144 runs behind with 88overs left (less 2 for innings change). The
equation is simple. Assuming India bats at 4rpo and SL can chase at
about 7 rpo for a short chase, India would need to bat about 70 overs
to save the game.
Yes, the pitch is dead, no cracks, Murali is flat, the Indian bats are
awesome, but realistically, SL needs 4 more top order wickets to
expose the tail. That means if they take 4 wickets (not counting
Misra's) in about 45 overs, it would be a comfortable SL win.
And thats not hard. All it needs is a couple of loose shots that are
(un)lucky to find an edge (Gambhir played and missed a couple of times
late), a rough decision or two (Dravid was quite unlucky to be given
out lbw, but hey, that happens), a ball or two that pops unexpectedly,
and India could lose those 6 wickets in a hurry. Losing Dravid at the
close was quite a blow, because he looked particularly solid (Gambhir
too was solid, but not quite as assured).
So, yes, the Test should be saved, but India would need some luck --
in particular they need not to have any bad luck, in terms of marginal
decisions, or edging a higher percentage of lose shots -- most knocks
contain their share of play & miss, and if SL is lucky some fraction
of those will find an edge.
If we can lose 4 top-order wickets midway then SL is on top. If we
make it to tea losing just 2 top-order wickets, then the Test should
Bharat [who will be watching tonight]