 2005 ( Highbury), and
> December 12th 2004 (Highbury). So including this forthcoming season,
> the teams will have played each other 4 seasons in a row at roughly
> the same time in the same month, with 3 of the 4 occasions being at
> Arsenal's ground.

> I thought the fixtures were randomly generated? This seems to bucking
> the odds a bit for this to keep happening. Any maths experts out there
> able to calculate the probability of 2 teams playing each other 4
> years in a row at the same time, assuming the fixture list is
> generated at random?

> What I'm thinking is maybe the Premier League puts some sort of rules
> in the program that generates the fixture list to ensure that matches
> between the top 4 are spread out throughout the season for T.V
> purposes.

Randomly generated maybe, but with a bit of outside input
added. One of these is to make Xmas fixtures require little
travelling, for obvious reasons.  This is probably why Chelsea
are played late Dec every year.  Chelsea, Spurs and Pompy are
played over the holiday this year and that was certainly not
random.

LC