POLL: Non-U.S fans (repost)

POLL: Non-U.S fans (repost)

Post by Ralph Sunl » Thu, 30 Sep 1993 04:07:26


This is a follow-up announcement of my poll regarding football
fans who live outside the U.S. The purpose of the poll is to find out the
level of support for each team. To be included in the poll, all you have
to do is send me your country of residence, and the team you follow. Simple
huh? Please remember this poll is for fans OUTSIDE THE U.S.A ONLY. The
poll will be running until Monday the 4th of October.

Please e-mail your replies direct to me, do not forward to this post.

MTIA

--
Ralph Sunley         | "The Path of Excess leads to
Commerce Department  |     the Tower of Wisdom"
Murdoch Uni Perth WA | - W. Blake : Enigma MCMXC a.d.

 
 
 

POLL: Non-U.S fans (repost)

Post by Gregory C Frankli » Wed, 29 Sep 1993 13:47:04

I will post the reports of NFL_1993, an MS-DOS application written
by Thomas Kerr.  Hope you find it interesting.

(P.S. I don't know where to get the program by ftp.  I think the
filename to search for is nfl93.zip....tell me if you find it.)

Here is a quote from the .doc file about the methodology and issues
behind the computer predictions.

[Begin quote]
    [T]he program is very simple.  It processes game scores and
    maintains a simple, two parameter database on each team.  The data
    can be used to predict the outcome of next week's games.  Based on
    statistics, the program should predict 70% of the games correctly
    between now and infinity.  Typically, over the last nine seasons,
    the predictions have been pretty consistent in picking 9 to 10 winners
    per week out of 14 games.   For three years, I tried some pretty
    sophisticated, numerical analysis techniques to improve the accuracy.
    I tracked team performance, in terms of offensive and defensive
    ratings, as a function of whether the teams were on the road or at
    home.  I tried Dow-Jones type time series analysis - moving averages
    and weighted moving averages based on the last two weeks, three weeks,
    four weeks ... nine weeks, etc.  By the time I was done, I had
    "successfully" lowered my prediction rate to low sixties.  The more
    complicated I made the model or the more parameters I added for
    model sophistication, the worse I did.  Finally, I gave up and went
    back to the two parameter model -- how does each team perform, offen-
    sively and defensively, relative to the average NFL team performance
    of 21 points scored per game.

    Over the course of a season, NFL teams average 21 points scored per
    game.  And typically, a team that puts 28 points on the board
    per week and limits the other guy to 14 points per week generally
    comes out ahead of the team that puts 14 points on the board while
    giving up 28 points.  In simple terms, that's the line taken by
    the predictions.

    When you stop and think about all the sophisticated statistics the
    commentators quote, they don't really do any better.  Average points
    scored on the road in the fourth quarter - percentage of third down
    conversions - turnover ratio - number of real blonde cheerleaders
    between the 20-40 yardline markers.  Statistically, the best team
    seems to win about 70% of the time - the rest of the time, it's a
    ***shoot.  And there's always one week per season when almost every
    favored team loses.
[End quote]
--
Greg Franklin                     "Shopping on stones, wokking on coals,


 
 
 

POLL: Non-U.S fans (repost)

Post by Gregory C Frankli » Wed, 29 Sep 1993 13:50:36

Here are the computer game's predictions for Week 5.
GAME OF THE WEEK: NYG-Buf -- Billls' revenge?
===

                     Week #5 Game Predictions

   N.Y. Giants    ___   22          Atlanta        ___   27


   Green Bay      ___   17          Indianapolis   ___   18


   L.A. Raiders   ___   20          New Orleans    ___   26


   Washington     ___   25          Philadelphia   ___   28


   Minnesota      ___   18          San Diego      ___   21


   Detroit        ___   27


--
Greg Franklin                     "Shopping on stones, wokking on coals,


 
 
 

POLL: Non-U.S fans (repost)

Post by Gregory C Frankli » Wed, 29 Sep 1993 14:00:52

Here are the results of the computer program's Week 4 predictions.
The computer picked 3 of 10 games correctly, which is terrible.
For the season, the computer program is 29 of 48 (60%).
BEST PREDICTION: Packers vs. Vikings or Seahawks vs. Bengals
WORST PREDICTION: Patriots vs. Jets
===

                     Week #4 Game Predictions

   Pittsburgh     _45   23          Miami          _22   22


   Tampa Bay      _17   16          Seattle        _19   22


   Phoenix        _20   18          L.A. Rams      _28   20


   Cleveland      _10   21          Green Bay      _13   19


   San Francisco  _13   22          New England    __7   15


--
Greg Franklin                     "Shopping on stones, wokking on coals,

 
 
 

POLL: Non-U.S fans (repost)

Post by Gregory C Frankli » Wed, 29 Sep 1993 14:03:59

Here are the current NFL standings as compiled by the computer program.
===

                 AFC Standings

  AFC West          Season      Home       Away  
  -------------     W- L- T    W- L- T    W- L- T
  Denver            2- 1- 0    1- 0- 0    1- 1- 0
  Kansas City       2- 1- 0    1- 0- 0    1- 1- 0
  L.A. Raiders      2- 1- 0    1- 1- 0    1- 0- 0
  San Diego         2- 1- 0    2- 0- 0    0- 1- 0
  Seattle           2- 2- 0    0- 1- 0    2- 1- 0

  AFC Central       Season      Home       Away  
  -------------     W- L- T    W- L- T    W- L- T
  Cleveland         3- 1- 0    2- 0- 0    1- 1- 0
  Pittsburgh        2- 2- 0    1- 1- 0    1- 1- 0
  Houston           1- 3- 0    1- 1- 0    0- 2- 0
  Cincinnati        0- 4- 0    0- 2- 0    0- 2- 0

  AFC East          Season      Home       Away  
  -------------     W- L- T    W- L- T    W- L- T
  Buffalo           2- 1- 0    1- 1- 0    1- 0- 0
  Indianapolis      2- 1- 0    1- 1- 0    1- 0- 0
  Miami             2- 1- 0    0- 1- 0    2- 0- 0
  N.Y. Jets         2- 1- 0    1- 1- 0    1- 0- 0
  New England       0- 4- 0    0- 2- 0    0- 2- 0

                 NFC Standings

  NFC West          Season      Home       Away  
  -------------     W- L- T    W- L- T    W- L- T
  New Orleans       4- 0- 0    3- 0- 0    1- 0- 0
  L.A. Rams         2- 2- 0    1- 0- 0    1- 2- 0
  San Francisco     2- 2- 0    1- 0- 0    1- 2- 0
  Atlanta           0- 4- 0    0- 2- 0    0- 2- 0

  NFC Central       Season      Home       Away  
  -------------     W- L- T    W- L- T    W- L- T
  Detroit           3- 1- 0    2- 0- 0    1- 1- 0
  Minnesota         2- 1- 0    2- 0- 0    0- 1- 0
  Green Bay         1- 2- 0    1- 1- 0    0- 1- 0
  Chicago           1- 2- 0    1- 1- 0    0- 1- 0
  Tampa Bay         0- 3- 0    0- 1- 0    0- 2- 0

  NFC East          Season      Home       Away  
  -------------     W- L- T    W- L- T    W- L- T
  N.Y. Giants       3- 0- 0    2- 0- 0    1- 0- 0
  Philadelphia      3- 0- 0    2- 0- 0    1- 0- 0
  Washington        1- 2- 0    1- 1- 0    0- 1- 0
  Dallas            1- 2- 0    0- 1- 0    1- 1- 0
  Phoenix           1- 3- 0    0- 1- 0    1- 2- 0
--
Greg Franklin                     "Shopping on stones, wokking on coals,

 
 
 

POLL: Non-U.S fans (repost)

Post by Gregory C Frankli » Wed, 29 Sep 1993 14:11:49

Here are the computer program's "power ratings" for all NFL teams.
HIGHLIGHTS: Four-way tie for second place!
            Five top teams from NFC!
            Atlanta's defense: Who are these guys?
===

                          NFL Team Ratings

  Team           Off  Def  Total  |   Team           Off  Def  Total

  Dallas          37   31   68    |   Kansas City     18   23   41
  New Orleans     27   31   58    |   Cleveland       19   21   40
  Philadelphia    35   23   58    |   L.A. Rams       23   17   40
  San Francisco   31   27   58    |   Chicago         22   17   39
  Washington      30   28   58    |   Detroit         19   20   39
  Buffalo         30   21   51    |   N.Y. Jets       18   21   39
  Houston         26   23   49    |   Phoenix         14   25   39
  Green Bay       22   26   48    |   Denver          21   17   38
  L.A. Raiders    20   27   47    |   Indianapolis    10   24   34
  Minnesota       19   28   47    |   Seattle          9   23   32
  Miami           23   23   46    |   Atlanta         29    1   30
  San Diego       22   23   45    |   Cincinnati      12    7   19
  Pittsburgh      17   27   44    |   Tampa Bay        7    8   15
  N.Y. Giants     22   20   42    |   New England      5    7   12
--
Greg Franklin                     "Shopping on stones, wokking on coals,

 
 
 

POLL: Non-U.S fans (repost)

Post by Gregory C Frankli » Wed, 29 Sep 1993 14:13:43

The computer program twiddles a bit with the NFC bracket.

As of today, the computer program predicts:

 Dallas
--------------+
              ] Dallas
              ]--------------+
 New Orleans  ]              ]
--------------+              ]
                             ]
                             ] DALLAS (SUPER BOWL CHAMPS)
                             ]---------------------------
 Houston                     ]
--------------+              ]
              ] Buffalo      ]
              ]--------------+
 Buffalo      ]
--------------+
--
Greg Franklin                     "Shopping on stones, wokking on coals,

 
 
 

POLL: Non-U.S fans (repost)

Post by RENE ZANDBERGE » Wed, 29 Sep 1993 23:48:30



Quote:

>Here are the computer program's "power ratings" for all NFL teams.
>  ... (deleted)....

>Greg Franklin                     "Shopping on stones, wokking on coals,


Hi!
I usually hate replies to this kind of posts saying: how can team
X be in position N while... etc,etc,
But I have to ask here: were any results of last year's games
processed in order to get these rankings?
Cheers,
     Rene Zandbergen