by http://www.image.co.nz/aqb/soccer_ratings.html
and World Cup results now including:
South Korea 2-1 Togo
France 0-0 Switzerland
Brazil 1-0 Croatia
Probabilities of World Cup victory:
1 Germany 14.0111%
2 England 12.4313%
3 Brazil 12.0611%
4 Czech Republic 9.7145%
5 Italy 7.7302%
6 Netherlands 7.7271%
7 Spain 7.3699%
8 Argentina 6.3437%
9 France 5.3599%
10 Australia 3.6286%
11 Portugal 3.5501%
12 Mexico 2.8734%
13 Switzerland 1.7802%
14 Ukraine 0.9679%
15 Paraguay 0.6237%
16 South Korea 0.5887%
17 Tunisia 0.5625%
18 Iran 0.4968%
19 Sweden 0.4920%
20 Cote d'Ivoire 0.3800%
21 Ecuador 0.3068%
22 Croatia 0.2741%
23 USA 0.2150%
24 Serbia & Montenegro 0.2023%
25 Poland 0.1666%
26 Japan 0.0627%
27 Costa Rica 0.0539%
28 Ghana 0.0131%
29 Trinidad & Tobago 0.0084%
30 Angola 0.0039%
31 Saudi Arabia 0.0004%
32 Togo 0.0001%
N.B. Germany's home advantage is worth 78.12 ratings points.
Assumptions:
1. Probabilitiy of a draw is a linear function of the difference in
AQB ratings of the two teams (based on World Cups 1994-2002).
2. If two teams were tied at the end of the group stage, the
probability of a team being ahead was the same as the probability of a
head-to-head win.
Comments:
Brazil moved up one to third favourite after their win, which also
improved Australia's chances and heavily decreased Croatia's. Togo are
now the biggest outsiders, with a 1 in 1 million chance.
Myk