I have been really getting into the "Daniels Running
Formula", and I know a lot of you have read it, and it is
highly regarded. I agree that it is good, but have one
question regarding the VDOT values.
Upon estimating my VDOT on his chart, I immediately
zeroed in on the 5k times, which I know best for myself.
My PR is 19:14, so that made my VDOT 52 (a 17:17 5k,
the closest match). I then looked at all the corresponding
distances to see how accurate it was - and lo and behold,
it's almost dead-on for predicting my 10k time, 1 mile
time (I'm a *little* faster), and all the rest..... up to
marathon. You see, I've never ran one, but I have intense
interest in what my *expected* pace should be, as I AM
running one in 5 weeks.
The Daniels VDOT values peg me to run a 3:04 (or thereabouts)
marathon. That is HALF AN HOUR longer that my own
predictions, based on my long runs. I often do a 30k as the
long one, and have tried this distance at different paces. My
experience is as follows:
30km in 2:30: This is my "easy" pace.. straight 5:00 km's (or
8:00 miles). I am sure I could run the marathon
at this pace and finish in 3:30. It wouldn't be
but it wouldn't be a disaster, either. When I run
at this pace, I start getting a bit sore after
24-28km, but cardio is totally fine.
30km in 2:23: Although this represents only a 15 seconds per
km increase in speed, I am not sure if I could
that up for the full 42km of a marathon. I find I
fine for the first 15km-20km, then fatigue makes
the pace start the slowing process. Going at this
equals a 3:20 marathon, still WAYYY off my VDOT.
I HAVE done this time, however - I was really
it at the end. Facing 12 more km's would have
me at that pace.
30 km in 2:13: I've never done it. I think the fastest I have ran a
fairly significant distance is about 14km in an
8.7 miles) I KNOW I cannot run much faster yet,
I have yet to break 40:00 for 10km. Yet this time
(2:13/30km) is the speed I should be able to
for the full marathon.
Daniels predicts I can run a marathon running 4:17 minute km's.
Since his predictions of all my other times are eerily accurate, I
wonder if I am short-changing myself, somehow... I *know* it's a
prediction - not fact.... but it seems odd that he's almost half an
David (in Ontario)
"Nunc scio quit sit amor."