Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by milivell » Mon, 22 Mar 2010 17:54:43


Goalkeepers:
- Amelia, Marco
- Miller, Markus
- Pr?ll, Markus
- Schwarzer, Mark
- Storari, Marco
- W?lfli, Marco

Full-backs and wing-backs:
- Cassetti, Marco
- Motta, Marco
- Pfertzel, Marc
- Rossi, Marco (the Genoa one)
- Estrada, Marco

Center-backs:
- Basa, Marko
- Brzenska, Markus
- Materazzi, Marco
- Rossi, Marco (the Sampdoria one)
- Torrejn, Marc

Defensive midfielders:
- Biagianti, Marco
- Crosas, Marc
- Donadel, Marco
- Heikkinen, Markus
- Senna, Marcos
- van Bommel, Mark

Midfielders:
- Noble, Mark

Attacking midfielders:
- Davies, Mark

Wingers:
- Babic, Marko
- Devic, Marko
- Bresciano, Mark
- Marchionni, Marco
- Marin, Marko
- Milinkovic, Marko
- Padalino, Marco
- Perovic, Marko

Fast strikers:
- Berg, Marcus
- Di Vaio, Marco
- Pantelic, Marko
- Rosenberg, Markus

Target strikers:
- Arnautovic, Marko
- Borriello, Marco
- Fortun, Marc-Antoine
- Janko, Marc
- Nygaard, Marc
- Streller, Marco
- Topic, Marko
- Viduka, Mark

(Player's selection is an homage to Mark V., who had the idea of this
game.)

---

Suppose that in July 2009 Fulham dropped all his players and bought
the aforementioned 44 players (actually Schwarzer already was at
Fulham). Nothing else in the world changes (e.g. not Fulham's staff
and budget). The question you have to answer is:

1. What position would have Fulham reached in Premier League 2009-10?
(1st to 20th)

The person whose prediction will be closer to reality will win. We
want an unique winner, so there is a tie-breaker question:

2. How many points will Fulham obtain in Premier League 2009-10? (0 to
114)

You are free to predict (out of competition) about anything else: top
goalscorer, FA cup stage reached, best player, etc.

Deadline for submitting predictions: Wednesday March 24, 09:00 GMT.

(I will simulate a season in Football Manager 2010 (no patch) and I'll
post the results here.)

--
Cheers
milivella

 
 
 

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by El Ko » Mon, 22 Mar 2010 18:36:52

     I have snipped the player list, since it's mot needed and whoever
needs can see it in your original post. I'm giving my predictions below,
but I have some questions:

- the other teams in the EPL play with the squads they had in reality at
the beginning of the 2009/2010 season?
- how does FM handle so many players? (I'm just curious). Will it play
the best (according to its grading) non-injured ones?

Otherwise, this is an interesting competition. From looking at the
Marko's, it seems to me that the real Fulham has a better defence and a
weaker attack than the Marko Fulham (but that impression may be due to
the fact that, with a very few exceptions, I know more of the midfield
and attacking Markos, than of the defending ones).

Anyhow, my prediction: Marko Fulham will finish 8th, on 55 points.

Quote:

> 1. What position would have Fulham reached in Premier League 2009-10?
> (1st to 20th)

> The person whose prediction will be closer to reality will win. We
> want an unique winner, so there is a tie-breaker question:

> 2. How many points will Fulham obtain in Premier League 2009-10? (0 to
> 114)

> You are free to predict (out of competition) about anything else: top
> goalscorer, FA cup stage reached, best player, etc.

> Deadline for submitting predictions: Wednesday March 24, 09:00 GMT.

> (I will simulate a season in Football Manager 2010 (no patch) and I'll
> post the results here.)

--
No, no, you can't e-mail me with the nono.

 
 
 

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by milivell » Mon, 22 Mar 2010 19:22:21

El Kot:

Quote:
> - the other teams in the EPL play with the squads they had in reality at
> the beginning of the 2009/2010 season?

Yes.

Quote:
> - how does FM handle so many players? (I'm just curious).

Well, in the default database Fulham have 57 players... (but
admittedly most of them are youngsters)

Of course the board could drop some of 44 players to lower the wage
load (and/or buy some non-Marko players).

Quote:
> Will it play
> the best (according to its grading) non-injured ones?

It should play the players that Hodgson would play in each match (i.e.
each manager is defined by 30 or so of attributes: e.g. what is his
preferred formation? how much does he rotate the squad? More, some
managers have "favourite" and "disliked" people).

(Disclaimer: as I've written elsewhere, I know very little about FM,
so I can be wrong, there could be important aspects of the game that
I'm missing, etc.)

Quote:
> Otherwise, this is an interesting competition.

Yep, Mark had a very nice idea. It's hard to force myself to avoid
running myriads of experiments (e.g. if I create an award for the best
Asian physio of the month in EPL, voted by all the European club
managers, each of them casting 3 weighted votes, allowing previous
winners to win rarely and not allowing winners more than 50 year
old... or: if I build a Maracana-clone in Catania... if I tweak
Brazilian weather as an ice age has occurred...). It's a strong
temptation. Mark V., you'll burn in hell.

--
Cheers
milivella

 
 
 

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by Futbolmetri » Tue, 23 Mar 2010 05:06:52


Quote:
> 1. What position would have Fulham reached in Premier League 2009-10?

11th, 47 points

Funt to learn what the outcome of this game will be, but frankly, not as
much fun as the miniger games.

D

 
 
 

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by Clémen » Tue, 23 Mar 2010 12:14:53


Quote:
> 1. What position would have Fulham reached in Premier League 2009-10?
> (1st to 20th)

> The person whose prediction will be closer to reality will win. We
> want an unique winner, so there is a tie-breaker question:

> 2. How many points will Fulham obtain in Premier League 2009-10? (0 to
> 114)

I'm afraid Mark(c)o.Fulham will disappoint its fans and finish 12th,
with 44 points.

Abra?o,

Luiz Mello

 
 
 

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by Jesus Petr » Tue, 23 Mar 2010 22:54:04

 Fullmark will get 59 points and finnish 7th.

 Tchau!
 Jesus Petry

 
 
 

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by milivell » Fri, 26 Mar 2010 00:53:52

milivella:

Quote:
> Suppose that in July 2009 Fulham dropped all his players and bought
> the aforementioned 44 players (actually Schwarzer already was at
> Fulham). Nothing else in the world changes (e.g. not Fulham's staff
> and budget). The question you have to answer is:

> 1. What position would have Fulham reached in Premier League 2009-10?
> (1st to 20th)

> The person whose prediction will be closer to reality will win. We
> want an unique winner, so there is a tie-breaker question:

> 2. How many points will Fulham obtain in Premier League 2009-10? (0 to
> 114)

> You are free to predict (out of competition) about anything else: top
> goalscorer, FA cup stage reached, best player, etc.

> Deadline for submitting predictions: Wednesday March 24, 09:00 GMT.

Deadline has passed, and, for your convenience, here are the
predictions submitted:
 6th: Mark V. (68 points)
 7th: Jesus Petry (59 points)
 8th: El Kot (55 points)
11th: Futbolmetrix (47 points)
12th: Clment (44 points)

So the winner for each final position that Fulham can obtain is:
1th-6th: Mark V.
7th: Jesus Petry
8th-9th: El Kot
10th-11th: Futbolmetrix
12th-18th: Clment

Now you are expecting the results, aren't you? I am about to post
them, but don't we want a bit of suspense? ;) I'll gradually post the
monthly development of the virtual Premier League table.

1st update: September 16: Fulham is 18th.

Don't you find it a bit dry? If so, dive in some data-filled
screenshots:
Played matches: http://i.imgur.com/OX1nx.jpg
Competitions:
- Premier League: http://i.imgur.com/EPhDJ.jpg
- Europa League: http://i.imgur.com/ZfZs3.jpg
- League Cup: http://i.imgur.com/m3b48.jpg
Players' stats:
- Goalkeepers: http://i.imgur.com/n1Udi.jpg
- Defenders: http://i.imgur.com/9DJMM.jpg
- Midfielders: http://i.imgur.com/Pp4aC.jpg
- Attackers: http://i.imgur.com/MuEZU.jpg

Chances are that you want some more information: feel free to ask.

---

Disclaimer/Technical jargon: I'm simulating the season in Football
Manager 2010, no patch, under the following settings:
- Leagues: England - Premier Division - playable
- Database size: Large
- Matches in full detail (all matches): EURO Cup, Premier Division, FA
Cup, League Cup
- Start unemployed

--
Cheers
milivella

 
 
 

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by El Ko » Fri, 26 Mar 2010 04:07:32

Quote:

> Now you are expecting the results, aren't you? I am about to post
> them, but don't we want a bit of suspense? ;) I'll gradually post the
> monthly development of the virtual Premier League table.

> 1st update: September 16: Fulham is 18th.

     We can use the interim EPL table to judge how good FM's simulation
is. Frankly, I'm not impressed. You can compare the simulated table with
the real one at Kicker:

http://www.kicker.de/news/fussball/intligen/england/barclays-premier-...

One would expect the Fulham results to be different from Fulmark's, but
the rest of the teams should have performed in simulation more or less
similar to reality.

Quote:
> Don't you find it a bit dry? If so, dive in some data-filled
> screenshots:
> Played matches: http://i.imgur.com/OX1nx.jpg
> Competitions:
> - Premier League: http://i.imgur.com/EPhDJ.jpg
> - Europa League: http://i.imgur.com/ZfZs3.jpg
> - League Cup: http://i.imgur.com/m3b48.jpg
> Players' stats:
> - Goalkeepers: http://i.imgur.com/n1Udi.jpg
> - Defenders: http://i.imgur.com/9DJMM.jpg
> - Midfielders: http://i.imgur.com/Pp4aC.jpg
> - Attackers: http://i.imgur.com/MuEZU.jpg

     No wonder Fulmark's results are so bad - the simulated Hodgeson
doesn't use his two strongest forwards - Janko and Pantelic... :)

Quote:
> Chances are that you want some more information: feel free to ask.

> ---

> Disclaimer/Technical jargon: I'm simulating the season in Football
> Manager 2010, no patch, under the following settings:
> - Leagues: England - Premier Division - playable
> - Database size: Large
> - Matches in full detail (all matches): EURO Cup, Premier Division, FA
> Cup, League Cup
> - Start unemployed

     What is "Start unemployed" ?

--
No, no, you can't e-mail me with the nono.

 
 
 

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by milivell » Fri, 26 Mar 2010 06:04:12

El Kot:

Quote:
>      We can use the interim EPL table to judge how good FM's simulation
> is. Frankly, I'm not impressed. You can compare the simulated table with
> the real one at Kicker:

> http://SportToday.org/

> One would expect the Fulham results to be different from Fulmark's, but
> the rest of the teams should have performed in simulation more or less
> similar to reality.

You are highlighting an interesting point. Leaving aside some b***
considerations (e.g. a. the comparison will be most interesting at the
end of the season, after 380 matches; b. you can have a bad
simulation, or no simulation at all, and still produce a table that is
similar to reality), I have some questions:

1. Is it correct to consider the real EPL table like a sample of
teams' real value (rather than a perfect representation of it)? After
all, one could say that, if Blackburn and Chelsea play 10 times,
Chelsea would win 6 matches (random example), so their draw is like 1
of the other 4 matches, i.e. it's a sample of the 10 hypothetical
matches between the two teams.

2. If the answer to (1) is "yes": we can compute a confidence
interval, can't we? I.e. we can say "with a confidence level of 95%,
Manchester United's real value measured in points per game is 2.23 (=
69 points / 31 matches) plus or minus x".

3. Things are of course easier in FM, because there we can simulate
the same season a lot of times (I just have to remember to check the
game after a couple of hours, save the standings and re-start the
season). After having ran a lot of simulations and having averaged the
results, we should be able to check if the simulated results are
inside or outside the confidence interval mentioned at (2), so
verifying/falsifying (in the limits of what it possible) FM's claims
of realism. Am I wrong?

Quote:
> > Disclaimer/Technical jargon: I'm simulating the season in Football
> > Manager 2010, no patch, under the following settings:
> > - Leagues: England - Premier Division - playable
> > - Database size: Large
> > - Matches in full detail (all matches): EURO Cup, Premier Division, FA
> > Cup, League Cup
> > - Start unemployed

>      What is "Start unemployed" ?

It means that I'm not managing neither Fulham nor another team
(something that could, in theory, "contaminate" the experiment).

--
Cheers
milivella

 
 
 

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by El Ko » Fri, 26 Mar 2010 10:10:33

Quote:

> El Kot:

>>      We can use the interim EPL table to judge how good FM's simulation
>> is. Frankly, I'm not impressed. You can compare the simulated table with
>> the real one at Kicker:

>> http://SportToday.org/

>> One would expect the Fulham results to be different from Fulmark's, but
>> the rest of the teams should have performed in simulation more or less
>> similar to reality.

> You are highlighting an interesting point. Leaving aside some b***
> considerations (e.g. a. the comparison will be most interesting at the
> end of the season, after 380 matches; b. you can have a bad
> simulation, or no simulation at all, and still produce a table that is
> similar to reality), I have some questions:

     Hehe, your point b) is funny. One judges a simulation by its
outcome; if a simulation produces a result that is the same as what it
simulates, then it is, by definition, good. :)
     Here is what I think about the points you raise:

- the real match outcomes and table are a sampling of the teams' real
strengths. They are, of course, subject to randomness; individual
matches can be influenced by chance. However, repeated sampling will
converge to the true value, because I don't think the influence of
chance is /that/ big that it dominates; the variance is not that big.
Remember that a sequence is a product of chances; you can't expect the
unexpected to happen too often in a row.

- the simulation has the advantage that it can be repeated and its
statistics checked out. If and when you have time, please make several
runs, and check the following things:
   1. How similar to each other the simulated tables are at the end of
the season. This will tell us how consistently the FM engine applies the
parameters of the players and teams. If the tables turn out to be more
or less similar (with each team moving by no more than, let's say, 2 to
3 positions around the table), we can conclude that it is a consistent
engine.
   2. Then we can check how true to life it is, by comparing the actual
position from real life to the simulated ones. This will tell us how
realistic the parameters and methods it uses are.
   3. And of course we can see how it is influenced by randomness, by
looking at the outcomes of one match played several times. This is
allowed to have a bigger variance, but still within limits. One wouldn't
expect ManU to beat Portsmouth less than 8 times out of 10.

- what you say below, is backwards. We can't really calculate the
statistics of the real teams; there's too few samples. We can, however,
calculate the statistics of the simulation, and then see if the real
results fall within the predicted confidence intervals. And that will
tell us how true to life the simulation really is - if the predicted
points per game for ManU is x points, and the actual one is y, we can
check to see within which confidence interval of the simulation that
value falls, and deduce the quality of the simulation. I'm not a
statistician, so I will abstain from claiming that, if the actual
results of the teams fall within the 80% confidence intervals, it means
that the simulation's accuracy is 80%. The relationship is surely more
complicated; if Daniele or someone else (MH?) knows more, please share.

- Show quoted text -

Quote:
> 1. Is it correct to consider the real EPL table like a sample of
> teams' real value (rather than a perfect representation of it)? After
> all, one could say that, if Blackburn and Chelsea play 10 times,
> Chelsea would win 6 matches (random example), so their draw is like 1
> of the other 4 matches, i.e. it's a sample of the 10 hypothetical
> matches between the two teams.

> 2. If the answer to (1) is "yes": we can compute a confidence
> interval, can't we? I.e. we can say "with a confidence level of 95%,
> Manchester United's real value measured in points per game is 2.23 (=
> 69 points / 31 matches) plus or minus x".

> 3. Things are of course easier in FM, because there we can simulate
> the same season a lot of times (I just have to remember to check the
> game after a couple of hours, save the standings and re-start the
> season). After having ran a lot of simulations and having averaged the
> results, we should be able to check if the simulated results are
> inside or outside the confidence interval mentioned at (2), so
> verifying/falsifying (in the limits of what it possible) FM's claims
> of realism. Am I wrong?

--
No, no, you can't e-mail me with the nono.
 
 
 

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by milivell » Fri, 26 Mar 2010 23:09:56

milivella:

Quote:
> 1st update: September 16: Fulham is 18th.

2nd update: October 16: Fulham is still 18th.

Data-filled screenshots:
Played matches: http://i.imgur.com/FN4Y7.jpg
Competitions:
- Premier League: http://i.imgur.com/v6F3j.jpg
- Europa League: http://i.imgur.com/lNCbJ.jpg
- [out of League Cup]
Players' stats:
- Goalkeepers: http://i.imgur.com/v8YV9.jpg
- Defenders: http://i.imgur.com/8jvvU.jpg
- Midfielders: http://i.imgur.com/3xgwt.jpg
- Attackers: http://i.imgur.com/u70rm.jpg

--
Cheers
milivella

 
 
 

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by Jesus Petr » Fri, 26 Mar 2010 23:37:07


Quote:
> milivella:

> > 1st update: September 16: Fulham is 18th.

> 2nd update: October 16: Fulham is still 18th.

> Data-filled screenshots:
> Played matches:http://i.imgur.com/FN4Y7.jpg
> Competitions:
> - Premier League:http://i.imgur.com/v6F3j.jpg
> - Europa League:http://i.imgur.com/lNCbJ.jpg

 But I see they have games in hand and are doing well in Europe!

 Tchau!
 Jesus Petry

 
 
 

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by milivell » Fri, 26 Mar 2010 23:39:20

El Kot:

Thanks for the reply.

Quote:
> ? ? ?Hehe, your point b) is funny. One judges a simulation by its
> outcome; if a simulation produces a result that is the same as what it
> simulates, then it is, by definition, good. :)

OK. Question: if, at the beginning of the season, you ask me
tiopredict the final table and I just copy the previous season's final
table (replacing relegated teams), is it a simulation? (more questions
to come if you answer "yes"...)

Quote:
> - the real match outcomes and table are a sampling of the teams' real
> strengths. They are, of course, subject to randomness; individual
> matches can be influenced by chance. However, repeated sampling will
> converge to the true value, because I don't think the influence of
> chance is /that/ big that it dominates; the variance is not that big.
> Remember that a sequence is a product of chances; you can't expect the
> unexpected to happen too often in a row.

Of course. I specified it to highlight two things:
- You can't judge a simulation using just one or few real matches as
benchmark.
- If a simulation has Chelsea at 70 points and Chelsea really has 69
points you can't just say that the simulation is wrong. (this was
functional to my idea to deduce teams' strength from the real table,
idea that thank to you now I know is wrong)

Quote:
> - the simulation has the advantage that it can be repeated and its
> statistics checked out. If and when you have time

I just have to develop the habit to start a new simulation before I go
to sleep, and the morning after I'll find the final table (indeed I
guess that it doesn't take more than a couple of hours to complete a
season, probably less). Write down the number of points for each team,
and it's done. (tl;dr: it takes no time)

Quote:
> please make several
> runs

How much is "several"?

Quote:
> and check the following things:
> ? ?1. How similar to each other the simulated tables are at the end of
> the season. This will tell us how consistently the FM engine applies the
> parameters of the players and teams. If the tables turn out to be more
> or less similar (with each team moving by no more than, let's say, 2 to
> 3 positions around the table), we can conclude that it is a consistent
> engine.

What's the metric? Variance of number of points (or: of position) for
each team?

Quote:
> ? ?3. And of course we can see how it is influenced by randomness, by
> looking at the outcomes of one match played several times. This is
> allowed to have a bigger variance, but still within limits. One wouldn't
> expect ManU to beat Portsmouth less than 8 times out of 10.

Hmm... If it's just *one* match each season (i.e. if every morning
I'll have to check just ManU vs. Portsmouth), it's OK. Otherwise it's
not practical, because there isn't (AFAIK) a way to export results
from FM to a spreadsheet.

Quote:
> - what you say below, is backwards.

Thanks for the explanation!

Quote:
> We can, however,
> calculate the statistics of the simulation, and then see if the real
> results fall within the predicted confidence intervals. And that will
> tell us how true to life the simulation really is - if the predicted
> points per game for ManU is x points, and the actual one is y, we can
> check to see within which confidence interval of the simulation that
> value falls, and deduce the quality of the simulation.

I.e. after several runs of the simulation we can say that we know each
team' strength (as measured by points per match) according to FM
(parameter), and we check how many standard errors separate the real
EPL table (sample) from it. I.e. we ask: how likely is that the real
table is generated by FM?

Am I right?

Sorry for questionable lexicon: all my statistical knowledge comes
from my current reading of Statistics for Dummies*... and I'm
understanding just half of what I am reading!

* Really! I can't keep annoying Daniele for every little doubt, after
all.

--
Cheers
milivella

 
 
 

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by milivell » Sat, 27 Mar 2010 16:52:41

milivella:

Quote:
> 2nd update: October 16: Fulham is still 18th.

3rd update: November 16: Fulham is 15th.

Data-filled screenshots:
Played matches: http://i.imgur.com/dj1ai.jpg
Competitions:
- Premier League: http://i.imgur.com/5qfzS.jpg
- Europa League: http://i.imgur.com/tDHBS.jpg
- [out of League Cup]
Players' stats:
- Goalkeepers: http://i.imgur.com/XGGz2.jpg
- Defenders: http://i.imgur.com/9J7br.jpg
- Midfielders: http://i.imgur.com/f5UZY.jpg [this URL is an evident
homage to the Mothers of Invention]
- Attackers: http://i.imgur.com/ZeHDb.jpg

--
Cheers
milivella

 
 
 

Virtual prediction contest (Ahwaz Airport game #4)

Post by milivell » Sat, 27 Mar 2010 23:59:04

El Kot:

Quote:
> statistics checked out. If and when you have time, please make several
> runs

My laptop is running some simulations (I hope that somebody will help
me analyzing them!).

Just to be clear, I want to remind that the scope of FM's simulation
is way larger than a league table: after each run, we have a lot of
stats, like e.g. how many goals from corner has each team scored, and
possibly even more detailed stats. But I guess that we agree that, if
the main outcome of the simulation - that is to say, the final table -
is not realistic, it doesn't matter what all the other outcomes are.

--
Cheers
milivella