Some thoughts on Day 5 Strategy: Ind-Aus T2 D5

Some thoughts on Day 5 Strategy: Ind-Aus T2 D5

Post by R. Bharat Ra » Fri, 16 Mar 2001 04:56:40


First of all, no "sporting" declaration.  I.e., declaring overnight is
ridiculous -- it gives Australia far far far too good of a chance.
I suspect Australia will desparately want to win this.  So they
will chase any total with an ask of just around 4.0 to 4.2 / over.
(In the Tied Test, India chased 347 to tie on the 5th day.  315 in
90 overs is far far far too easy. )

Second, apply the heavy roller -- that means we need to bat for
a bit.  Take away 2 overs for the change, bat X overs, and
Australia have 88-X overs to chase any target.

Assuming India can go at 6 an over in the morning:

Bat for 4 overs, Aussies chase 340 in 84 at 4.04 -- a little too easy, IMO.
Bat for 8 overs, Aussies chase 364 in 80 at 4.6 -- a bit too on the high
side.
Bat for 6 overs, Aussies chase 352 in 82 at 4.29 -- just about right.

This is in a vaccum.  In reality, VVSL will be approaching 300, and while
I think he is enough of a team player to go for it -- i.e., no nervous
290's,
he may not be able to do it in 6 overs -- require him to score at 4 an over,
which is doable if Dravid is intent on giving him the strike, but tough,
as Waugh will deliberately set fields that give him an easy single every
ball, but make 2's and 4's very tough.  In reality he may take 8 overs,
and Australia will have to chase 360-odd in 80.

But, you know what.  Australia will *HAVE* to make an effort to chase.
If they just set up shop, you will see Harbhajan and Raju bowling with
5 men around the bat, and that is asking for trouble.  The ball is starting
to jump, and I think Harbhajan will ask a lot of questions of Australia.
I think, if Australia bats for a draw with 80-odd overs to go, they will be
in
serious trouble.  They have to always keep the RRR under 5..

Some additional strategic points:
1) For God's sake, Ganguly should make sure we bowl overs quickly and
change fields fast.  The absolute last thing we need is for a successful
appeal
against the light, with #11 at the crease -- ala Shivnaraine for WI (ref:
",Bedi
bowls himself out of Test cricket")

2) Bowl the spinners in TANDEM.  Raju was horribly underbowled on Day
2 -- and while he didn't look especially good on his own, when Harby and him
were in tandem, thats when Harbhajan looked his best.  Tell Raju his job is
to keep one end completely tight, make the batsman play every ball, and not
try for any variations -- and then DON'T PULL him for someone else if he
is doing that after 2-3 overs because he isn't taking wickets.  Let Harby
get the wickets at the other end (and you know what Raju will get his
wickets
too, if he bowls tight, 6 balls in a row).

3) Attack, attack, defend -- As default, for the spinners, put 3-4 men
around the
bat, but keep 1 or 2 deep in the "obvious 4's" area of midwicket and
long-off
to the spinners (or long-off depending on Singh/Raju and leftie/rightie bat)
as long as the target is within some reach -- i.e., don't allow one lofted 4
every 2 overs to take the pressure off.  Keep the remaining  3-5 men in
single saving position, and force Australia to earn the runs, one or two
at a time.

4) Use the pacers judiciously -- in short bursts.  Give Harbhajan a break
every 10 overs, before his fingers get over-tired.  You will need 30
overs from him today -- make sure he is effective.

5) Zaheer is the obvious pacer to come in and bowl in a burst, but do
consider using yourself (Ganguly) instead of Prasad for a second spell.
Don't overbowl yourself (NO  MORE that 2-3 overs at a time), and
watch Prasad's overs very carefully.

6) Give Zaheer/Prasad a forward short leg with the new ball (and if it is
reverse swinging!).

7) The Australian batsmen *WILL* go after the spinners, particularly
Harbhajan.  Thus it is VITAL to give him cover, in the form of a deep
midwicket and long-on/off -- particularly if there is a set batsman.

8) Keep one with this attack-little-defense policy unless Australia get to
start like 150/2 with the required ask under 4.5; at this stage start going
more defensive -- this is a TEST match -- you can pack one side and bowl
wide outside the stumps; so you can later dampen the run rate if you need
to..

And if Australia do manage to win, well congratulate them and walk off
with your head held high -- because if you do all the above, you wouldn't
have lost the Test, they would have won it.

Bharat

One final point.  A (very) small potential benefit about the ideal scenario
of Australia being set 82 overs to chase 350, is that you have the chance of
taking the second new ball for the last 2 overs.  Not very likely that you
will do it, but just in case you have a stubborn 9th wicket partnership that
has held the spinners at bay successfully for 10 overs, the new ball could
be
just the thing to try in desperation.  You are not likely to use that
option,
but a very small edge...
--
R. Bharat Rao

Data Mining, Siemens Corporate Research, Princeton, NJ
"Never argue with an idiot.  They drag you down to their
level and beat you with experience."

 
 
 

Some thoughts on Day 5 Strategy: Ind-Aus T2 D5

Post by Straight_ba » Fri, 16 Mar 2001 05:30:57

Quote:

> First of all, no "sporting" declaration.  I.e., declaring overnight is
> ridiculous -- it gives Australia far far far too good of a chance.
> I suspect Australia will desparately want to win this.  So they
> will chase any total with an ask of just around 4.0 to 4.2 / over.
> (In the Tied Test, India chased 347 to tie on the 5th day.  315 in
> 90 overs is far far far too easy. )

<Snip rest>

You know Bharat, I almost don't care whether we win this match or draw
it. Of course I assume that we aren't going to lose it from here. But I
am just so so happy that we can even _talk_ about scenarios in which
India can win this match.
Seventh heaven. That's where I am.
Sorry for the lack of constructive discussion in this post but :-) :-)
;-).

Mightily Pleased
Straight_bat[And my boss asked me why I have had this goofy grin on my
face all day. What does HE know, huh?]

 
 
 

Some thoughts on Day 5 Strategy: Ind-Aus T2 D5

Post by Karthik Aghor » Fri, 16 Mar 2001 05:39:42

Agree with you.  As long as we don't lose outright, I'll take this as a
m***victory and carry the momentum forward to Chepauk.  Of course, I
want to be positive and win and all that, but I'd also love to see our
bats grind McGrath's and Gillespie's and Warne's faces in the dust ...
you know ... like Sanath did to us once?

Win or draw, forever Laxman

Karthik (#1 fan of VVSL on rsc .. don't believe anyone staked claim to
         this one yet :-))

:
: You know Bharat, I almost don't care whether we win this match or draw
: it. Of course I assume that we aren't going to lose it from here. But I
: am just so so happy that we can even _talk_ about scenarios in which
: India can win this match.
: Seventh heaven. That's where I am.
: Sorry for the lack of constructive discussion in this post but :-) :-)
: ;-).
:
: Mightily Pleased
: Straight_bat[And my boss asked me why I have had this goofy grin on my
: face all day. What does HE know, huh?]

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                                        Dept of Crop Science

Phone (W): 919-515-2705                 Raleigh, NC 27695-7620

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Some thoughts on Day 5 Strategy: Ind-Aus T2 D5

Post by Siddiq Qidwa » Fri, 16 Mar 2001 06:28:08


First of all, no "sporting" declaration.  I.e., declaring overnight is
ridiculous -- it gives Australia far far far too good of a chance.
I suspect Australia will desparately want to win this.  So they
will chase any total with an ask of just around 4.0 to 4.2 / over.
(In the Tied Test, India chased 347 to tie on the 5th day.  315 in
90 overs is far far far too easy. )

Bharat, superb post. All the possiblities you have gone thru and
the details, I don't think even the Indian think tank has covered all that
too :-)
Maybe I should send this email to the Coach or Ganguly :-) . But seriously
I will look at this match as a draw. Indians don't want to lose after a
near triple century by an Indian for the first time for the record, they
may decide to bat VVSL till close to lunch. Who knows, Dravid is
asking for a Double Century if they decide not to declare and think
they cannot win the match,
A DRAW means: Australia's streak ends and India can even the series in T3
A WIN means: India can win the series in T3
A LOSS means: India loses the Test, Series and the streak continues
The last thing you want is a LOSS and then a WIN. But the first thing
is a DRAW, because India actually stops the Aussie streak.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

So, the motivating factor is that India stops the Aussie streak. When has
that become the underlying motivation in Cricket. Sounds like a defeatist
approach to me. India's first priority should be to win the match or to draw
it if winning it all seems dangerous--but in no way should one of the
priorities be to stop the Aussie streak. Now, if turns out that way as a
by-product then well and good.

Siddiq

 
 
 

Some thoughts on Day 5 Strategy: Ind-Aus T2 D5

Post by Rocky Raccoo » Fri, 16 Mar 2001 06:29:16


Quote:
> So, the motivating factor is that India stops the Aussie streak.
When has
> that become the underlying motivation in Cricket.

The main factor is to stop the Aussie Jagannath from rolling
us over. Maybe a draw will make them lose momentum
somehow & make the 3rd match easier. If we lose the
2nd Test from here, there is absolutely no way we would
be able to save Match No.3
 
 
 

Some thoughts on Day 5 Strategy: Ind-Aus T2 D5

Post by Rocky Raccoo » Fri, 16 Mar 2001 06:52:14


Quote:
> Raju and Prasad have been wicketless
> in the first test

Mainly because they didn't play in the first test.

P.S. Would you mind posting plain text rather than HTML. This is a
text only newsgroup.

 
 
 

Some thoughts on Day 5 Strategy: Ind-Aus T2 D5

Post by Rocky Raccoo » Fri, 16 Mar 2001 07:17:00


Quote:
> I think it should be OK now?

Nope. Even this post was HTML.
 
 
 

Some thoughts on Day 5 Strategy: Ind-Aus T2 D5

Post by Siddiq Qidwa » Fri, 16 Mar 2001 07:27:04


Quote:


> > So, the motivating factor is that India stops the Aussie streak.
> When has
> > that become the underlying motivation in Cricket.

> The main factor is to stop the Aussie Jagannath from rolling
> us over. Maybe a draw will make them lose momentum
> somehow & make the 3rd match easier. If we lose the
> 2nd Test from here, there is absolutely no way we would
> be able to save Match No.3

That is true indeed. But really even if there was no such streak, India
would have had to show a lot of guts to stand up for the third test if a
defeat had happened in the second test. Remember Pakistan in Australia or
India in Australia when The Streak had not reached epic proportions.

Take care.

 
 
 

Some thoughts on Day 5 Strategy: Ind-Aus T2 D5

Post by Sanjeev Kuma » Fri, 16 Mar 2001 07:23:15

Quote:



> > I think it should be OK now?

> Nope. Even this post was HTML.

Hey, Nikhil. If you are using Netscape 4.6 or above.
Go to Edit->preferences->Mails & Newsgroups->formatting and select
"Convert the message into plain text".
 
 
 

Some thoughts on Day 5 Strategy: Ind-Aus T2 D5

Post by Rocky Raccoo » Fri, 16 Mar 2001 07:27:56


Quote:



> > > I think it should be OK now?

> > Nope. Even this post was HTML.

> Hey, Nikhil. If you are using Netscape 4.6 or above.
> Go to Edit->preferences->Mails & Newsgroups->formatting and select
> "Convert the message into plain text".

I think he is using a webbased newsclient rather than
something like tin/netscape/outlookexpress/pine.

He may be using netscape to access the webbased news
client, but that's about it.

 
 
 

Some thoughts on Day 5 Strategy: Ind-Aus T2 D5

Post by Rocel » Fri, 16 Mar 2001 10:45:28

Interesting to see that most posters have discounted the possibility of Laxman
and Dravid getting out. All it takes is one good ball or one bad decision and
the Indian tail would oblige after that.

-ROC