Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by felange » Mon, 28 Jan 2013 01:32:36


Where do you all see it?

Having digested much previous footage, weighed up the matchup past and
present, and having crunched the numbers (had a wee think ;) ) .... I am
beginning to soften to Murray's chances. Murray just seems to be able to get
under the Djokovic skin.....thanks quite probably to the fact that his
strengths mirror those of Djokovic pretty well - strong and reliable from
both wings, great fitness and mobility, great defence and great return of
serve. When it becomes a bit more junky and mixed up, Murray starts to shine
a bit brighter than his contemporary.

I am looking forward to seeing how Murray approaches this match. The US Open
match was a bit scrappy.....and certainly if Murray can invovle Djoke in
this type of match, he will have more than his fair share of chances. But I
can't help feeling that this is his time to throw down the gauntlet.....a
statement match from Murray, where he pulls it all together and attempts to
win completely on his own terms. We saw that Stan had the power to hit
through Nole on this court, and Murray certainly now is more than capable of
doing similar.....but with the depth of game to back it up.

I still have Nole as the favourite going into this match, but the pressure
has to be all with him. Last year was less successful than he would have
hoped, and he is in danger of being eclipsed by his oncoming foe. Failure to
defend here would leave him in the uncomfortable position of being the only
one of the top guys without a slam title. I see it as quite important for
Djokovic to enter the match at a high level - something he has not been
traditionally great at. If he can take the first set, then the job for
Murray becomes extremely difficult. For all the renewed maturity, Murray
still has brittle patches....and these are sure to rear their head if he
were to find himself a set down with a 5-setter in his legs.

In sum then, the first set could be crucial. If Murray takes it, then it is
game on. If Djoke takes it, I don't see Murray pulling back through that to
victory. Expect an explosive start!

Basically, I haven't got an effing clue who takes this. :)

The market odds are:

Djokovic  -  1.57
Murray     -  2.74

-------------------

Djokovic 3-0   - 3.85
Djokovic 3-1   - 4.20
Djokovic 3-2   - 6.40
Murray    3-0   - 11.50
Murray    3-1   - 6.80
Murray    3-2    -7.40

 
 
 

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by AliA » Mon, 28 Jan 2013 02:35:09


Quote:
> Where do you all see it?

> Having digested much previous footage, weighed up the matchup past and
> present, and having crunched the numbers (had a wee think ;) ) .... I
> am beginning to soften to Murray's chances. Murray just seems to be
> able to get under the Djokovic skin.....thanks quite probably to the
> fact that his strengths mirror those of Djokovic pretty well - strong
> and reliable from both wings, great fitness and mobility, great
> defence and great return of serve. When it becomes a bit more junky
> and mixed up, Murray starts to shine a bit brighter than his
> contemporary.

> I am looking forward to seeing how Murray approaches this match. The
> US Open match was a bit scrappy.....and certainly if Murray can
> invovle Djoke in this type of match, he will have more than his fair
> share of chances. But I can't help feeling that this is his time to
> throw down the gauntlet.....a statement match from Murray, where he
> pulls it all together and attempts to win completely on his own terms.
> We saw that Stan had the power to hit through Nole on this court, and
> Murray certainly now is more than capable of doing similar.....but
> with the depth of game to back it up.

> I still have Nole as the favourite going into this match, but the
> pressure has to be all with him. Last year was less successful than he
> would have hoped, and he is in danger of being eclipsed by his
> oncoming foe. Failure to defend here would leave him in the
> uncomfortable position of being the only one of the top guys without a
> slam title. I see it as quite important for Djokovic to enter the
> match at a high level - something he has not been traditionally great
> at. If he can take the first set, then the job for Murray becomes
> extremely difficult. For all the renewed maturity, Murray still has
> brittle patches....and these are sure to rear their head if he were to
> find himself a set down with a 5-setter in his legs.

> In sum then, the first set could be crucial. If Murray takes it, then
> it is game on. If Djoke takes it, I don't see Murray pulling back
> through that to victory. Expect an explosive start!

> Basically, I haven't got an effing clue who takes this. :)

Since before the USO 2012 final, I am rooting for Murray unless he plays
Roger.

Murray in 4 or 5.

 
 
 

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by Ulysse » Mon, 28 Jan 2013 04:11:13


Quote:

> > Where do you all see it?

> > Having digested much previous footage, weighed up the matchup past and
> > present, and having crunched the numbers (had a wee think ;) ) .... I
> > am beginning to soften to Murray's chances. Murray just seems to be
> > able to get under the Djokovic skin.....thanks quite probably to the
> > fact that his strengths mirror those of Djokovic pretty well - strong
> > and reliable from both wings, great fitness and mobility, great
> > defence and great return of serve. When it becomes a bit more junky
> > and mixed up, Murray starts to shine a bit brighter than his
> > contemporary.

> > I am looking forward to seeing how Murray approaches this match. The
> > US Open match was a bit scrappy.....and certainly if Murray can
> > invovle Djoke in this type of match, he will have more than his fair
> > share of chances. But I can't help feeling that this is his time to
> > throw down the gauntlet.....a statement match from Murray, where he
> > pulls it all together and attempts to win completely on his own terms.
> > We saw that Stan had the power to hit through Nole on this court, and
> > Murray certainly now is more than capable of doing similar.....but
> > with the depth of game to back it up.

> > I still have Nole as the favourite going into this match, but the
> > pressure has to be all with him. Last year was less successful than he
> > would have hoped, and he is in danger of being eclipsed by his
> > oncoming foe. Failure to defend here would leave him in the
> > uncomfortable position of being the only one of the top guys without a
> > slam title. I see it as quite important for Djokovic to enter the
> > match at a high level - something he has not been traditionally great
> > at. If he can take the first set, then the job for Murray becomes
> > extremely difficult. For all the renewed maturity, Murray still has
> > brittle patches....and these are sure to rear their head if he were to
> > find himself a set down with a 5-setter in his legs.

> > In sum then, the first set could be crucial. If Murray takes it, then
> > it is game on. If Djoke takes it, I don't see Murray pulling back
> > through that to victory. Expect an explosive start!

> > Basically, I haven't got an effing clue who takes this. :)

> Since before the USO 2012 final, I am rooting for Murray unless he plays
> Roger.

> Murray in 4 or 5.

Djoker in 4 tight sets. Murray will probably win the first set, but
the fact Djoker consistently comes back to win matches when he's in a
hole is a huge psychological boost for him. It will be 4 or 5 hour of
sheer boredom, like all their matches are against one another.

Then we have to endure another tacky gorilla-screaming "celebration"
while Nole rips off his shirt and shruts around like a juiced-up Hulk.

 
 
 

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by TT » Mon, 28 Jan 2013 04:34:06

26.1.2013 18:32, felangey kirjoitti:

Quote:
> Djokovic  -  1.57
> Murray     -  2.74

> -------------------

> Djokovic 3-0   - 3.85
> Djokovic 3-1   - 4.20
> Djokovic 3-2   - 6.40
> Murray    3-0   - 11.50
> Murray    3-1   - 6.80
> Murray    3-2    -7.40

Djokovic winning 3-0 or 3-1 odds are wrong: With 1.57 aka 64%
probability for the win it's more probable that Murray will get at least
one set than lose in straights. Just saying.

Also, total of set odds amounts to less than 100% returns...

 
 
 

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by TT » Mon, 28 Jan 2013 04:35:56

26.1.2013 18:32, felangey kirjoitti:

Quote:
> Where do you all see it?

> Having digested much previous footage, weighed up the matchup past and
> present, and having crunched the numbers (had a wee think ;) ) .... I am
> beginning to soften to Murray's chances.

Then you have crunched them wrong...
 
 
 

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by felange » Mon, 28 Jan 2013 05:01:35


Quote:
> 26.1.2013 18:32, felangey kirjoitti:
>> Djokovic  -  1.57
>> Murray     -  2.74

>> -------------------

>> Djokovic 3-0   - 3.85
>> Djokovic 3-1   - 4.20
>> Djokovic 3-2   - 6.40
>> Murray    3-0   - 11.50
>> Murray    3-1   - 6.80
>> Murray    3-2    -7.40

> Djokovic winning 3-0 or 3-1 odds are wrong: With 1.57 aka 64% probability
> for the win it's more probable that Murray will get at least one set than
> lose in straights. Just saying.

The odds are not "wrong"....you just disagree with them. The market sets its
own price, where money talks. Odds offered at a price odds are requested =
market price.

Quote:
> Also, total of set odds amounts to less than 100% returns...

Overround, including Betfair commission.
http://www.bettingmarket.com/overround.htm
 
 
 

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by Sakari Lun » Mon, 28 Jan 2013 05:17:44



Quote:
>Where do you all see it?

In all rational, irrational, factual and emotional levels I am fairly
sure Djoker will win. But there is some voice telling me that it is
not that certain after all.

That's my position...

 
 
 

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by TT » Mon, 28 Jan 2013 05:21:26

26.1.2013 22:01, felangey kirjoitti:

Quote:
> The odds are not "wrong"....you just disagree with them. The market sets
> its own price, where money talks. Odds offered at a price odds are
> requested = market price.

I'm aware how it works. The odds are still wrong.

As you can see in my post in another thread where I talked about odds
for Fed winning sets... where most likely outcome was Fed winning one
set... Now with odds of Djokovic winning at 63% means that this match is
expected to have smaller margin on average than Murray-Federer - so
Murray is even more likely to win at least one set than Federer was
yesterday...

 
 
 

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by felange » Fri, 25 Jan 2013 18:46:43

Quote:
> Then you have crunched them wrong...

You see no way through for the Scot? All Nole?
 
 
 

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by TT » Mon, 28 Jan 2013 05:28:53

26.1.2013 22:17, Sakari Lund kirjoitti:

Quote:


>> Where do you all see it?

> In all rational, irrational, factual and emotional levels I am fairly
> sure Djoker will win. But there is some voice telling me that it is
> not that certain after all.

> That's my position...

Of course it's not certain, at betfair odds of 63%... just likely.
 
 
 

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by TT » Mon, 28 Jan 2013 05:35:04

24.1.2013 11:46, felangey kirjoitti:

Quote:
>> Then you have crunched them wrong...

> You see no way through for the Scot? All Nole?

Murray has his chances, but Djoke has better...

Interesting philosophical argument: If indeed Murray's chances are
zero... if Djoke plays as well as in the semi the odds probably are
close to zero. But odds reflect the chance that he won't play that well.

I think it's rather clear that Djoke is a better player, and probably in
better form as well. But that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to win
tomorrow.

If you have some god given insight on how they will react to occasion
tomorrow, good for you. I don't.

 
 
 

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by TT » Mon, 28 Jan 2013 05:35:28

26.1.2013 22:35, TT kirjoitti:

Quote:
> 24.1.2013 11:46, felangey kirjoitti:
>>> Then you have crunched them wrong...

>> You see no way through for the Scot? All Nole?

> Murray has his chances, but Djoke has better...

> Interesting philosophical argument: If indeed Murray's chances are
> zero... if Djoke plays as well as in the semi the odds probably are
> close to zero. But odds reflect the chance that he won't play that well.

> I think it's rather clear that Djoke is a better player, and probably in
> better form as well. But that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to win
> tomorrow.

> If you have some god given insight on how they will react to occasion
> tomorrow, good for you. I don't.

...Cause I'm an atheist. :-P
 
 
 

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by tjg » Mon, 28 Jan 2013 05:36:44


Quote:
> Basically, I haven't got an effing clue who takes this. :)

> The market odds are:

> Djokovic  -  1.57
> Murray     -  2.74

> -------------------

> Djokovic 3-0   - 3.85
> Djokovic 3-1   - 4.20
> Djokovic 3-2   - 6.40
> Murray    3-0   - 11.50
> Murray    3-1   - 6.80
> Murray    3-2    -7.40

Djokovic will thrash Murray 3-0
 
 
 

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by jdeluis » Mon, 28 Jan 2013 05:47:41


Quote:
> In all rational, irrational, factual and emotional levels I am fairly
> sure Djoker will win. But there is some voice telling me that it is
> not that certain after all.

You and me both.  He looked like a god when he demolished Ferrer, but I have
to remember Ferrer was playing relatively poorly.  Murray also looked better
than I'd ever seen him against Federer, who himself looked sub-par in some
ways (serve, poor tactics) but really good in others (backhand).  Still,
Federer took him to 5 so I expect he'll have a much harder time against
Djokovic.  I'm a bit e***d about this one, even though I don't usually
enjoy encounters between these two.
 
 
 

Australian Open 2013 Mens Final - N.Djokovic vs A.Murray...

Post by felange » Fri, 25 Jan 2013 18:39:48

Quote:
> If you have some god given insight on how they will react to occasion
> tomorrow, good for you.

Which part of "Basically, I haven't got an effing clue who takes this" makes
you think I have god given insight to this one! :)