First set much as last year. Nadal will be nervous. Federer will be
agressive. Federer will be hitting his backhand well. One service
break will do it for Feds. 6-3 Federer.
Second set Nadal makes adjustments, runs everything down and starts to
break down the Federer backhand for more UEs on that side.
Third set is all Nadal. Federer looking rattled, missing a lot now
on the backhand and service percentage drops
Fourth set Nadal tightens up a little and gets broken but breaks back
twice. Federer retreats a little to try to stay in the match but he
can't stay with Nadal from the baseline and he's still hitting too
many UEs on the backhand.
This will be the typical pattern of a best of 5 on clay between
Federer and Nadal.