> India is 166/4 and by my reckoning should add at least 100 runs to
> give themselves a 50-50 shot. ?The morning will see conditions at
> their most spicy, and surviving that first hour will be key. ?The
> problem is that RSA is just 2 wickets from getting into the Indian
> tail, and their expected # of runs in this pressure situation is about
> 25. ?So India needs about 80 runs before the next two wickets fall to
> have a fighting chance.
> A target of 275 gives India a fighting chance, and anything over 325
> makes India strong favorites. ?The key, as in I1, is to dismiss Amla,
> Kallis & deVilliers for a total of 100 runs at most -- that is going
> to be very hard. ?Kallis isn't likely to get dismissed freakily, and
> if the openers can see of Zaheer Khan and save Kallis from walking in
> before the 20th over, they should be in good shape. ? ?Seriously, even
> 400 may be reachable for that trio..
Sorry to say that, but either you're being overly pessimistic or
through your hat in this case, Bharat. This is the same Indian
which dismissed South Africa for 131. I know you'll say that Zaheer
were the chief destroyers. Sreesanth and Ishant just played a
supporting act, and
Sreesanth was rather poor in his 1st spell. Also Harbhajan has been
for most of this year, and to put in Geico Caveman's words,
"Harbhajan is a batsman
masquearading as a bowler", and many RSCer's expect him to be back
to his usual
self in I2. Yet, despite all this, I don't think this South African
side has it in them to chase
400 runs, and I don't think that Amla, Kallis and deVilliers
together can score even 300 runs
in a 4th innings run chase. If this were the all-conquering
Australian side of a decade ago,
I would have given them a chance to pull off a 350+ run chase in
the 4thh innings. After all,
Gilchrist and Langer did pull off a heist in Hobart chasing 369
against Pakistan after being
128/5 at one stage.
> My heart say India will set RSA about 230 and lose by 4 wickets,
> whereas I'm hoping more like 340 (another Laxman ton to further
> burnish that 2nd innings crisis man reputation) and a 50 run victory.
I'm hoping for a target of 275 and a fight to the finish. Anything
300 would be a sure-shot win for India.