> > If Bermuda score 66 more runs in their innings, India will end up with a
> > victory margin of less than 243 runs (I am assuming that they win). Then,
> > even if India beat SL (assuming SL beat Bangladesh), they are out.
> > Bermuda could now knock India out of the WC, even without winning.
> > On a related note, Agarkar has been carted around by the mighty Bermudan
> > batsmen. Nice time you picked to fail, buddy.
> What kind of stupid logic is this?
> Consider the following scenarios
> i) Ind bt SLK; SLK bt Ban; Ban bt Ber (4, 4, 4, 0)
> Three way tie. India only have to be ahead of Ban NRR. Ban will have a
> -ve NRR in their loss against SLK. India is very safe in this scenario
> in terms of NRR
If SL beat Ban narrowly, and either
(i) Ban thrash Bermuda by 250+ and Ind narrowly beat SL, OR
(ii) Ban thrash Bermuda by less than 250 and Ind thrash SL
then Bangladesh could well end up with a NRR higher than SL. In that
scenario Ind and Bang would both qualify and SL would be out.
I'm beginning to think that any combination of 2 of the 3 sides going
through is about equally likely. Bangladesh beating India has just
levelled the playing field and made it an equal 3-horse race instead
of a 2-horse one. It'll be nailbiting right until the end of the
Bermuda-Bang game, assuming SL beat Bang and Ind beat SL which are the
most probable results.
I think the safest team at the moment is, ironically, India. Just a
simple win against SL, no matter how narrow, will IMO guarantee them a
spot. I think Bangladesh, should they lose to SL, will end up
regretting the way they dawdled at the end in the India match. They
could have won it about 3-4 overs earlier easily but chose not to.
After all is done and dusted, my prediction is for Ind and SL to go
through with Ind taking the points, just like most people expected/
hoped at the beginning. Bangladesh, despite a famous and convincing
victory over India, a reasonable drubbing of Bermuda and an
agonizingly close loss to SL, will end up wondering how on earth they
> ii) SLK bt Ind; Ber bt Ban; SLK bt Ban (6, 2, 2, 2)
> Three way tie again. Again India will only have to be ahead of Ban in
> NRR. Since Ban would have lost both matches, their NRR will be very
> Bottomline, in any of the scenarios India is never in competition with
> SLK's NRR, only Bangladesh's