The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by Jesus Petr » Sun, 17 Jun 2007 02:07:26


Same rules as ever.
Sheet is available at http://jesuspetry.pop.com.br .
Submissions accepted until Jun 26 9:00 PM GMT.

 My entry:

Venezuela  .10   .54   .20   .07   .09
Bolivia    .55   .40   .04   .005  .005
Uruguay    .10   .45   .30   .07   .08
Peru       .55   .40   .04   .005  .005

Brazil     .20   .18   .26   .19   .17
Mexico     .30   .25   .19   .15   .11
Ecuador    .40   .30   .15   .08   .07
Chile      .50   .25   .14   .06   .05

Argentina  .10   .23   .23   .18   .26
USA        .40   .35   .15   .06   .04
Paraguay   .45   .30   .15   .05   .05
Colombia   .35   .35   .15   .08   .07

 Thanks already!

 Tchau!
 Jesus Petry

 
 
 

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by Jesus Petr » Sun, 17 Jun 2007 02:09:36


Quote:
> Same rules as ever.
> Sheet is available athttp://jesuspetry.pop.com.br.
> Submissions accepted until Jun 26 9:00 PM GMT.

 ...to this thread and to the email of the poster, of course.

 Tchau!
 Jesus Petry

 
 
 

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by Lleo » Sun, 17 Jun 2007 08:33:59


Quote:

> > Same rules as ever.
> > Sheet is available athttp://jesuspetry.pop.com.br.
> > Submissions accepted until Jun 26 9:00 PM GMT.

>  ...to this thread and to the email of the poster, of course.

>  Tchau!
>  Jesus Petry

I have sent you an e-mail, but will embarass myself publicly and post
them here anyway.

Venezuela .30 .40 .20 .06 .04
Bolivia .50 .40 .05 .04 .01
Uruguay .20 .25 .20 .15 .20
Peru .50 .40 .05 .03 .02

Brasil .30 .25 .20 .05 .20
Mexico .30 .25 .20 .15 .10
Ecuador .40 .30 .20 .05 .05
Chile .50 .40 .05 .04 .01

Argentina .20 .25 .20 .15 .20
United States .30 .40 .20 .06 .04
Paraguay .20 .30 .25 .15 .10
Colombia .30 .40 .20 .07 .03

--
Llo

 
 
 

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by jvazq.. » Sun, 17 Jun 2007 20:41:15


Quote:
> Same rules as ever.
> Sheet is available athttp://jesuspetry.pop.com.br.
> Submissions accepted until Jun 26 9:00 PM GMT.

I'll open the contest to the Venezuelan list.  Don't expect a lot of
entries, though.

No problem, right ?

JV

 
 
 

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by Mark V » Mon, 18 Jun 2007 14:24:12

Here are mine in case the email doesn't transmit. Thanks for doing
this, Jesus.

Venezuela       0.20    0.35    0.25    0.08    0.12
Bolivia 0.60    0.35    0.03    0.01    0.01
Uruguay 0.20    0.35    0.30    0.04    0.11
Peru    0.50    0.35    0.10    0.04    0.01

Brazil  0.20    0.25    0.20    0.12    0.23
Mexico  0.30    0.35    0.10    0.13    0.13
Ecuador 0.30    0.35    0.22    0.12    0.01
Chile   0.30    0.35    0.25    0.08    0.02

Argentina       0.20    0.25    0.15    0.18    0.23
USA     0.40    0.35    0.15    0.08    0.02
Paraguay        0.40    0.35    0.13    0.07    0.06
Colombia        0.40    0.35    0.13    0.07    0.06

 
 
 

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by Jesus Petr » Tue, 19 Jun 2007 21:05:57


Quote:

> > Same rules as ever.
> > Sheet is available athttp://jesuspetry.pop.com.br.
> > Submissions accepted until Jun 26 9:00 PM GMT.

> I'll open the contest to the Venezuelan list.  Don't expect a lot of
> entries, though.

> No problem, right ?

 No problem at all, as long as you let them know there's
no money or prizes involved, except for bragging rights.

 Tchau!
 Jesus Petry

 
 
 

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by Jesus Petr » Tue, 19 Jun 2007 21:40:15

Valid entries so far:

 Agnostic
 Jesus Petry
 Llo
 Miguel Tel
 Mark V
 Futbolmetrix

 Thanks for joining!

 Tchau!
 Jesus Petry

 
 
 

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by Gronald » Tue, 19 Jun 2007 21:55:53

Jesus Petry a crit :

Quote:
> Same rules as ever.
> Sheet is available at http://jesuspetry.pop.com.br .
> Submissions accepted until Jun 26 9:00 PM GMT.

>  My entry:

Venezuela       0,40    0,30    0,30    0,00    0,00
Bolivia         0,20    0,60    0,20    0,00    0,00
Uruguay         0,20    0,60    0,20    0,00    0,00
Peru            0,40    0,50    0,10    0,00    0,00

Brazil          0,00    0,20    0,20    0,10    0,50
Mexico          0,00    0,30    0,20    0,40    0,10
Ecuador         1,00    0,00    0,00    0,00    0,00
Chile           1,00    0,00    0,00    0,00    0,00

Argentina       0,00    0,30    0,20    0,10    0,40
USA             0,20    0,60    0,20    0,00    0,00
Paraguay        0,10    0,30    0,20    0,40    0,00
Colombia        0,50    0,30    0,20    0,00    0,00

 
 
 

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by Jesus Petr » Tue, 19 Jun 2007 23:28:39


Quote:
> Venezuela       0,40    0,30    0,30    0,00    0,00
> Bolivia         0,20    0,60    0,20    0,00    0,00
> Uruguay         0,20    0,60    0,20    0,00    0,00
> Peru            0,40    0,50    0,10    0,00    0,00

> Brazil          0,00    0,20    0,20    0,10    0,50
> Mexico          0,00    0,30    0,20    0,40    0,10
> Ecuador         1,00    0,00    0,00    0,00    0,00
> Chile           1,00    0,00    0,00    0,00    0,00

> Argentina       0,00    0,30    0,20    0,10    0,40
> USA             0,20    0,60    0,20    0,00    0,00
> Paraguay        0,10    0,30    0,20    0,40    0,00
> Colombia        0,50    0,30    0,20    0,00    0,00

                   ^
Sorry, I could even accept your entry, but your score would
be hurt because the sum of first round elimination
probabilities in group C is less than 1, and no group can
qualify more than three teams to the next round, so it would
be much better for you if you adjust your entry to avoid
this inconsistency. The spreadsheet will help you if you're
able to download it. Thanks!

 Tchau!
 Jesus Petry

 
 
 

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by Gronald » Wed, 20 Jun 2007 01:12:03

Jesus Petry a crit :

Quote:
>                    ^
> Sorry, I could even accept your entry, but your score would
> be hurt because the sum of first round elimination
> probabilities in group C is less than 1, and no group can
> qualify more than three teams to the next round, so it would
> be much better for you if you adjust your entry to avoid
> this inconsistency. The spreadsheet will help you if you're
> able to download it. Thanks!

I fixed it. Thanks for your spreadsheet, it's very useful.

Venezuela       0,40    0,30    0,30    0,00    0,00
Bolivia 0,2     0,60    0,20    0,00    0,00
Uruguay 0,20    0,60    0,20    0,00    0,00
Peru    0,40    0,50    0,10    0,00    0,00

Brazil  0,00    0,20    0,20    0,10    0,50
Mexico  0,00    0,30    0,20    0,40    0,10
Ecuador 0,90    0,10    0,00    0,00    0,00
Chile   0,90    0,10    0,00    0,00    0,00

Argentina       0,00    0,30    0,20    0,10    0,40
USA     0,20    0,40    0,40    0,00    0,00
Paraguay        0,10    0,30    0,20    0,40    0,00
Colombia        0,70    0,30    0,00    0,00    0,00

 
 
 

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by Jesus Petr » Wed, 20 Jun 2007 02:27:47


Quote:
> Jesus Petry a crit :

> >                    ^
> > Sorry, I could even accept your entry, but your score would
> > be hurt because the sum of first round elimination
> > probabilities in group C is less than 1, and no group can
> > qualify more than three teams to the next round, so it would
> > be much better for you if you adjust your entry to avoid
> > this inconsistency. The spreadsheet will help you if you're
> > able to download it. Thanks!

> I fixed it. Thanks for your spreadsheet, it's very useful.

> Venezuela       0,40    0,30    0,30    0,00    0,00
> Bolivia 0,2     0,60    0,20    0,00    0,00
> Uruguay 0,20    0,60    0,20    0,00    0,00
> Peru    0,40    0,50    0,10    0,00    0,00

> Brazil  0,00    0,20    0,20    0,10    0,50
> Mexico  0,00    0,30    0,20    0,40    0,10
> Ecuador 0,90    0,10    0,00    0,00    0,00
> Chile   0,90    0,10    0,00    0,00    0,00

> Argentina       0,00    0,30    0,20    0,10    0,40
> USA     0,20    0,40    0,40    0,00    0,00
> Paraguay        0,10    0,30    0,20    0,40    0,00
> Colombia        0,70    0,30    0,00    0,00    0,00

 Now it's OK. Thanks for joining!

 Tchau!
 Jesus Petry

 
 
 

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by Jesus Petr » Thu, 21 Jun 2007 02:16:33

Valid entries so far:

 Agnostic
 Jesus Petry
 Llo
 Miguel Tel
 Mark V
 Futbolmetrix
 Gronaldo
 Luiz Mello

 Thanks for joining!

 Tchau!
 Jesus Petry

 
 
 

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by Jesus Petr » Sat, 23 Jun 2007 04:07:49

Valid entries so far:

 Agnostic
 Jesus Petry
 Llo
 Miguel Tel
 Mark V
 Futbolmetrix
 Gronaldo
 Luiz Mello
 La Violeta

 Thanks for joining!

 Tchau!
 Jesus Petry

 
 
 

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by Mark V » Sat, 23 Jun 2007 05:20:14


Quote:
> Valid entries so far:

>  Agnostic
>  Jesus Petry
>  Llo
>  Miguel Tel
>  Mark V
>  Futbolmetrix
>  Gronaldo
>  Luiz Mello
>  La Violeta

>  Thanks for joining!

I was hoping more Yanks would submit entries, given the rare US
appearance in the Copa this year.
 
 
 

The RSS Copa America 2007 Sophisticated Predictions Contest

Post by MH » Tue, 26 Jun 2007 08:32:26

Quote:



>>>Same rules as ever.
>>>Sheet is available athttp://jesuspetry.pop.com.br.
>>>Submissions accepted until Jun 26 9:00 PM GMT.

>>I'll open the contest to the Venezuelan list.  Don't expect a lot of
>>entries, though.

>>No problem, right ?

Will try to get mine in tomorrow. Been away.
Quote:

>  No problem at all, as long as you let them know there's
> no money or prizes involved, except for bragging rights.

>  Tchau!
>  Jesus Petry