Sport Today

I was considering yesterday what would be fair odds on various outcomes
in the current serries.

Like most people in Australia, and I'm guessing, England too, I'm very
confident Australia will recover The Ashes. Although the run of play to
this point has bolstered that, this was my view immediately prior to
the toss yesterday.

I believe the most likely scoreline is Australia 3-0, though I believe
3-1 is nearly as likely. Without the intervention of the weather, the
venue most likely to produce a draw is the WACA. Competent bats going
there have found that it's a seller's market for anyone prepared to
trade their wicket for runs, Warne has generally struggled there, the
English batting is competent at worst, and the wicket should suit
Pieterson and Flintoff especially and of course, Langer, Hussey,
Gilchrist and Martyn will be on the home turf.

After that, Melbourne looks the next best chance for a draw.
Apparently, the Climate Centre says that rising moisture in the Indian
Ocean are counteracting "El Nino" and giving us a 50-50 chance of a
wetter than average summer. Boxing Day in Melbourne seems as good a
time as any for the rain to get in the way. Indeed, this might be how
England gets their win, after the Aussies, keen to play for the win,
are forced into an overly generous decalration, and England's bats
fire.

A similar scenario could operate in Sydney. We've had some weird and up
and down weather here lately, and England has over the years found the
SCG a pretty friendly place to play the Aussies.

If England somehow do retain the Ashes, then I'd say 2-2 was the most
likely scoreline. I don't believe they have the firepower to take 20
Aussie wickets for less than 700, which they are going to have to do if
they are to win without a declaration.

My odds on England to retain, prior to the beginning of play yesterday
would have been 13/2, with England to win at least one test 3-1. I
wouldn't be taking bets on Australia at all.

Fran

Well the Poms got their swing bowling working this afternoon,  but still the
bat dominated through the Aus tail.

 Without the intervention of the weather, the

Adelaide's always been a worry as well. Wickets in Melb, Syd and Bris have
favoured Aussie victoires in the last 15 years.

Competent bats going

A fast bowler's pitch, it will be an interesting match if their oin***
works with the doctor.

Disagree, Adelaide's a more even ground for both sides.

Still a few NSW players in the team.

Well, I'd be reconsidering their choice of Hayden as Langer's done well
against the Poms yesterday and last year.
Gilchrist has had a less than Gilchrist test record since day one 2005 in
England, against SA and failed again yesterday.

batsmen on notice:
hayden
gilchrist

[snip]

Jacques (who I'd have played) warming up in the wings.

More of the same will see him on the hot seat barring some stellar
keeping.

I don't see the trigger being pulled as long as other bats strike like
they did in I1. All it will take is one excellent knock from either
guy for the status quo to be restored.
--
Cheers,
SDM -- a 21st century schizoid man
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"Soundtracks For Imaginary Movies" CD released Dec 2004
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NP: nothing

The Betfair favorite is Australia 5-0, at about 4/1, then 4-0, then
3-1.  The market seems pretty bleak on England's chances right now.
...

Which happens to be the Betfair odds after two days, which shows your
pre-game odds were over-generous.

cheers,
--mt.

Explain the reaoning here. After two days, Englan's practical chances
of retaining have declined, compared with start of play. They declined
when they lost the toss, dropped further when Harmison and Anderson
bowled so poorly and still more when Australia racked up 600, and took
three cheap wickets.

My odds now would be closer to 15/1

Fran