6.4.2013 22:20, Patrick Kehoe kirjoitti:
> Rafa long lay off followed by titles on clay and then Masters1000 on hardcourt...
> Impressive results... Rafa early favourite for Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome and of course French Open...
> If we can TRY and be objective here, what do we think are his chances at:
> 1) a sweep
> 2) MC and Rome double with FO
> 3) at least one in the run up and an 8th FO crown
> 4) all efforts just to win 8th
> 5) Rafa has injury or run of bad play and doesn't win any
> I assume #5 is ALMOST impossilbe UNLESS injury bug bites, but aside from that, surely no way he goes 0 for 4 on his beloved clay!
I've calculated previously odds for Rafa winning these four tournaments,
based on standard deviations & (log)normal distributions for points won
from Rafa's matches during 2005-2012. Results were:
MC 86,2 %
RG 83,3 %
Ro 67,5 %
Md 33,4 %
Those odds became slightly smaller than Rafa's actual tournament win
Let's calculate the answers based on above, and assuming Rafa plays all 4...
1) Rafa wins all four?
A: 16,2 %
2) Rafa wins MC+Rome+RG?
A: 48,5 %
...This would be good... I think he should skip Madrid anyway...
3) RG and at least one M1000?
A: 80,8 %
4) Focusing solely on RG?
A: I don't know, higher than 83%.
5) None of the four?
A: I ran a simulation with previously mentioned odds, and the odds for
Rafa winning 0-4 titles are:
Titles Odds 2007-12
0 0,5 % -
1 6,9 % -
2 30,5 % 2/6
3 45,9 % 3/6
4 16,1 % 1/6
Column "2007-12" is what actually happened when Rafa played all four
during last 6 years. So adds up pretty well.
So there you have it. :)
And I think Rafa should actually skip either Barcelona or Madrid, if he
doesn't he will play two b2b tournaments which is probably too much even