John De Lange Sophisticated prediction contest Europa league and Champions' league 2013 knockout stage

John De Lange Sophisticated prediction contest Europa league and Champions' league 2013 knockout stage

Post by MH » Fri, 08 Feb 2013 10:27:27


Anders has agreed to host the entry sheets for these contests.   Please
fill out the forms in the usual way by game time on Tuesday Feb 12th.

You have to predict the probability of each team being ELIMINATED at the
various stages (round of 16, QF, Semifinal, losing finalist, winner) and
it all has to add up to 1 for each team, and add up for each individual
round as well.  The form prompts you to do it correctly.

Eg.

Celtic   0.9  0.08  0.01  0.005  0.005

means 90 % change of a round of 16 exit, and .5% for winning.

No values higher than .9999 and lower than 0.0001 may be entered in any
field. Zeroes and ones are not allowed.

Once Anders provides a link, please download the form, fill it out , and
email to me at hynes  AT  ucalgary.ca  (no spaces). Do not reply to this
email address here because it does not work.

Good luck to all, and may the most sophisticated RSSer after
Futbolmetrix win !

Milivella - I expect an entry from you this time !

 
 
 

John De Lange Sophisticated prediction contest Europa league and Champions' league 2013 knockout stage

Post by MH » Tue, 12 Feb 2013 08:48:48


Quote:
> Anders has agreed to host the entry sheets for these contests.   Please
> fill out the forms in the usual way by game time on Tuesday Feb 12th.

One entry so far (from Jesus)
Quote:

> You have to predict the probability of each team being ELIMINATED at the
> various stages (round of 16, QF, Semifinal, losing finalist, winner) and
> it all has to add up to 1 for each team, and add up for each individual
> round as well.  The form prompts you to do it correctly.

> Eg.

> Celtic   0.9  0.08  0.01  0.005  0.005

> means 90 % change of a round of 16 exit, and .5% for winning.

> No values higher than .9999 and lower than 0.0001 may be entered in any
> field. Zeroes and ones are not allowed.

> Once Anders provides a link, please download the form, fill it out , and
> email to me at hynes  AT  ucalgary.ca  (no spaces). Do not reply to this
> email address here because it does not work.

> Good luck to all, and may the most sophisticated RSSer after
> Futbolmetrix win !

> Milivella - I expect an entry from you this time !


 
 
 

John De Lange Sophisticated prediction contest Europa league and Champions' league 2013 knockout stage

Post by MH » Wed, 13 Feb 2013 04:08:57


Quote:
> Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:
>>>> Once Anders provides a link, please download the form, fill it out , and
>>>> email to me at hynes  AT  ucalgary.ca  (no spaces). Do not reply to this
>>>> email address here because it does not work.

>>> Thanks for putting this together! Here are the d/l links:

>>> www.allt2.se/b143990/sophcon/SophisticatedPredictionContestKO_UCL2013...
>>> www.allt2.se/b143990/sophcon/SPC_EuropaLeague2013_KnockoutRound.zip

>> Don't forget! I hope I won't.

> I'd like to highlight a slight problem in at least the UCL file (I haven't
> checked to EC file): the summary columns use only 3 decimals, but they
> should be expanded to 4, just like the individual probabilities, otherwise
> the rounding might be confusing (and wrong).

They still add up to 4 decimals, I think.  I had no problems using the
4th decimal place.

- Show quoted text -


 
 
 

John De Lange Sophisticated prediction contest Europa league and Champions' league 2013 knockout stage

Post by MH » Wed, 13 Feb 2013 04:41:46


Quote:
> Anders has agreed to host the entry sheets for these contests.   Please
> fill out the forms in the usual way by game time on Tuesday Feb 12th.

> You have to predict the probability of each team being ELIMINATED at the
> various stages (round of 16, QF, Semifinal, losing finalist, winner) and
> it all has to add up to 1 for each team, and add up for each individual
> round as well.  The form prompts you to do it correctly.

> Eg.

> Celtic   0.9  0.08  0.01  0.005  0.005

> means 90 % change of a round of 16 exit, and .5% for winning.

> No values higher than .9999 and lower than 0.0001 may be entered in any
> field. Zeroes and ones are not allowed.

> Once Anders provides a link, please download the form, fill it out , and
> email to me at hynes  AT  ucalgary.ca  (no spaces). Do not reply to this
> email address here because it does not work.

> Good luck to all, and may the most sophisticated RSSer after
> Futbolmetrix win !

> Milivella - I expect an entry from you this time !

Here, for transparency, are my predictions

Celtic  .9000   .0997   .0001   .0001   .0001   1.000
Juventus        .1000   .3800   .3000   .1000   .1200   1.000
        1.000                                  
        OK                                      
Valencia        .6500   .2500   .0500   .0300   .0200   1.000
Paris St. Germain       .3500   .1800   .2000   .1500   .1200   1.000
        1.000                                  
        OK                                      
Real Madrid     .5000   .2000   .0900   .1000   .1100   1.000
Manchester United       .5000   .2000   .0900   .1000   .1100   1.000
        1.000                                  
        OK                                      
Shakhtar Donetsk        .8000   .1500   .0300   .0100   .0100   1.000
Borussia Dortmund       .2000   .3500   .3500   .0500   .0500   1.000
        1.000                                  
        OK                                      
Arsenal         .6000   .2000   .1000   .0500   .0500   1.000
Bayern M nchen        .4000   .1500   .2200   .1000   .1300   1.000
        1.000                                  
        OK                                      
Porto   .5500   .3500   .0800   .0100   .0100   1.000
Malaga  .4500   .4500   .0500   .0300   .0200   1.000
        1.000                                  
        OK                                      
Milan   .6500   .1800   .0600   .0500   .0600   1.000
Barcelona       .3500   .2003   .1499   .1499   .1499   1.000
        1.000                                  
        OK                                      
Galatasaray     .6000   .3000   .0900   .0050   .0050   1.000
Schalke 04      .4000   .3600   .1400   .0650   .0350   1.000
                4.000   2.000   1.000   1.000   16.000