> > On Thu, 11 Apr 2013 20:45:05 +1000, Sven Mischkies
> > >> On Thu, 11 Apr 2013 19:59:57 +1000, Bruce D. Scott
> > >> > |> Don't blame governance for this one, lots of people love this
> > >> rule. It
> > >> > |> would probably get voted in in a referendum (because the masses are
> > >> > |> stupid).
> > >> > This has been explained to you before.
> > >> Sorry, what has been explained to me before?
> > > That the away goal rule counters the advantage of playing the second leg
> > > at home almost perfectly.
> > Not quite . The apparent advantage of playing the second leg at home is
> > because of ET; the argument was that the away goals rule balances the
> > advantage of having the extra 30 mins of play on your home turf. Don't
> > muddle the issues.
> It's not me, it's my aging memory!
> You are right, of course.
> Checked for fun who's got the advantage: Teams who got with 1st or 2nd
> leg at home, with UEFA/Euroleague results (not counting seeded rounds).
> Something seems to have happened around 2006/7 - before that the
> advantage was with the second leg, since then a similar advantage seems
> to be with the first leg.
> ? ? ? ? SM
> Avoid Santander, the magic bank that makes money disappear.
In the wake of Tottenham-Inter a couple of weeks ago I did the
numbers for extra time since 1998/99 (last 15 years, because
it was claimed that earlier dates would skew the numbers because
home advantage was more significant in the past - whether or not
that's true is another issue; I doubt it), and I think the results
are pretty clear:
Champions League since 1998/99
Extra times: 49
Home team wins after ET: 17 (34.7%)
Away team wins after ET: 7 (14.3%)
Penalties: 25 (51%)
UEFA Cup / Europa League since 1998/99
Extra times: 126
Home team wins after ET: 34 (27%)
Away team wins after ET: 35 (27.8%)
Penalties: 57 (45.2%)
What this shows IMO is that
- when there is seeding as in the CL round of 16 where
the group winners get to play the 2nd leg at home,
this is noticeable in the number of home teams (i.e.
favourites) that succeed in extra time
- when there is no seeding regarding who gets to
play the 2nd leg at home, as in practically all the
UEFA Cup / Europa League rounds, the numbers
are almost amazingly even. As a noticeable percentage
(didn't check the numbers, but a blog entry I once read
had it at about 25% IIRC) of the away team wins in ET
is due to the away goals rule, this is as good a proof
as it gets that the away goals rule cancels out home
field advantage in a fine balance.
- only half the ties that go to extra time are decided
in extra time anyway
(just realised that I can't remember if I've
posted that here before)