Ind-SL -- absorbing D5 ahead

Ind-SL -- absorbing D5 ahead

Post by R Bharat Ra » Sat, 21 Nov 2009 04:25:12


144 runs behind with 88overs left (less 2 for innings change).  The
equation is simple.  Assuming India bats at 4rpo and SL can chase at
about 7 rpo for a short chase, India would need to bat about 70 overs
to save the game.

Yes, the pitch is dead, no cracks, Murali is flat, the Indian bats are
awesome, but realistically, SL needs 4 more top order wickets to
expose the tail.  That means if they take 4 wickets (not counting
Misra's) in about 45 overs, it would be a comfortable SL win.

And thats not hard.  All it needs is a couple of loose shots that are
(un)lucky to find an edge (Gambhir played and missed a couple of times
late), a rough decision or two (Dravid was quite unlucky to be given
out lbw, but hey, that happens), a ball or two that pops unexpectedly,
and India could lose those 6 wickets in a hurry.  Losing Dravid at the
close was quite a blow, because he looked particularly solid (Gambhir
too was solid, but not quite as assured).

So, yes, the Test should be saved, but India would need some luck --
in particular they need not to have any bad luck, in terms of marginal
decisions, or edging a higher percentage of lose shots -- most knocks
contain their share of play & miss, and if SL is lucky some fraction
of those will find an edge.

If we can lose 4 top-order wickets midway then SL is on top.  If we
make it to tea losing just 2 top-order wickets, then the Test should
be safe....

Bharat [who will be watching tonight]

 
 
 

Ind-SL -- absorbing D5 ahead

Post by linu » Sat, 21 Nov 2009 04:31:33


Quote:
> 144 runs behind with 88overs left (less 2 for innings change). ?The
> equation is simple. ?Assuming India bats at 4rpo and SL can chase at
> about 7 rpo for a short chase, India would need to bat about 70 overs
> to save the game.

> Yes, the pitch is dead, no cracks, Murali is flat, the Indian bats are
> awesome, but realistically, SL needs 4 more top order wickets to
> expose the tail. ?That means if they take 4 wickets (not counting
> Misra's) in about 45 overs, it would be a comfortable SL win.

> And thats not hard. ?All it needs is a couple of loose shots that are
> (un)lucky to find an edge (Gambhir played and missed a couple of times
> late), a rough decision or two (Dravid was quite unlucky to be given
> out lbw, but hey, that happens), a ball or two that pops unexpectedly,
> and India could lose those 6 wickets in a hurry. ?Losing Dravid at the
> close was quite a blow, because he looked particularly solid (Gambhir
> too was solid, but not quite as assured).

> So, yes, the Test should be saved, but India would need some luck --
> in particular they need not to have any bad luck, in terms of marginal
> decisions, or edging a higher percentage of lose shots -- most knocks
> contain their share of play & miss, and if SL is lucky some fraction
> of those will find an edge.

> If we can lose 4 top-order wickets midway then SL is on top. ?If we
> make it to tea losing just 2 top-order wickets, then the Test should
> be safe....

> Bharat [who will be watching tonight]

I don't see SL taking 8 wickets tomorrow on this track.  This is going
to be a draw for sure.

 
 
 

Ind-SL -- absorbing D5 ahead

Post by Chan » Sat, 21 Nov 2009 06:56:14


Quote:

> > 144 runs behind with 88overs left (less 2 for innings change). ?The
> > equation is simple. ?Assuming India bats at 4rpo and SL can chase at
> > about 7 rpo for a short chase, India would need to bat about 70 overs
> > to save the game.

> > Yes, the pitch is dead, no cracks, Murali is flat, the Indian bats are
> > awesome, but realistically, SL needs 4 more top order wickets to
> > expose the tail. ?That means if they take 4 wickets (not counting
> > Misra's) in about 45 overs, it would be a comfortable SL win.

> > And thats not hard. ?All it needs is a couple of loose shots that are
> > (un)lucky to find an edge (Gambhir played and missed a couple of times
> > late), a rough decision or two (Dravid was quite unlucky to be given
> > out lbw, but hey, that happens), a ball or two that pops unexpectedly,
> > and India could lose those 6 wickets in a hurry. ?Losing Dravid at the
> > close was quite a blow, because he looked particularly solid (Gambhir
> > too was solid, but not quite as assured).

> > So, yes, the Test should be saved, but India would need some luck --
> > in particular they need not to have any bad luck, in terms of marginal
> > decisions, or edging a higher percentage of lose shots -- most knocks
> > contain their share of play & miss, and if SL is lucky some fraction
> > of those will find an edge.

> > If we can lose 4 top-order wickets midway then SL is on top. ?If we
> > make it to tea losing just 2 top-order wickets, then the Test should
> > be safe....

> > Bharat [who will be watching tonight]

> I don't see SL taking 8 wickets tomorrow on this track. ?This is going
> to be a draw for sure.

Anyone want to bet that Herath will be more effective than Murali
tomorrow? The only talk is whether Murali will or will not run through
this lineup; everyone seems to have forgotten that it is in fact
Herath who has been in the better form lately and is the more likely
to make the breakthroughs. Sure, Murali has his experience and wiles
but I feel that Herath is the more confident and effective bowler at
the moment.

And let's not forget Dilshan, who has the potential of becoming the
next Aravinda (of bowling).

As for the fast men, I wonder if any cracks on the wicket would help
them too. Prasad for one is going to keep going until the bitter end;
his eyes rival Murali's in terms of the fire they contain.

Yes, D5 should see a mouth-watering tussle between the best batting
lineup in the world and one of the hungriest bowling attacks around. I
would love to see it come down to 100 to win in 15 overs for SL. With
negative bowling an option that will be far from easy. The only thing
that is 99% certain is that SL cannot lose from here.

- Chan

 
 
 

Ind-SL -- absorbing D5 ahead

Post by tendulkar.co » Sat, 21 Nov 2009 07:07:53

Quote:
> Yes, D5 should see a mouth-watering tussle between the best batting
> lineup in the world and one of the hungriest bowling attacks around.

I don't think Indian bowlers are hungry.

http://www.reliancemobileiccrankings.com/ranking/test/batting/

 
 
 

Ind-SL -- absorbing D5 ahead

Post by R Bharat Ra » Sat, 21 Nov 2009 10:14:19


Quote:

> I don't see SL taking 8 wickets tomorrow on this track. ?This is going
> to be a draw for sure.- Hide quoted text -

Its actually taking 4 top order wickets by tea.  Figure one rough
decision, one good ball, one lousy shot, and one amazing catch.  It
doesn't take a lot actually.

We should be able to see it through, but the rub of the green can play
a big role.

Bharat [will watch until teatime at least -- get the coffee pot going]