## ARL Round One Analysis Results

### ARL Round One Analysis Results

ARL ROUND ONE ANALYSIS - odds from centrebet

System being refined currently. :)

odds  pts  line
PARRAMATTA 10/10  0   +2.5  10-08
NORTHS     10/14 -5.5 -2.5

Here we have Parramatta as a 2 point favorite.  A probability of winning
of 53.5%, so their approximate true odds should be somewhere around 10/11
- 5/6.  Here, it looks like we have a false favorite, and they actually
have a 58.1% chance to lose by 2.5 or less or win.  Laying 5/6 here this
gives you a 3.6% edge on winning this one.  Against the points you then
have a probability of winning of 53.6%, or a 3.6% edge at even money
again, there.  Straight up to win you also have a 53.6% change, or a 3.6%
edge.

Results : C: 0.00  A: 2.83

WESTS        1/6 -13.5 -10.5
GOLD COAST 35/10 + 7.5 +10.5  24-16

Here we have Wests as a 10 point favorite, so forget the points/line
completely.  A probability of Wests winning of about 67.8%.  So the real
true odds should be around 1/2.  Likewise Gold Coast should be 2/1, but
you have them at 7/2, about an 11.1% edge there.

Result - C: +3.50  A: +3.50

BALMAIN      4/1 + 8.5 +11.5
MANLY        1/7 -14.5 -11.5

Here we have Manly as a 17 point favorite.  With a 78.1% chance of wining
their odds should be in between 2/7 or 1/4.  4/1 on Balmain gives you a
1.9% edge.  Manly should have about a 59.9% chance to cover the line, and
about a 54.5% chance to cover the points.  This gives you an edge of 4.5%
either way, due to the bookies take.

Results - C: pass  A: -2.00

ILLAWARRA    1/5 -12.5 - 9.5
SOUTHS       3/1 + 6.5 + 9.5

Here we have Illawarra as a 19 point favorite.  With an 80.6% chance to
win, they should be at 1/4.  Likewise Souths isn't good value.  However,
Illawarra should have a 66.7% chance to cover the 9.5, for a 12.2% edge,
or quite nice.  They should have a 61.6% chance to cover the points or

Results - C: 1.83  A: 1.83

NEWCASTLE    1/2  -8.5 - 5.5
ST. GEORGE   7/5  +2.5 + 5.5

Here we have Newcastle as a 3 point favorite, about 55.5% chance to win.
Odds of about 4/5, so St. George gives you an edge of about 2.8% straight
up.  The line and points can be ignored.

Result - C: pass  A: pass

SYDNEY CITY  1/12 -20.5 -17.5
SOUTH QLD    6/1  +14.5 +17.5

Sydney City, as a 27 point favorite should have about an 89% chance to
win.  Close enough to 1/9, so forget that.  However, we have a 9.5 point
edge versus the line and 6.5 versus the points, of a 66.7% chance to cover
and a 61.6% chance to cover.  Edges of 12.2% and 11.6% respectively.

Results - C: 1.83  A: 1.83

TOTALS    C: 7.16  A: 7.99

"How can you miss, they're all full tosses."
Stan McCabe, on his baseball batting prowess while on tour of South
Africa.

### ARL Round One Analysis Results

"How can you miss, they're all full tosses."
Stan McCabe, on his baseball batting prowess while on tour of South
Africa.

Quote:

> >            odds  pts  line
> > PARRAMATTA 10/10  0   +2.5  10-08
> > NORTHS     10/14 -5.5 -2.5

> > Here we have Parramatta as a 2 point favorite.  A probability of winning
> > of 53.5%, so their approximate true odds should be somewhere around 10/11
> > - 5/6.  Here, it looks like we have a false favorite, and they actually
> > have a 58.1% chance to lose by 2.5 or less or win.  Laying 5/6 here this
> > gives you a 3.6% edge on winning this one.  Against the points you then
> > have a probability of winning of 53.6%, or a 3.6% edge at even money
> > again, there.  Straight up to win you also have a 53.6% change, or a 3.6%
> > edge.
> > Results : C: 0.00  A: 2.83

> Sorry if this question shows my stupidity, but could we have a plain
> english explantion as to what the hell this is all about. I have a hard
> enough time working footy-tab out :-(, this stuff just baffles me
> completely...

Well, I wouldn't bet then. :)

The centrebet odds  give you three ways to pick.  Straight up to win, i.e.
the odds of 1/1 or 5/7 to pick a team to win.  I am presuming that is
straightforward enough.  At 5/7 a team should have a 7/12 or 58.3% chance
to win for this to be the true odds.  At 1/1, a 50% chance obviously.  So,
with the wrong team as the underdog, here my ratings giving them to be a 2
point favorite instead of how they were rated (and this is where
probability/statistics and system comes in) there is a 3.6% edge, enough
for an agressive (A) picker to pick them, but no for conservative(C), the
two categories under results.

Parramatta +2.5 means Centrebet has them as a 2.5 point undering, a -2.5
means a favorite.  However, against the line you have to pick at a 6/5
disadvantage, i.e. if you put one virtual unit on there you get 5/6 of one
back on top of the one you put on to start with.  Against the points is
different, you are at even money, 1 gets 1, but they jack the spread in
their favor more, and have a margin where no-one can win if that comes in.

10-08 is the final score.

C: 0.00 should be actually C: pass, as they wouldn't pick.
A: 2.83 means a 2.83 virtual unit profit for the (A)ggressive picker,
given all picks are one unit.

### ARL Round One Analysis Results

Quote:

> ARL ROUND ONE ANALYSIS - odds from centrebet

> System being refined currently. :)

>            odds  pts  line
> PARRAMATTA 10/10  0   +2.5  10-08
> NORTHS     10/14 -5.5 -2.5

> Here we have Parramatta as a 2 point favorite.  A probability of winning
> of 53.5%, so their approximate true odds should be somewhere around 10/11
> - 5/6.  Here, it looks like we have a false favorite, and they actually
> have a 58.1% chance to lose by 2.5 or less or win.  Laying 5/6 here this
> gives you a 3.6% edge on winning this one.  Against the points you then
> have a probability of winning of 53.6%, or a 3.6% edge at even money
> again, there.  Straight up to win you also have a 53.6% change, or a 3.6%
> edge.

> Results : C: 0.00  A: 2.83

Sorry if this question shows my stupidity, but could we have a plain
english explantion as to what the hell this is all about. I have a hard
enough time working footy-tab out :-(, this stuff just baffles me
completely...

BTW, Saints didn't have miss Goldethorpe did they :-(

### ARL Round One Analysis Results

Quote:

> ARL ROUND ONE ANALYSIS - odds from centrebet

> System being refined currently. :)

>            odds  pts  line
> PARRAMATTA 10/10  0   +2.5  10-08
> NORTHS     10/14 -5.5 -2.5

> Here we have Parramatta as a 2 point favorite.  A probability of winning
> of 53.5%, so their approximate true odds should be somewhere around 10/11
> - 5/6.  Here, it looks like we have a false favorite, and they actually
> have a 58.1% chance to lose by 2.5 or less or win.  Laying 5/6 here this
> gives you a 3.6% edge on winning this one.  Against the points you then
> have a probability of winning of 53.6%, or a 3.6% edge at even money
> again, there.  Straight up to win you also have a 53.6% change, or a 3.6%
> edge.

> Results : C: 0.00  A: 2.83

Sorry if this question shows my stupidity, but could we have a plain
english explantion as to what the hell this is all about. I have a hard
enough time working footy-tab out :-(, this stuff just baffles me
completely...

BTW, Saints didn't half miss Goldethorpe did they :-(

### ARL Round One Analysis Results

Quote:

> > Sorry if this question shows my stupidity, but could we have a plain
> > english explantion as to what the hell this is all about. I have a hard
> > enough time working footy-tab out :-(, this stuff just baffles me
> > completely...

> Well, I wouldn't bet then. :)