Reasonable Expectations for Rafa clay results in 2013

Reasonable Expectations for Rafa clay results in 2013

Post by Patrick Keho » Mon, 08 Apr 2013 04:20:16


Rafa long lay off followed by titles on clay and then Masters1000 on hardcourt...

Impressive results... Rafa early favourite for Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome and of course French Open...

If we can TRY and be objective here, what do we think are his chances at:
1) a sweep
2) MC and Rome double with FO
3) at least one in the run up and an 8th FO crown
4) all efforts just to win 8th
5) Rafa has injury or run of bad play and doesn't win any

I assume #5 is ALMOST impossilbe UNLESS injury bug bites, but aside from that, surely no way he goes 0 for 4 on his beloved clay!

P

 
 
 

Reasonable Expectations for Rafa clay results in 2013

Post by Sakari Lun » Mon, 08 Apr 2013 04:32:41

On Sat, 6 Apr 2013 12:20:16 -0700 (PDT), Patrick Kehoe

Quote:

>Rafa long lay off followed by titles on clay and then Masters1000 on hardcourt...

>Impressive results... Rafa early favourite for Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome and of course French Open...

>If we can TRY and be objective here, what do we think are his chances at:
>1) a sweep
>2) MC and Rome double with FO
>3) at least one in the run up and an 8th FO crown
>4) all efforts just to win 8th
>5) Rafa has injury or run of bad play and doesn't win any

>I assume #5 is ALMOST impossilbe UNLESS injury bug bites, but aside from that, surely no way he goes 0 for 4 on his beloved clay!

Reasonable expectations have to be very high now, when he is in good
enough form to win a HC Masters, and Djoker is not in top form.

But I won't predict in any more detail now.

 
 
 

Reasonable Expectations for Rafa clay results in 2013

Post by Ulysse » Mon, 08 Apr 2013 04:35:30


Quote:
> Rafa long lay off followed by titles on clay and then Masters1000 on hardcourt...

> Impressive results... Rafa early favourite for Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome and of course French Open...

> If we can TRY and be objective here, what do we think are his chances at:
> 1) a sweep
> 2) MC and Rome double with FO
> 3) at least one in the run up and an 8th FO crown
> 4) all efforts just to win 8th
> 5) Rafa has injury or run of bad play and doesn't win any

> I assume #5 is ALMOST impossilbe UNLESS injury bug bites, but aside from that, surely no way he goes 0 for 4 on his beloved clay!

> P

A lot is going to depend on Djoker's form, which is currently abysmal.
I don't think he will ever approach his 2011 level but he's still
capable of beating Nadal on clay. If he suddenly gets confident and
starts playing near peak-level, who knows what will happen?

I think if Nadal overplays on the clay he will possibly not win the
FO. That means he must drop Barcelona from his schedule. If he's
savvy, he limits his clay tournaments to MC, Madrid and Rome. Hell, he
should even dump Madrid since he doesn't enjoy playing there and has
few points to defend. None of these tune ups mean anything for his
legacy whereas an 8th FO would be huge.

I will take #2.

 
 
 

Reasonable Expectations for Rafa clay results in 2013

Post by Court_ » Mon, 08 Apr 2013 04:42:11


Quote:
> On Sat, 6 Apr 2013 12:20:16 -0700 (PDT), Patrick Kehoe


> >Rafa long lay off followed by titles on clay and then Masters1000 on hardcourt...

> >Impressive results... Rafa early favourite for Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome and of course French Open...

> >If we can TRY and be objective here, what do we think are his chances at:
> >1) a sweep
> >2) MC and Rome double with FO
> >3) at least one in the run up and an 8th FO crown
> >4) all efforts just to win 8th
> >5) Rafa has injury or run of bad play and doesn't win any

> >I assume #5 is ALMOST impossilbe UNLESS injury bug bites, but aside from that, surely no way he goes 0 for 4 on his beloved clay!

> Reasonable expectations have to be very high now, when he is in good
> enough form to win a HC Masters, and Djoker is not in top form.

> But I won't predict in any more detail now.

First of all, number 5 on your list is not an option. When is Nadal
usually badly injured during clay season? He can turn his injuries on
and off depending on what time of year it is don't you know!

Secondly, imo, Nadal will win most of those clay tune-ups prior to the
FO, he may lose one of them and right now I say he is pretty much a
lock to win the FO unless we see the Djokovic of 2011 on clay appear
again and even that Djokovic was not good enough to win the FO that
year.

 
 
 

Reasonable Expectations for Rafa clay results in 2013

Post by Sakari Lun » Mon, 08 Apr 2013 04:46:08

On Sat, 6 Apr 2013 12:42:11 -0700 (PDT), Court_1

Quote:


>> On Sat, 6 Apr 2013 12:20:16 -0700 (PDT), Patrick Kehoe


>> >Rafa long lay off followed by titles on clay and then Masters1000 on hardcourt...

>> >Impressive results... Rafa early favourite for Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome and of course French Open...

>> >If we can TRY and be objective here, what do we think are his chances at:
>> >1) a sweep
>> >2) MC and Rome double with FO
>> >3) at least one in the run up and an 8th FO crown
>> >4) all efforts just to win 8th
>> >5) Rafa has injury or run of bad play and doesn't win any

>> >I assume #5 is ALMOST impossilbe UNLESS injury bug bites, but aside from that, surely no way he goes 0 for 4 on his beloved clay!

>> Reasonable expectations have to be very high now, when he is in good
>> enough form to win a HC Masters, and Djoker is not in top form.

>> But I won't predict in any more detail now.

>First of all, number 5 on your list is not an option. When is Nadal
>usually badly injured during clay season? He can turn his injuries on
>and off depending on what time of year it is don't you know!

Not my list. (Since you were replying to my post, and you know how to
reply to a post, unlike Uly).
 
 
 

Reasonable Expectations for Rafa clay results in 2013

Post by Court_ » Mon, 08 Apr 2013 04:55:43


Quote:
> On Sat, 6 Apr 2013 12:42:11 -0700 (PDT), Court_1



> >> On Sat, 6 Apr 2013 12:20:16 -0700 (PDT), Patrick Kehoe


> >> >Rafa long lay off followed by titles on clay and then Masters1000 on hardcourt...

> >> >Impressive results... Rafa early favourite for Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome and of course French Open...

> >> >If we can TRY and be objective here, what do we think are his chances at:
> >> >1) a sweep
> >> >2) MC and Rome double with FO
> >> >3) at least one in the run up and an 8th FO crown
> >> >4) all efforts just to win 8th
> >> >5) Rafa has injury or run of bad play and doesn't win any

> >> >I assume #5 is ALMOST impossilbe UNLESS injury bug bites, but aside from that, surely no way he goes 0 for 4 on his beloved clay!

> >> Reasonable expectations have to be very high now, when he is in good
> >> enough form to win a HC Masters, and Djoker is not in top form.

> >> But I won't predict in any more detail now.

> >First of all, number 5 on your list is not an option. When is Nadal
> >usually badly injured during clay season? He can turn his injuries on
> >and off depending on what time of year it is don't you know!

> Not my list. (Since you were replying to my post, and you know how to
> reply to a post, unlike Uly).

Oops, yes sorry, I meant to reply to Patrick! :)
 
 
 

Reasonable Expectations for Rafa clay results in 2013

Post by ca1hou » Mon, 08 Apr 2013 15:13:29

Quote:

> Rafa long lay off followed by titles on clay and then Masters1000 on hardcourt...

> Impressive results... Rafa early favourite for Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome and of course French Open...

> If we can TRY and be objective here, what do we think are his chances at:

> 1) a sweep

> 2) MC and Rome double with FO

> 3) at least one in the run up and an 8th FO crown

> 4) all efforts just to win 8th

> 5) Rafa has injury or run of bad play and doesn't win any

> I assume #5 is ALMOST impossilbe UNLESS injury bug bites, but aside from that, surely no way he goes 0 for 4 on his beloved clay!

> P

Raja going to do all the above, there no more clay-courter in tennis
 
 
 

Reasonable Expectations for Rafa clay results in 2013

Post by Dave Hazelwoo » Mon, 08 Apr 2013 16:27:11

On Sat, 6 Apr 2013 23:13:29 -0700 (PDT), ca1houn

Quote:


>> Rafa long lay off followed by titles on clay and then Masters1000 on hardcourt...

>> Impressive results... Rafa early favourite for Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome and of course French Open...

>> If we can TRY and be objective here, what do we think are his chances at:

>> 1) a sweep

>> 2) MC and Rome double with FO

>> 3) at least one in the run up and an 8th FO crown

>> 4) all efforts just to win 8th

>> 5) Rafa has injury or run of bad play and doesn't win any

>> I assume #5 is ALMOST impossilbe UNLESS injury bug bites, but aside from that, surely no way he goes 0 for 4 on his beloved clay!

>> P

>Raja going to do all the above, there no more clay-courter in tennis

Raja ?????

ah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

 
 
 

Reasonable Expectations for Rafa clay results in 2013

Post by TT » Mon, 08 Apr 2013 21:53:13

6.4.2013 22:20, Patrick Kehoe kirjoitti:

Quote:
> Rafa long lay off followed by titles on clay and then Masters1000 on hardcourt...

> Impressive results... Rafa early favourite for Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome and of course French Open...

> If we can TRY and be objective here, what do we think are his chances at:
> 1) a sweep
> 2) MC and Rome double with FO
> 3) at least one in the run up and an 8th FO crown
> 4) all efforts just to win 8th
> 5) Rafa has injury or run of bad play and doesn't win any

> I assume #5 is ALMOST impossilbe UNLESS injury bug bites, but aside from that, surely no way he goes 0 for 4 on his beloved clay!

Good post!

I've calculated previously odds for Rafa winning these four tournaments,
based on standard deviations & (log)normal distributions for points won
from Rafa's matches during 2005-2012. Results were:

MC      86,2 %
RG      83,3 %
Ro      67,5 %
Md      33,4 %

Those odds became slightly smaller than Rafa's actual tournament win
percentages.
Let's calculate the answers based on above, and assuming Rafa plays all 4...

1) Rafa wins all four?
A: 16,2 %

2) Rafa wins MC+Rome+RG?
A: 48,5 %
...This would be good... I think he should skip Madrid anyway...

3) RG and at least one M1000?
A: 80,8 %

4) Focusing solely on RG?
A: I don't know, higher than 83%.

5) None of the four?
A: I ran a simulation with previously mentioned odds, and the odds for
Rafa winning 0-4 titles are:

Titles  Odds    2007-12
0        0,5 %   -
1        6,9 %   -
2       30,5 %   2/6
3       45,9 %   3/6
4       16,1 %   1/6

Column "2007-12" is what actually happened when Rafa played all four
during last 6 years. So adds up pretty well.

So there you have it. :)

And I think Rafa should actually skip either Barcelona or Madrid, if he
doesn't he will play two b2b tournaments which is probably too much even
on clay.

 
 
 

Reasonable Expectations for Rafa clay results in 2013

Post by RaspingDriv » Tue, 09 Apr 2013 03:46:12


Quote:
> 6.4.2013 22:20, Patrick Kehoe kirjoitti:
> I've calculated previously odds for Rafa winning these four tournaments,
> based on standard deviations & (log)normal distributions for points won
> from Rafa's matches during 2005-2012. Results were:

> MC ? ? ?86,2 %
> RG ? ? ?83,3 %
> Ro ? ? ?67,5 %
> Md ? ? ?33,4 %

> Those odds became slightly smaller than Rafa's actual tournament win
> percentages.
> Let's calculate the answers based on above, and assuming Rafa plays all 4...

> 1) Rafa wins all four?
> A: 16,2 %

This number is almost surely a lower bound. Because it assumes
independence among the four events. The correct calculation should be
based on the formula
P(MC)*P(MD|MC)*P(RO|MC,MD)*P(RG|MC,MD,RO). In other words, for
example, look at instances where he won MC and then compute the
proportion of MD wins among those instances, assuming, of course, that
the tournaments are in the order MC,MD,RO,RG.
 
 
 

Reasonable Expectations for Rafa clay results in 2013

Post by RaspingDriv » Tue, 09 Apr 2013 03:47:59


Quote:

> > 6.4.2013 22:20, Patrick Kehoe kirjoitti:
> > I've calculated previously odds for Rafa winning these four tournaments,
> > based on standard deviations & (log)normal distributions for points won
> > from Rafa's matches during 2005-2012. Results were:

> > MC ? ? ?86,2 %
> > RG ? ? ?83,3 %
> > Ro ? ? ?67,5 %
> > Md ? ? ?33,4 %

> > Those odds became slightly smaller than Rafa's actual tournament win
> > percentages.
> > Let's calculate the answers based on above, and assuming Rafa plays all 4...

> > 1) Rafa wins all four?
> > A: 16,2 %

> This number is almost surely a lower bound. Because it assumes
> independence among the four events. The correct calculation should be
> based on the formula
> P(MC)*P(MD|MC)*P(RO|MC,MD)*P(RG|MC,MD,RO). In other words, for
> example, look at instances where he won MC and then compute the
> proportion of MD wins among those instances, assuming, of course, that
> the tournaments are in the order MC,MD,RO,RG.

I am not sure if the 16.2% is lower bound though.
 
 
 

Reasonable Expectations for Rafa clay results in 2013

Post by ca1hou » Tue, 09 Apr 2013 06:32:10

Quote:

> On Sat, 6 Apr 2013 23:13:29 -0700 (PDT), ca1houn



> >> Rafa long lay off followed by titles on clay and then Masters1000 on hardcourt...

> >> Impressive results... Rafa early favourite for Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome and of course French Open...

> >> If we can TRY and be objective here, what do we think are his chances at:

> >> 1) a sweep

> >> 2) MC and Rome double with FO

> >> 3) at least one in the run up and an 8th FO crown

> >> 4) all efforts just to win 8th

> >> 5) Rafa has injury or run of bad play and doesn't win any

> >> I assume #5 is ALMOST impossilbe UNLESS injury bug bites, but aside from that, surely no way he goes 0 for 4 on his beloved clay!

> >> P

> >Raja going to do all the above, there no more clay-courter in tennis

> Raja ?????

> ah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Lol Raja, Rafa both of them suck and suffer from some form of OCD
 
 
 

Reasonable Expectations for Rafa clay results in 2013

Post by TT » Tue, 09 Apr 2013 07:13:52

7.4.2013 21:46, RaspingDrive kirjoitti:

Quote:

>> 6.4.2013 22:20, Patrick Kehoe kirjoitti:

>> I've calculated previously odds for Rafa winning these four tournaments,
>> based on standard deviations & (log)normal distributions for points won
>> from Rafa's matches during 2005-2012. Results were:

>> MC      86,2 %
>> RG      83,3 %
>> Ro      67,5 %
>> Md      33,4 %

>> Those odds became slightly smaller than Rafa's actual tournament win
>> percentages.
>> Let's calculate the answers based on above, and assuming Rafa plays all 4...

>> 1) Rafa wins all four?
>> A: 16,2 %

> This number is almost surely a lower bound.

That would be my initial feel as well. However Rafa actually has played
all 4 events 6 times during his career and won them all once... that
makes 16,7%...

Quote:
> Because it assumes
> independence among the four events. The correct calculation should be
> based on the formula
> P(MC)*P(MD|MC)*P(RO|MC,MD)*P(RG|MC,MD,RO).

Fair point... His odds to win them all improve if he's in great form.

Quote:
> In other words, for
> example, look at instances where he won MC and then compute the
> proportion of MD wins among those instances

Well that wouldn't help much since he's won MC every year since 2005... :)