by SUPER LEAGUE ROUND TWO ANALYSIS
Round one jumped me, looking at the ratings they picked five winners, but
I don't have the odds. If someone does, they could send them to me and I
could check how it does, thanks.
NORTH QLD 1/5 -12.5 - 9.5
W. REDS 3/1 + 6.5 + 9.5
We have another false favorite here, Qld should be a 5 point underdog.
So, a straight up win is nice, with a probability of Perth winning of 59%
we get around a 35% edge by taking them. Also, the chances of them
covering as the underdog are over 70% in both cases, an edge of 20% in
each case.
AUCKLAND 1/5 -12.5 - 9.5
HUNTER 3/1 + 6.5 + 9.5
As a 19 point favorite, Auckland should win 80.6%. Or about 1/4. Hence
we take the 61.6 and 66.7 percentage chances versus points/line for edges
of 11.6% and 12.5% respectively.
CANBERRA 1/8 -18.5 -15.5
PENRITH 9/2 +12.5 +15.5
Canberra we have rated as only a 14 point favorite, so ignore the points
and line. At a 73.8% chance to win that is approximately 4/11. Hence,
there is value in Penrith at 9/2, about 10% worth.
BRISBANE 1/14 -23.5 -20.5
ADELAIDE 6/1 +17.5 +20.5
Brisbane we have as a 35 point favorite over Adelaide, for a chance of
winning of 94.4%. This would make them roughly a 1/17 favorite, but that
is only a 1% or so edge there, how sure are you they will win? :)
However, the line and points both give you 20% edges with the 70+% chances
to win.
CANTERBUR 16/10 + 2.5 + 5.5
CRONULLA 5/11 - 8.5 - 5.5
Interesting game, seeing we have Canterbury as a 1 point favorite, for a
51.8% chance to win. Therefore, you get a 13.4% edge having them at 8/5.
However, they are a 61.2% chance to cover the line, for an edge of 7%, not
bad. To cover the points 56.3% for an edge of only 6.3%.
"How can you miss, they're all full tosses."
Stan McCabe, on his baseball batting prowess while on tour of South
Africa.