by Copyright Richard Scott 1995 - (hey, if the AFL can copyright their draw :))
ADJUSTMENTS
W D L F A DIF FG AG PR OPR DPR VAR PR OPR DPR
MANLY 20 - 2 687 248 439 31 11 121 72 49 0-4 0 0 0
CANBERRA 20 - 2 634 255 379 29 12 118 70 48 5-9 1 1 0
BRISBANE 17 - 5 600 364 236 27 17 112 68 44 10-14 2 1 1
CRONULLA 16 - 6 516 287 228 23 13 111 63 48 15-19 3 2 1
NEWCASTLE 15 - 7 549 396 153 25 18 108 65 43 20+ 4 2 2
SYD BULLDOGS 14 - 8 468 352 116 21 16 106 61 45
ST GEORGE 13 - 9 583 382 201 27 17 110 66 44 Week 8+ Max 3
NTH SYD 11 2 9 542 331 211 25 15 111 65 46 Week 12+ Max 2
Syd City 12 - 10 466 406 60 21 18 104 61 43
Auckland 13 - 9 544 493 51 25 22 103 64 39
Western Reds 11 - 11 361 549 -188 16 25 092 56 36
Illawarra 10 1 11 519 431 88 24 20 105 64 41
Wests 10 - 12 459 534 - 75 21 24 098 61 37
Penrith 9 - 13 481 484 - 3 22 22 101 61 40
Syd Tigers 7 - 15 309 591 -282 14 27 088 54 34
Sth Qld 6 1 15 303 502 -199 14 23 092 54 38
Gold Coast 4 1 17 350 628 -278 16 29 088 56 32
Sth Syd 4 1 17 319 686 -367 15 31 084 54 30
Parramatta 3 - 19 310 690 -380 14 31 084 54 30
Nth Qld 2 - 20 269 660 -391 12 30 083 52 31
9269 463 463 0 21 21 101 61 40
Power Ratings
_____________
Are the difference in oints between teams. i.e. at the end of 1995
Illawarra with a rating of 105 was 7 points better than Wests with a rating
of 98.
Quick and *** Predicted Scores
_____________
Not going to be particularly accurate with regards to actual scores, but it
is the differences we are interested in, as they are based on average type
numbers, i.e. a NSWRL team on average over the season scored 21 points and
allowed 21 points if you take the totals and construct an average team
(which would have a theoretical power rating of 101-61-40. To predict a
score take the Offensive Power Rating for one team, and subtract the
Defensive Power Rating of the other team. In the above example Illawarra's 64
Offensive Power Rating - Wests 37 Defensive Power rating predicts a score
of 27 points for them. Do the same with the other team. Of course, none of
this takes into account any other factors like weather, home ground, etc.
Updating Power Ratings
______________________
To update the power ratings, you need to find the variance. The variance
is the difference between the predicted difference in scores (which was 7
in our example) and the actual score, which for that game was 8-17 for a
difference of -9. So the variance is the difference between the two, in
this case, 16. So, you look on the adjustments table and for a
variance of 16 you adjust the Power Rating by 3, the Offensive Power
Rating by 2, and the Defensive Power Rating by 1. The team that performed
better than expected (Wests) has their ratings raised, and the team tha
performed worse than expected has theirs lowered. From week 8 onwards,
only adjust by a maximum of 3 (i.e. treat 20+ wins as 15+) and from week
12 onwards only adjust by a maximum of 2 (i.e. treat 15+ wins as 10+)
Round 1, 22-24th Mar
Match PRDS ACTS PDIF ADIF Var New Power Ratings
Illawarra v Wests 27-20 08-17 7 - 9 16 102-62-40 101-63-38
Syd City v Syd Tigers 27-11 38-10 16 18 2 104-61-43 088-54-34
Gold Coast v Nth Syd 10-33 26-42 -23 -16 7 089-57-32 110-64-46
Manly v Sth Syd 42-05 44-06 37 38 1 121-72-49 084-54-30
St George v Western Reds 30-12 WR For 18 NA NA 110-66-44 092-56-36
Brisbane v Auckland 29-20 Br For 4 NA NA 112-68-44 103-64-39
Newcastle v Cronulla 17-20 CS For - 3 NA NA 108-65-43 111-63-48
Bulldogs v Nth Qld 30-07 CB/NQF 23 NA NA 106-61-45 083-52-31
Parramatta v Penrith 14-31 Pe For -17 NA NA 084-54-30 101-61-40
Canberra v Sth Qld 32-06 C For 26 NA NA 118-70-48 092-54-38
Round 2, 29-31st Mar
Match PRDS ACTS PDIF ADIF Var New Power Ratings
Sth Qld v Parramatta 24-16 24-20 8 4 4 118-70-48 084-54-30
Cronulla v St George 19-18 24-16 1 8 7 112-64-48 109-65-44
Nth Qld v Syd City 09-30 02-40 -21 -38 17 080-50-30 107-63-44
Western Reds v Newcastle 13-29 16-22 -16 - 6 10 094-57-37 106-64-42
Wests v Brisbane 19-30 14-36 -11 -22 11 099-62-37 114-69-45
Penrith v Canberra 13-30 16-16 -17 0 17 104-63-41 115-68-47
Syd Tigers v Bulldogs 9-27 20-16 -18 22 36 092-56-36 102-59-43
Manly v Gold Coast 40-08 36-22 32 14 18 118-70-48 092-59-33
Auckland v Illawarra 24-23 18-10 1 8 7 104-65-39 101-61-40
Sth Syd v Nth Syd 08-34 16-32 26 16 10 86-51-35 108-63-45
Round 3, 4-8th Apr
Match PRDS ACTS PDIF ADIF Var New Power Ratings
Wests v Auckland 23-28
Syd City v Bulldogs 20-15
Brisbane v Illawarra 29-16
Nth Qld v Syd Tigers 14-26
Nth Syd v Manly 15-25
Canberra v Parramatta 38-07
Western Reds v Cronulla 09-27
Sth Qld v Penrith 29-15
Sth Syd v Gold Coast 18-24
St George v Newcastle 23-20
-- An toir thu dhomh pinte eile, mas e do thoil e.
"Please explain to me the scientific nature of the Whammy?"
- Dana Scully