Looking at the table for pool B I was just working out NZ's chances of
making the super 6's. My maths my not be too flash, so don't go flaming me
(a) West Indies win against Australia. The best option (I guess). NZ,
Pakistan and the West Indies go through (assuming NZ can beat Scotland - if
they can't then they deserve to be beaten within an inch of their lives).
(b) Australia beats West Indies. This puts the points situation between the
three teams as so:- WI 6, Aus 6, NZ 6 (if they beat Scotland). Since WI beat
NZ, NZ beat Aus, and (in this case) Aus beat WI, then they cannot be
seperated by the head to head method. So the net run-rate issue rears its
ugly head. A quick glance at the table at this point reveals the following
:- WI and Aus have fairly similar net run-rates (0.88 and 0.77
respectively), while NZ languishes on 0.00. So the "size" of the result
between Aus and WI holds the key for NZ. The possiblities:-
(i) Aus beats WI narrowly. 'Narrow' meaning that Aus' net run-rate is still
less than that of the Windies. So 1st-Pak, 2nd-WI, 3rd-Aus, 4th- NZ (on net
run-rates). So NZ is faced with the task of beating Scotland by such an
amount that their net run-rate is greater than Australia's and thus knocking
Aus out of 3rd.
(ii) Aus beats WI by a large amount. 'Large amount' meaning that Australia's
net run-rate is greater then WI's. 1-Pak, 2-Aus, 3-WI, 4-NZ. Nz need to beat
Scotland by a margin large enough to push their net run-rate higher than the
West Indies, thus knocking the Windies out of 3rd.
So NZ vs Scotland. NZ need to win. If the WI's beat Aus then any win vs
Scotland see's NZ through. If Aus win then the formula gets tougher.
If (i) <above> is true then NZ is in trouble. First they need to bat first
against Scotland. This is the only option. Batting second makes NZ's chances
of reaching the super 6's nigh on impossible (Say Scotland gets 200. NZ
needs to get it in about 12 overs(!) to pump up their runrate high enough.
Scotland out for 100? NZ needs to chase in about 6 overs. So batting second
is pretty much suicidal). Batting first they need to post a big score then
knock over Scotland cheaply. NZ get 250? need to take out the Scots for
around 60 runs. 300 would require them to bowl out Scotland for 115 or so.
350 sets the target at approx 165. All fairly big asks but definitely more
achievable than batting second.
If (ii) <above> is true then the Kiwi's chances are a little better. The
more the Aussies can beat the Windies by, the more they knock down their net
run-rate. This means NZ need to beat Scotland by less and less (than the
figures quoted above) depending on the magnitude of the Aussies win.
So thats it. Pak, WI and NZ going through would see NZ with no points in the
super sixes, whereas Pak, Aus, and NZ would see us with 2, but would require
us to have a big match against Scotland.
Well, that was a rather long-winded way to explain the situation, and it
will be all screwed up if any of the games are rained out, but I was bored
and needed something to occupy my time :-)