Sport Today

Surely I am not alone on this.  You''ve been watching the wind all day at
work.  It's looking great.  You check your marine weather band.  It states
'winds west 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to 15 knots tonight and 10 knots
tomorrow morning'.

Hey,  this is still good!! 15 knots is still enough  wind to have a good
time, and it is going to stay 15 knots till tomorrow morning, right??.
I'll be sailing by 6:30pm and can go till sunset.  BUT GODDAMMIT, by the
time you get rigged the wind has dropped from 15 knots to 7 or 8 and it
maybe gusts on occassion to 12 but never gets close to the 15 knot
forecast.  Your so mad your  ready to destroy every piece of equipment you
have and leave the leftovers at the next swap meet.  WHY???? Because this
scenario seems to happen 8 out of every 10 times you try sailing when the
forecast is for 15 to 20 knots.

I am convinced the marine forecasters PURPOSELY AND NEGLIGENTLY overstate
the wind by almost double what they have estimated.  They do this as an
easy way to cover for any possible negligence  in their forecasting, since
they believe they could only be sued if they understated the wind and
someone relied on their forecast and drowned.

WELL WE WINDSURFERES HAVE RIGHTS TOO!!!.  We  have the right to rely on
the marine weather forecasts to determine if we will have enough wind to
be planing.  The marine weather forecasters know (or ought to know) that
we will be relying on their forecast and they have a responsibility to
report their forecast with our needs in mind.

Most of us require a minimum of 12 knots of wind.  If the marine
forecasters are predicting 15 knots or greater, then they ought to know
that we will be depending on their forecast and making plans to either
take time from work, take vacation time or changing our daily plan.

However, their intentional misrepresentation of the estimated wind is
causing us to incur lost hours from work, unfulfilled vacation leave and
foiled weekend plans.

WHEN THEY PURPOSELY MISLEAD US, WE LOSE IN MANY WAYS  AND PERHAPS ITS TIME
WE SUED!

Is anyone else on my side??

[snip]

I suggest that you use your experiences to calibrate the forecast
as reported.  I would also investigate some other sources of weather
information.

Andrew

  ~~~~Tauras Sulaitis~~~~            
     <<<Sty in my I>>>                  
http://www.slonet.org/~tsulaiti/

You have to hold it *real* close to your ear, then listen
extra-carefully.   Only then, can you hear the laughter in the
background.

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1. It's been tried. Big unforecast Atlantic coast storm, people dead, NWS
sued. NWS lost, but not just because the forecast was wrong. They lost
because some critical weather buoys were out of service, the NWS knew it,
and they did not allow for that uncertainty in either their forecasts or
the aired text of those forecasts. But the monetary award was negligible,
just a slap on the wrist to wake them up.

We find the wx radio wind forecasts around here (intermountain west) to be
accurate about half the time, over maybe a quarter of the time and under
maybe the other quarter. That's pretty good. But since we must drive 180
miles to get wet and the wind can vary all day by 30-40 knots from one
lake to another (the Rocky Mountains divide NM into distinct climate and
weather zones), we must pick a lake and hit the highway long before the
wind begins, and trust the forecasts WE MAKE based on 10-15 sources. But,
man, it's a bummer when we drive for three hours, listening to the wx
radio repesting over and over: "Weather Alert! High wind warning for the
SW valleys (or Eastern Plains) of NM. Winds of 45 gusting to 60 mph from
mid-morning until after dark, with sustained winds over 50 much of the
afternoon. Stay off all lakes, and prepared for hazardous driving, even
hazardous walking."

We're prepared, all right. We got our 3.2 RAFs and our seven-six Bonzers
and our helmets, and we left the small dogs at home (my lab pup got blown
over on one of those days). So we get to the lake, and what happens? Not
enough wind to ride a jet ski. Not enough wind to test fly our kite. Not
enough wind to breathe. Not a knot, all day. Right up until we give up and
drive away after supper, we don't see even a ripple. That's a pain. But
then the next time they forecast 15-25, and we get 40 knots all day.

I've also seen countless sailors, even on short, expensive trips to good
destinations, "save their energy", sitting out perfectly good 5.5 wind
because "it's gonna blow harder later". Yeah, right, and the Fourth of
July always blows.

Moral: Never use the forecast to decide whether to sail in existing wind.
Make the decision on what the wind's doing NOW and whatever else ya gotta
do right now, but not on the forecast. Your wedding in three hours is a
certainty, your meeting with the CEO at 4:PM is a certainty, that spinal
tap at noon is a certainty, and those whitecaps are real, but the forecast
is statistics biased by concerns for liability on one side and PR on the
other (don't want to discourage all those tourists from hitting the beach
to spend money).

But GOOD LUCK suing anyone because we can't get it up.

Mike \m/

Never Leave Wind To Find Wind

My $.02:

From what I have observed, the NWS Marine Forecast gives maximum possible
conditions as a safety factor for the average boater.  Given this
assumption then it is a one good tool for attempting to predict
conditions; just remember that it is the maximum prediction not the
average.

There are plenty of other tools on the net for wx prediction.  I would
suggest the meteorology sites at FSU, Ohio State, and Purdue for a start.
Of course the wx channel and local forecasts are helpful, too.

Bob

What we really need is forecasts every three hours ON TIME.  Any decent
computer programmer could automate the process with the amount of real
time data the NWS has available to them, and some decent trend
algorithms.

Ah, don't get me stared on this.  I've probably spent close to ten grand
worth of plastic on my gear in the year since I started sailing, and
maybe twice that in lost work for forecasts that "didn't pan out", or
went from "gale warning" to "light & variable" somehow between 3:30AM &
11:30AM( a half hour late...) BTW, I AM self employed, and have enough
flexibility to "play the weather".  I'm fortunate to have sailed a lot
of awesome days, and I can honestly say that half of them were "gifts
from nature" that the ***y NWS had no clue were coming.  This past
Thurs & Fri are two examples.  Over thirty, and I distinctly remember
something about "wind speeds should remain below 20k throughout the
period..."  It sucks, but its all we've got...

P.S.  How about something a little more localized than 100 miles of
shoreline?  How much weather savy does it take to say that "somewhere"
along 100 miles of shoreline the wind will blow "10 to 15 knots".  I can
say definitley that somewhere between Watch Hill, RI and Sandy Hook, NJ,
two dogs, probably of differing gender, are doing the wild thing.  Does
that kind of clairvoyance qualify me for a job with the government?  You
bet.

                                                        -=Neil=-

Joeywind,

You're your worst enemy if you rely soley on NWS Marine forecasts. Not
to say that they don't do a good job.  When they make marine forecasts
they are often covering many miles of coastline.  By the laws of the
nature, wind speeds can vary greatly from one bay to the next.  It
depends on wind direction and on what type of weather pattern is
creating the wind (i.e. winds following a cold front are often stronger
inland than on the coast).

A few things you can do to improve your chances of a succesful afternoon
off from work:

1 - Follow the marine forecast everyday and compare to what happens at
your favorite sailing locale.  Then figure out the typical bias.  

2 - Follow your favorite TV weather guy.  Some of these guys are into
sailing and sometimes provide more accurate marine forecasts.

3 - Read up on meteorology and wind forecasting and do the forecasting
yourself.  There's more than enough realtime & computer model data on
the Internet to make forecasts.

BTW,  I have a MET degree and I've been burned a few time as well.  It's
just what happens when you don't live at places with names like "The
Gorge" Ho'okipa..etc...

I think the thing to do is to take up sea kayaking and bring it with
just in case.

Pete Cote
BIC Vivace 290
Mistral Stinger 265
DISCLAIMER<These comments represent my own opinions and not of my
employer's>

weather forecasts are FORECASTS.  they are
not a guarantee.  furthermore, there are
little microclimates that exist within the
larger areas that make up a forecast area.  
for instance, when rain is *forecast* for the
san francisco bay area, i know that belmont
and redwood city are much more likely to
get rain than sunnyvale or santa clara.
i also know that san carlos has a tendency
to be windier than palo alto, too.  this is
experience from a decade of living in the
area and observing weather trends.

1.  a forecast is a forecast.  it is not a
guarantee.  the weather does not work at the
whim of mankind.
2.  a single forecast for an area from a radio,
or a phone call to oakland flight service, does
not suffice.  back up that single point of info
with local info...local airports, or on-site
wind reports.
3.  prior knowledge of the microclimate i'll
be visiting is at last as important as a forecast.
for instance, around here the wind typically
drops shortly after dusk.  it increases in the
afternoons, with very mild winds before noon.
4.  forecasts are sometimes made without current
information, or based on information in a different
area.  most pilots have had the experience of
being told "IFR conditions" on the phone while
looking out the window at severe clear.

ultimately it is your responsibility to double
check information by whatever means, up to and
including spending time at the site in question
to determine for yourself the local weather trends.

--
                        stormwind

                        hell's amazon
                        lord of the frozen realm

         ~~~~Tauras Sulaitis~~~~            
Daily Surf and Beach Report for Estero Bay California                  
http://www.slonet.org/~tsulaiti/SurfReport.html

Who is it exactly you're going to sue?  Are the forecasters gonna pay???
Nope, it will be you and me $$$$$

%$!*^#&#! ( the sound of my foot in my mouth)

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