by http://www.image.co.nz/aqb/soccer_ratings.html
and World Cup results now including:
Germany 2-0 Sweden
Argentina 2-1 Mexico (AET)
Probabilities of World Cup victory:
1 Germany 21.4013%
2 Brazil 16.6885%
3 Argentina 12.1557%
4 England 9.5029%
5 Italy 9.4125%
6 Spain 7.9147%
7 Netherlands 7.3304%
8 Portugal 4.8451%
9 France 3.7903%
10 Australia 2.4456%
11 Switzerland 2.3782%
12 Ukraine 1.5692%
13 Ghana 0.3345%
14 Ecuador 0.2310%
Eliminated:
15 Sweden
16 Mexico
17 South Korea
18 Czech Republic
19 Cote d'Ivoire
20 Paraguay
21 Poland
22 Croatia
23 Angola
24 Tunisia
25= USA
25= Iran
27 Trinidad & Tobago
28= Japan
28= Saudi Arabia
30 Togo
31 Costa Rica
32 Serbia & Montenegro
N.B. Germany's home advantage is worth 78.15 ratings points.
Assumptions:
1. Probabilitiy of a draw is a linear function of the difference in
AQB ratings of the two teams (based on World Cups 1994-2002).
2. If two teams were tied at the end of the group stage, the
probability of a team being ahead was the same as the probability of a
head-to-head win.
Comments:
Germany back to overall favourites after progressing to the quarter
finals. Argentina up three to third favourites.
Myk