Ericsson Open draw thoughts

Ericsson Open draw thoughts

Post by steffi_gra.. » Sat, 25 Mar 2000 04:00:00


Well, I'm surprised no one's said anything about the draw. It looks
pretty interesting to me. (operative part of that sentence being "to
me") Interesting first-round match-ups:

FIRST HALF
----------
Alina Jidkova vs. Tamarine Tanasugarn
Holly Parkinson vs. Magdalena Grzybowska
Olga Barabanschikova vs. Tara Snyder
Joanette Kruger vs. Karina Habsudova
Tatiana Poutchek vs. Kristie Boogert

Here's a *really* interesting part of the draw (for quite a number of
people, I'm sure).

Anna Kournikova (bye)
Bacheva vs. Hopkins

Srebotnik vs. Spirlea
Natasha Zvereva (bye)

SECOND HALF
-----------
Rita Grande vs. Magdalena Maleeva
Amelie Cocheteux vs. Paola Suarez
Fabiola Zuluaga vs. Iva Majoli  <-- someone's sure to be happy about
                               this. I personally don't care too much.
Cara Black vs. Asa Carlsson
Anastasia Myskina vs. Alexandra Stevenson <-- I'd definitely catch this
                               match if I were there right now.
Anna Smashnova vs. Tina Pisnik
Mirjana Lucic vs. Anne Kremer

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Ericsson Open draw thoughts

Post by Ted » Sat, 25 Mar 2000 04:00:00

Quote:

> Well, I'm surprised no one's said anything about the draw. It looks
> pretty interesting to me. (operative part of that sentence being "to
> me")

Me too.  I was doing a bit of number crunching, and it looks as though
Hingis could beat Serena Williams in the finals, with Serena beating
Davenport in the semis, and Hingis could still fall to #2 thanks to the
removal of Hilton Head '99 from the WTA results.

Consider that Hingis, after IW, leads Davenport by 191 points.  With
Hingis' 394 points from Hilton Head removed, and 2 points from the "19th"
tournament, Wimbledon, added, Hingis would have to make up 201 points on
Davenport.  Beating Seles in the semifinals and Serena Williams in the
finals would give Hingis 86 quality points, plus an extra 143 round points,
for 229 points gained overall, or a lead of 28.  However, Hingis is just
unlucky enough that Davenport plays #35 Anne Kremer in the round of 64 --
the worst player who provides Davenport 15 quality points.  At the same
time, Hingis plays Maureen Drake, who's just outside the Top 75 and is thus
only worth 4 quality points and not 8.  That's 11 of the 28 extra points
right there.  Hingis is just lucky that Likhovtseva is ranked 17th and not
16th.

If Clijsters beats Schett and somebody knocks Conchita Martinez out before
the quarters, then it would be more likely for Hingis to fall to #2.

But it gets better.  Suppose Hingis does fall to #2, and Davenport decides
to play Hilton Head instead of Amelia Island.  When last year's Amelia
Island results fall off the WTA rankings, Davenport would probably fall
back to #2!

BTW: My system is such that, if seeds hold relatively to form, even if
Davenport lost in the semis to Serena and Serena lost to Hingis, Hingis
would still remain #2.  Sometime over the weekend I'll put the math showing
this up on my web-page.

--Ted of Ted's Tennis


 
 
 

Ericsson Open draw thoughts

Post by Robert B. Wal » Sat, 25 Mar 2000 04:00:00

[ ... ]

Quote:
> Me too.  I was doing a bit of number crunching, and it looks as though
> Hingis could beat Serena Williams in the finals, with Serena beating
> Davenport in the semis, and Hingis could still fall to #2 thanks to the
> removal of Hilton Head '99 from the WTA results.

To be nitpicky, the draw says that Davenport faces Pierce, not Serena
Williams, in the SF. Now I won't argue that Serena is probably more
likely to come through. But Pierce is the one seeded for the semis.

Of course, Tauziat is seeded for the semis on the other side, and
we all *know* she won't be there. :-)

But your basic contention is right: If Davenport reaches the semis,
beating the top players all along the way, Davenport is #1 no matter
*what* Hingis does.

[ ... ]

Quote:
> But it gets better.  Suppose Hingis does fall to #2, and Davenport decides
> to play Hilton Head instead of Amelia Island.  When last year's Amelia
> Island results fall off the WTA rankings, Davenport would probably fall
> back to #2!

Davenport is playing *both* green clay events. Hingis is playing neither.
Davenport will surely be #1 after the green clay season, no matter what the
results at the Ericsson.

I don't know what Hingis is thinking, but she isn't thinking it very
well. :-)

--
Robert B. Waltz

"There are two things, science and opinion; the former begets
knowledge, the latter ignorance." -- Hipparchus

 
 
 

Ericsson Open draw thoughts

Post by geert calliau » Sat, 25 Mar 2000 04:00:00



Quote:



[....]

Quote:
> But it gets better.  Suppose Hingis does fall to #2, and Davenport
decides
> to play Hilton Head instead of Amelia Island.  When last year's
Amelia
> Island results fall off the WTA rankings, Davenport would probably
fall
> back to #2!

??????

Davenport got all of 27 points at Amelia Island last year and she will
probably come out of the Ericsson as #1 with a lead that's probably a
lot larger than that. So she will NOT "probably" fall back to #2.
I know that rankings reflect performances of the past 12 months, but
even so I think it's now starting to get long overdue that Davenport
reaches the #1 spot. She now really deserves it. Time will tell if she
has the stamina to hang on to it.

GPC

 
 
 

Ericsson Open draw thoughts

Post by Tedstenni » Sat, 25 Mar 2000 04:00:00

Quote:


>  [ ... ]

>> Me too.  I was doing a bit of number crunching, and it looks
as though
>> Hingis could beat Serena Williams in the finals, with Serena
beating
>> Davenport in the semis, and Hingis could still fall to #2
thanks to the
>> removal of Hilton Head '99 from the WTA results.

> To be nitpicky, the draw says that Davenport faces Pierce, not
Serena
> Williams, in the SF. Now I won't argue that Serena is probably
more
> likely to come through. But Pierce is the one seeded for the
semis.

> Of course, Tauziat is seeded for the semis on the other side,
and
> we all *know* she won't be there. :-)

> But your basic contention is right: If Davenport reaches the
semis,
> beating the top players all along the way, Davenport is #1 no
matter
> *what* Hingis does.

Actually, if some the draw had opened up for Davenport, with,
say, Pisnik beating Talaja; or Appelmans or Morariu making the
quarters, I think Hingis could have remained #1.  But now that
Schett's been knocked out, Hingis can say good-bye to #1.

(It would have been nice to have every player in the 3d round be
in the top 60 under my system, so that I could start editing the
web-pages for players ranked below #60.  ;-)

Of course, I'd expect yet another Hingis-Davenport final.

Quote:
>  [ ... ]

>> But it gets better.  Suppose Hingis does fall to #2, and
Davenport decides
>> to play Hilton Head instead of Amelia Island.  When last
year's Amelia
>> Island results fall off the WTA rankings, Davenport would
probably fall
>> back to #2!

>  Davenport is playing *both* green clay events. Hingis is
playing neither.
>  Davenport will surely be #1 after the green clay season, no
matter what the
>  results at the Ericsson.

Thanks for the information!

Quote:
>  I don't know what Hingis is thinking, but she isn't thinking
it very
>  well. :-)

Clearly she isn't thinking about being #1.  Let's hope she's
thinking about (finally) winning the French Open.

--Ted of Ted's Tennis

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Ericsson Open draw thoughts

Post by Tedstenni » Sat, 25 Mar 2000 04:00:00

Quote:



>> [....]

>> But it gets better.  Suppose Hingis does fall to #2, and
>> Davenport decides to play Hilton Head instead of Amelia
>> Island.  When last year's Amelia Island results fall off the
>> WTA rankings, Davenport would probably fall back to #2!

>  ??????

>  Davenport got all of 27 points at Amelia Island last year and
> she will probably come out of the Ericsson as #1 with a lead
> that's probably a lot larger than that.

I think you mis-read my original post.  It was based on the
assumption that Davenport lost in the semis at the Ericsson.
This would have given her a lead over Hingis which was less than
27 points.  And as Robert Waltz pointed out, Davenport is
committed to both green clay events.  So for my scenario actually
to happen, Davenport would have to lose in the 2R at Amelia
Island.

Quote:
> So she will NOT "probably" fall back to #2. I know that
> rankings reflect performances of the past 12 months, but even
> so I think it's now starting to get long overdue that Davenport
> reaches the #1 spot. She now really deserves it.

Well, she's certainly #1 under my alternate rankings, and will
remain at #1 if she makes the semis at the Ericsson.  If she were
to lose before that, Hingis could overtake her, but it would only
be for one week, because I set up my schedule to have last year's
Hilton Head come off the system the week after the Ericsson (ie.
during the open week).

Quote:
> Time will tell if she has the stamina to hang on to it.

Well, she's almost a lock to keep it through the French -- she's
got so few points to defend.  I won't look any farther until some
of the clay-court season unfolds.

--Ted of Ted's Tennis

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