Sport Today

ARL ROUND ONE ANALYSIS - odds from centrebet

System being refined currently. :)

           odds  pts  line
PARRAMATTA 10/10  0   +2.5  10-08
NORTHS     10/14 -5.5 -2.5

Here we have Parramatta as a 2 point favorite.  A probability of winning
of 53.5%, so their approximate true odds should be somewhere around 10/11
- 5/6.  Here, it looks like we have a false favorite, and they actually
have a 58.1% chance to lose by 2.5 or less or win.  Laying 5/6 here this
gives you a 3.6% edge on winning this one.  Against the points you then
have a probability of winning of 53.6%, or a 3.6% edge at even money
again, there.  Straight up to win you also have a 53.6% change, or a 3.6%
edge.

Results : C: 0.00  A: 2.83

WESTS        1/6 -13.5 -10.5
GOLD COAST 35/10 + 7.5 +10.5  24-16

Here we have Wests as a 10 point favorite, so forget the points/line
completely.  A probability of Wests winning of about 67.8%.  So the real
true odds should be around 1/2.  Likewise Gold Coast should be 2/1, but
you have them at 7/2, about an 11.1% edge there.

Result - C: +3.50  A: +3.50

BALMAIN      4/1 + 8.5 +11.5
MANLY        1/7 -14.5 -11.5

Here we have Manly as a 17 point favorite.  With a 78.1% chance of wining
their odds should be in between 2/7 or 1/4.  4/1 on Balmain gives you a
1.9% edge.  Manly should have about a 59.9% chance to cover the line, and
about a 54.5% chance to cover the points.  This gives you an edge of 4.5%
either way, due to the bookies take.

Results - C: pass  A: -2.00

ILLAWARRA    1/5 -12.5 - 9.5
SOUTHS       3/1 + 6.5 + 9.5

Here we have Illawarra as a 19 point favorite.  With an 80.6% chance to
win, they should be at 1/4.  Likewise Souths isn't good value.  However,
Illawarra should have a 66.7% chance to cover the 9.5, for a 12.2% edge,
or quite nice.  They should have a 61.6% chance to cover the points or
about a 7.1% edge.

Results - C: 1.83  A: 1.83

NEWCASTLE    1/2  -8.5 - 5.5
ST. GEORGE   7/5  +2.5 + 5.5

Here we have Newcastle as a 3 point favorite, about 55.5% chance to win.
Odds of about 4/5, so St. George gives you an edge of about 2.8% straight
up.  The line and points can be ignored.

Result - C: pass  A: pass

SYDNEY CITY  1/12 -20.5 -17.5
SOUTH QLD    6/1  +14.5 +17.5

Sydney City, as a 27 point favorite should have about an 89% chance to
win.  Close enough to 1/9, so forget that.  However, we have a 9.5 point
edge versus the line and 6.5 versus the points, of a 66.7% chance to cover
and a 61.6% chance to cover.  Edges of 12.2% and 11.6% respectively.

Results - C: 1.83  A: 1.83

TOTALS    C: 7.16  A: 7.99

"How can you miss, they're all full tosses."
Stan McCabe, on his baseball batting prowess while on tour of South
Africa.

"How can you miss, they're all full tosses."
Stan McCabe, on his baseball batting prowess while on tour of South
Africa.

The centrebet odds  give you three ways to pick.  Straight up to win, i.e.
the odds of 1/1 or 5/7 to pick a team to win.  I am presuming that is
straightforward enough.  At 5/7 a team should have a 7/12 or 58.3% chance
to win for this to be the true odds.  At 1/1, a 50% chance obviously.  So,
with the wrong team as the underdog, here my ratings giving them to be a 2
point favorite instead of how they were rated (and this is where
probability/statistics and system comes in) there is a 3.6% edge, enough
for an agressive (A) picker to pick them, but no for conservative(C), the
two categories under results.

Parramatta +2.5 means Centrebet has them as a 2.5 point undering, a -2.5
means a favorite.  However, against the line you have to pick at a 6/5
disadvantage, i.e. if you put one virtual unit on there you get 5/6 of one
back on top of the one you put on to start with.  Against the points is
different, you are at even money, 1 gets 1, but they jack the spread in
their favor more, and have a margin where no-one can win if that comes in.

10-08 is the final score.

C: 0.00 should be actually C: pass, as they wouldn't pick.
A: 2.83 means a 2.83 virtual unit profit for the (A)ggressive picker,
given all picks are one unit.

BTW, Saints didn't have miss Goldethorpe did they :-(

BTW, Saints didn't half miss Goldethorpe did they :-(

I only bet on the Cup and even then I always pick the grey ones ;-)