Sport Today

ARL ROUND ONE ANALYSIS - odds from centrebet

System being refined currently. Don't be rash! :)

           odds  pts  line
PARRAMATTA 10/10  0   +2.5
NORTHS     10/14 -5.5 -2.5

Here we have Parramatta as a 2 point favorite.  A probability of winning
of 53.5%, so their approximate true odds should be somewhere around 10/11
- 5/6.  Here, it looks like we have a false favorite, and they actually
have a 58.1% chance to lose by 2.5 or less or win.  Laying 5/6 here this
gives you a 3.6% edge on winning this one.  Against the points you then
have a probability of winning of 53.6%, or a 3.6% edge at even money
again, there.  Straight up to win you also have a 53.6% change, or a 3.6%
edge.

WESTS        1/6 -13.5 -10.5
GOLD COAST 35/10 + 7.5 +10.5

Here we have Wests as a 10 point favorite, so forget the points/line
completely.  A probability of Wests winning of about 67.8%.  So the real
true odds should be around 1/2.  Likewise Gold Coast should be 2/1, but
you have them at 7/2, about an 11.1% edge there.

BALMAIN      4/1 + 8.5 +11.5
MANLY        1/7 -14.5 -11.5

Here we have Manly as a 17 point favorite.  With a 78.1% chance of wining
their odds should be in between 2/7 or 1/4.  4/1 on Balmain gives you a
1.9% edge.  Manly should have about a 59.9% chance to cover the line, and
about a 54.5% chance to cover the points.  This gives you an edge of 4.5%
either way, due to the bookies take.

ILLAWARRA    1/5 -12.5 - 9.5
SOUTHS       3/1 + 6.5 + 9.5

Here we have Illawarra as a 19 point favorite.  With an 80.6% chance to
win, they should be at 1/4.  Likewise Souths isn't good value.  However,
Illawarra should have a 66.7% chance to cover the 9.5, for a 12.2% edge,
or quite nice.  They should have a 61.6% chance to cover the points or
about a 7.1% edge.

NEWCASTLE    1/2  -8.5 - 5.5
ST. GEORGE   7/5  +2.5 + 5.5

Here we have Newcastle as a 3 point favorite, about 55.5% chance to win.
Odds of about 4/5, so St. George gives you an edge of about 2.8% straight
up.  The line and points can be ignored.

SYDNEY CITY  1/12 -20.5 -17.5
SOUTH QLD    6/1  +14.5 +17.5

Sydney City, as a 27 point favorite should have about an 89% chance to
win.  Close enough to 1/9, so forget that.  However, we have a 9.5 point
edge versus the line and 6.5 versus the points, of a 66.7% chance to cover
and a 61.6% chance to cover.  Edges of 12.2% and 11.6% respectively.

"How can you miss, they're all full tosses."
Stan McCabe, on his baseball batting prowess while on tour of South
Africa.

--

Cheers

Christian Kelly

"In defeat, malice; In victory, revenge!"

No, my ratings have them as a 2 point favorite, the centrebet line is they
are underdogs.  i.e, Here _we_ have, meaning me in the royal possessive.
:)

Not very interesting, otherwise - you will see the same thing in the other
games!  i.e. the ratings system I worked out rating them differently.

"How can you miss, they're all full tosses."
Stan McCabe, on his baseball batting prowess while on tour of South
Africa.