quarter final results (lower bracket)

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by big ben » Fri, 28 Mar 2003 10:36:16


capriati d. shaughnessy 4-6     7-6(5)  6-4
        shaughnessy played better than i thought she would play.
        shaughnessy was wailing away on her serves with max/average
        servce speeds of 113 mph/104 mph, and she had 9 aces in the
        match.  a real errorfest of a match with capriati and shaughnessy
        hitting into 41 and 48 unforced errors respectively.

rubin d. henin-hardenne 6-3     6-2
        i think this makes rubin #8.  she won this one in a rout.
        henin only got 42% of her first serves in but it didn't really
        matter because her winning percentage on first and second serves
        was equal (and equally poor: 45%).  "lloyd" commented about
        henin-hardenne's serve, and it really does seem that she has a
        very unproductive serve for the amount of effort that she seems
        in serving fast.  her max/average serve speeds were 111 mph/104 mph;
        a 7 mph speed differential, which suggests that henin-hardenne was
        wailing away on her serve for the entire match.  yet she did not
        have a single ace in the match.  even worse, henin-hardenne lost
        5 of her 8 service games.

i have no idea how the semifinal matchup between rubin and capriati will go
but i'd much rather see rubin win than capriati.

 
 
 

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by Lloy » Fri, 28 Mar 2003 11:48:55

henin-hardenne 6-3 6-2

Quote:
> i think this makes rubin #8.  she won this one in a rout.
> henin only got 42% of her first serves in but it didn't really
> matter because her winning percentage on first and second serves
> was equal (and equally poor: 45%).  "lloyd" commented about
> henin-hardenne's serve, and it really does seem that she has a
> very unproductive serve for the amount of effort that she seems
> in serving fast.  her max/average serve speeds were 111 mph/104 mph;
> a 7 mph speed differential, which suggests that henin-hardenne was
> wailing away on her serve for the entire match.  yet she did not
> have a single ace in the match.  even worse, henin-hardenne lost
> 5 of her 8 service games.

Good point. Either HH is getting bad advice or she's ignoring it. I'll just
say that unless she changes her serving strategy and starts working on
placement, disguise, spin, and variety, she's never going to be a real
force.
       Apparently most of her training is of an intensely physical nature;
fair enough but she needs to see that her comparative advantage lies in her
tennis skills and she needs to maximize these to compete. She's never going
to be a Venus or Serena in physical capabilities.

 
 
 

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by Lloy » Fri, 28 Mar 2003 12:18:46

 > henin only got 42% of her first serves in but it didn't really

Quote:
> matter because her winning percentage on first and second serves
> was equal (and equally poor: 45%).

Actually 45% on second serve is quite good. If she'd won around 65% on first
serve (hardly a difficult proposition) she would've made it a real contest.

 
 
 

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by nemanj » Fri, 28 Mar 2003 15:05:05


Quote:


>> henin only got 42% of her first serves in but it didn't really
>> matter because her winning percentage on first and second serves
>> was equal (and equally poor: 45%).

> Actually 45% on second serve is quite good. If she'd won around 65% on first
> serve (hardly a difficult proposition) she would've made it a real contest.

Maybe 45% on second serve is passable if you're Ivanisevic, and win 90% of
your first serve points. For someone like Henin, that figure needs to be
around 60% to be comfortable.

Nemanja

 
 
 

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by Sakari Lu » Fri, 28 Mar 2003 21:20:17



Quote:
>rubin d. henin-hardenne     6-3     6-2

As said before the match, this was quite expected, having watched both
of these players recently.

Quote:
>i have no idea how the semifinal matchup between rubin and capriati will go
>but i'd much rather see rubin win than capriati.

Rubin has a good chance even there, but it is less certain.

Anyway, Clijsters will beat either of them in the final  :-)

 
 
 

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by G. M. Lup » Fri, 28 Mar 2003 21:53:13

: i have no idea how the semifinal matchup
: between rubin and capriati will go
: but i'd much rather see rubin win than capriati.

I agree.  How has she fared against Jennifer in the past?

Matt Lupo

--
G. M. Lupo a.k.a. matt at lupo dot com

Up on the hill, they think I'm okay
Or so they say...

 
 
 

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by G. M. Lup » Fri, 28 Mar 2003 21:59:42

: Good point. Either HH is getting bad
: advice or she's ignoring it. I'll just
: say that unless she changes her serving
: strategy and starts working on
: placement, disguise, spin, and variety,
: she's never going to be a real
: force.
:        Apparently most of her training is
: of an intensely physical nature;
: fair enough but she needs to see that
: her comparative advantage lies in her
: tennis skills and she needs to maximize
: these to compete. She's never going
: to be a Venus or Serena in physical
: capabilities.

I think this was the mistake Hingis made with Venus and Serena (and to some
extent Capriati) as well.  Hingis felt she had to keep getting physically
stronger when, with the exception of the last Australian Open against
Jennifer, her matches were usually won less by outlasting the Williams
sisters and Capriati than out-playing them.  Unfortunately, Venus and Serena
became better players in addition to having that extra endurance.  But,
having that extra reserve in the tank definitely is an advantage as was
witnessed in Hingis' final loss to Capriati at the Australian.

Matt Lupo

--
G. M. Lupo a.k.a. matt at lupo dot com

Up on the hill, they think I'm okay
Or so they say...

 
 
 

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by Robert B. Walt » Fri, 28 Mar 2003 23:09:47

Quote:




> >> henin only got 42% of her first serves in but it didn't really
> >> matter because her winning percentage on first and second serves
> >> was equal (and equally poor: 45%).

> > Actually 45% on second serve is quite good. If she'd won around 65% on first
> > serve (hardly a difficult proposition) she would've made it a real contest.

> Maybe 45% on second serve is passable if you're Ivanisevic, and win 90% of
> your first serve points. For someone like Henin, that figure needs to be
> around 60% to be comfortable.

More to the point, 45% on second serves is trouble if you only
get 45% of first serves in (which is pretty typical). Henin
serves big first serves by leaving herself with absolutely NO
margin for error. Henin really does need to look at her strategy:
A powerful but inaccurate first serve and a wimpy second serve.
She needs an in-between delivery -- one she can put in, say, 70%
of the time but that isn't a "gimme" like her second serve.

Because winning 45% of second serve points against Rubin probably
translates into winning about 30% against Serena.

--
Many a man cries 'werre, werre' that wot not well what werre be.
         -- Geoffrey Chaucer (probably lightly paraphrased)

 
 
 

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by Michael Scarpit » Sat, 29 Mar 2003 00:46:32

Quote:




> >> henin only got 42% of her first serves in but it didn't really
> >> matter because her winning percentage on first and second serves
> >> was equal (and equally poor: 45%).

> > Actually 45% on second serve is quite good. If she'd won around 65% on first
> > serve (hardly a difficult proposition) she would've made it a real contest.

> Maybe 45% on second serve is passable if you're Ivanisevic, and win 90% of
> your first serve points. For someone like Henin, that figure needs to be
> around 60% to be comfortable.

> Nemanja

I watched a few minutes of this pathetic excuse for tennis. Henin
needs to learn how to play, as she simply doesn't know how, and it's
quite obvious.
 
 
 

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by big ben » Sat, 29 Mar 2003 02:34:37

Quote:


> : i have no idea how the semifinal matchup
> : between rubin and capriati will go
> : but i'd much rather see rubin win than capriati.

> I agree.  How has she fared against Jennifer in the past?

they go back quite a way but i don't think that they have played against each
other in about 3 years.  but their career head to head record is pretty close.
 
 
 

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by big ben » Sat, 29 Mar 2003 03:45:32

Quote:



> >i have no idea how the semifinal matchup between rubin and capriati will go
> >but i'd much rather see rubin win than capriati.

> Rubin has a good chance even there, but it is less certain.

> Anyway, Clijsters will beat either of them in the final  :-)

it really sucks when venus or serena play these tournaments and messes things
up doesn't it?   :-)
 
 
 

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by Sakari Lu » Sat, 29 Mar 2003 08:16:07



Quote:



>> >i have no idea how the semifinal matchup between rubin and capriati will go
>> >but i'd much rather see rubin win than capriati.

>> Rubin has a good chance even there, but it is less certain.

>> Anyway, Clijsters will beat either of them in the final  :-)

>it really sucks when venus or serena play these tournaments and messes things
>up doesn't it?   :-)

See Karen, it is ALWAYS "venus and/or serena" and always in that
order.

Full credit to Serena. She is doing really well with her unbeaten
streak. Obviously this time Clijsters wasn't at her best. She said
after the match that she has played too much, and she will take 4-5
weeks off after this week.

 
 
 

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by big ben » Sat, 29 Mar 2003 08:55:01

Quote:



> >it really sucks when venus or serena play these tournaments and messes things
> >up doesn't it?   :-)

> See Karen, it is ALWAYS "venus and/or serena" and always in that
> order.

given that clijsters doesn't defeat either venus *or* serena if either one is
at a tournament it makes it unlikely that clijsters will win.

Quote:
> Full credit to Serena. She is doing really well with her unbeaten
> streak. Obviously this time Clijsters wasn't at her best. She said
> after the match that she has played too much, and she will take 4-5
> weeks off after this week.

serena has defeated clijsters 8 out of the 9 times that they played, and
clijsters has been crushing her opponents on a fairly consistent basis this
year.  how clijsters was doing had less to do with the outcome of the match
than how serena was doing.  as stated before, clijsters does not have a way
of generating her own offense when facing venus *or* serena, so her chances
of winning are dependent upon the hope that she is the beneficiary of a lot
of unforced errors.  that kind of strategy puts the outcome of the match in
the hands of the opponent.
 
 
 

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by Lloy » Sat, 29 Mar 2003 14:05:46

Quote:

> Maybe 45% on second serve is passable if you're Ivanisevic, and win 90% of
> your first serve points. For someone like Henin, that figure needs to be
> around 60% to be comfortable.

In fact it was 46% which means that she was winning almost half the points
(despite your assumption 50% is about all you can consistently ask for
against quality opposition). Assuming a significantly greater winning % on
first serve (which is supposedly a given) it should mean she'd hold the
majority of service games. The fact is she's losing as many service games as
she's holding. Against Venus in the AO she broke 3 out of 9 and against
Rubin she also broke twice but still lost easily. It's obvious from the
stats that her first serve is her Achille's Heel and it's not due to lack of
power so clearly it's a failure to use the serve intelligently that's
responsible for her losses.
 
 
 

quarter final results (lower bracket)

Post by Lloy » Sat, 29 Mar 2003 14:09:12


and a wimpy second serve.

In fact, HH has one of the best second-serves in the game - a high-bouncing
kicker that is hard to attack.

Quote:
> Because winning 45% of second serve points against Rubin probably
> translates into winning about 30% against Serena.

First, this was Rubin at her occasionally brilliant top (not average Rubin),
secondly it just isn't true about your hypothetical against-Serena scenario.
She does quite well on second-serve in her matches against SW.