ARL ROUND ONE ANALYSIS - odds from centrebet

System being refined currently. :)

odds pts line

PARRAMATTA 10/10 0 +2.5 10-08

NORTHS 10/14 -5.5 -2.5

Here we have Parramatta as a 2 point favorite. A probability of winning

of 53.5%, so their approximate true odds should be somewhere around 10/11

- 5/6. Here, it looks like we have a false favorite, and they actually

have a 58.1% chance to lose by 2.5 or less or win. Laying 5/6 here this

gives you a 3.6% edge on winning this one. Against the points you then

have a probability of winning of 53.6%, or a 3.6% edge at even money

again, there. Straight up to win you also have a 53.6% change, or a 3.6%

edge.

Results : C: 0.00 A: 2.83

WESTS 1/6 -13.5 -10.5

GOLD COAST 35/10 + 7.5 +10.5 24-16

Here we have Wests as a 10 point favorite, so forget the points/line

completely. A probability of Wests winning of about 67.8%. So the real

true odds should be around 1/2. Likewise Gold Coast should be 2/1, but

you have them at 7/2, about an 11.1% edge there.

Result - C: +3.50 A: +3.50

BALMAIN 4/1 + 8.5 +11.5

MANLY 1/7 -14.5 -11.5

Here we have Manly as a 17 point favorite. With a 78.1% chance of wining

their odds should be in between 2/7 or 1/4. 4/1 on Balmain gives you a

1.9% edge. Manly should have about a 59.9% chance to cover the line, and

about a 54.5% chance to cover the points. This gives you an edge of 4.5%

either way, due to the bookies take.

Results - C: pass A: -2.00

ILLAWARRA 1/5 -12.5 - 9.5

SOUTHS 3/1 + 6.5 + 9.5

Here we have Illawarra as a 19 point favorite. With an 80.6% chance to

win, they should be at 1/4. Likewise Souths isn't good value. However,

Illawarra should have a 66.7% chance to cover the 9.5, for a 12.2% edge,

or quite nice. They should have a 61.6% chance to cover the points or

about a 7.1% edge.

Results - C: 1.83 A: 1.83

NEWCASTLE 1/2 -8.5 - 5.5

ST. GEORGE 7/5 +2.5 + 5.5

Here we have Newcastle as a 3 point favorite, about 55.5% chance to win.

Odds of about 4/5, so St. George gives you an edge of about 2.8% straight

up. The line and points can be ignored.

Result - C: pass A: pass

SYDNEY CITY 1/12 -20.5 -17.5

SOUTH QLD 6/1 +14.5 +17.5

Sydney City, as a 27 point favorite should have about an 89% chance to

win. Close enough to 1/9, so forget that. However, we have a 9.5 point

edge versus the line and 6.5 versus the points, of a 66.7% chance to cover

and a 61.6% chance to cover. Edges of 12.2% and 11.6% respectively.

Results - C: 1.83 A: 1.83

TOTALS C: 7.16 A: 7.99

"How can you miss, they're all full tosses."

Stan McCabe, on his baseball batting prowess while on tour of South

Africa.