OT Will The End of Oil Mean The End of America?

OT Will The End of Oil Mean The End of America?

Post by s_knigh » Sun, 30 May 2004 12:34:22


http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0301-12.htm

The world is quickly running out of oil. In the year 2000, global
production stood at 76 Million Barrels per Day (MBD). By 2020, demand
is forecast to reach 112 MBD, an increase of 47%. But additions to
proven reserves have virtually stopped and it is clear that pumping at
present rates is unsustainable. Estimates of the date of "peak global
production" vary with some experts saying it already may have occurred
as early as the year 2000. New Scientist magazine recently placed the
year of peak production in 2004. Virtually all experts believe it will
almost certainly occur before the end of this decade.

And the rate of depletion is accelerating. Imagine a production curve
that rises slowly over 145 yearsthe time since oil was
discovered in Pennsylvania in 1859. Over this time, the entire world
shifted to oil as the foundation of industrial civilization. It
invested over one hundreds trillion dollars in a physical
infrastructure and an economic system run entirely on oil. But oil
production is now at its peak and the right hand side of the curve is
a virtual drop off. Known reserves are being drawn down at 4 times the
rate of new discoveries.

The reason for the drop off is that not only have all the "big"
discoveries already been made, the rate of consumption is increasing
dramatically. Annual world energy use is up five times since 1945.
Increases are now driven by massive developing countriesChina,
India, Brazilgrowing and emulating first or at least second
world consumption standards. Fixed supply. Stalled discoveries.
Sharply increased consumption. This is the formula for global oil
depletion within the next few decades.

The situation is especially critical in the US. With barely 4% of the
worlds population, the US consumes 26% of the world's energy.
But the US produced only 9 MBD in 2000 while consuming 19 MBD. It made
up the difference by importing 10 MBD, or 53% of its needs. By 2020,
the US Department of Energy forecasts domestic demand will grow to 25
MBD but production will be down to 7 MBD. The daily shortfall of 18
MBD or 72% of needs, will all need to be imported.

Perhaps it goes without saying but it deserves repeating anyway: oil
is the sine qua non of "industrial" civilizationthe one thing
without which such civilization cannot exist. All of the world's 600
million automobiles depend on oil. So do virtually all other
commodities and critical processes: airlines, chemicals, plastics,
medicines, agriculture, heating, etc. Almost all of the increase in
world food productivity over the past 50 years is attributable to
increases in the use of oil-derived additives: pesticides; herbicides;
fungicides; fertilizers; and machinery.

When oil is gone, civilization will be stupendously different. The
onset of rapid depletion will trigger convulsions on a global scale,
including, likely, global pandemics and die-offs of significant
portions of the world's human population. The "have" countries will
face the necessity kicking the "have-nots" out of the global lifeboat
in order to assure their own survival. Even before such conditions are
reached, inelastic supply interacting with inelastic demand will drive
the price of oil and oil-derived commodities through the stratosphere,
effecting by market forces alone massive shifts in the current
distribution of global wealth.

If the US economy is not to grind to a halt under these circumstances
it must choose one of three alternate strategies: dramatically lower
its living standards (something it is not willing to do);
substantially increase the energy efficiency of its economy; or make
up the shortfall by securing supplies from other countries. President
Bushs National Energy Policy published in March 2001 explicitly
commits the US to the third choice: Grab the Oil. It is this choice
that is now driving US military and national security policy. And, in
fact, the past 60 years of US policy in the Middle East can only be
understood as the effort to control access to the worlds
largest supply of oil.

 
 
 

OT Will The End of Oil Mean The End of America?

Post by Jon Russel » Sun, 30 May 2004 12:58:15


Quote:

>The world is quickly running out of oil.
>New Scientist magazine recently placed the
>year of peak production in 2004. Virtually all experts believe it will
>almost certainly occur before the end of this decade.

Shiny!

Don't forget to just say NO to playoffs

Jon Russell, the CheeseHusker

 
 
 

OT Will The End of Oil Mean The End of America?

Post by Jefferson N. Glapsk » Sun, 30 May 2004 13:39:02


Quote:
> http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0301-12.htm

> The world is quickly running out of oil. In the year 2000, global
> production stood at 76 Million Barrels per Day (MBD). By 2020, demand
> is forecast to reach 112 MBD, an increase of 47%. But additions to
> proven reserves have virtually stopped and it is clear that pumping at
> present rates is unsustainable. Estimates of the date of "peak global
> production" vary with some experts saying it already may have occurred
> as early as the year 2000. New Scientist magazine recently placed the
> year of peak production in 2004. Virtually all experts believe it will
> almost certainly occur before the end of this decade.

> And the rate of depletion is accelerating. Imagine a production curve
> that rises slowly over 145 years—the time since oil was
> discovered in Pennsylvania in 1859. Over this time, the entire world
> shifted to oil as the foundation of industrial civilization. It
> invested over one hundreds trillion dollars in a physical
> infrastructure and an economic system run entirely on oil. But oil
> production is now at its peak and the right hand side of the curve is
> a virtual drop off. Known reserves are being drawn down at 4 times the
> rate of new discoveries.

> The reason for the drop off is that not only have all the "big"
> discoveries already been made, the rate of consumption is increasing
> dramatically. Annual world energy use is up five times since 1945.
> Increases are now driven by massive developing countries—China,
> India, Brazil—growing and emulating first or at least second
> world consumption standards. Fixed supply. Stalled discoveries.
> Sharply increased consumption. This is the formula for global oil
> depletion within the next few decades.

> The situation is especially critical in the US. With barely 4% of the
> world’s population, the US consumes 26% of the world's energy.
> But the US produced only 9 MBD in 2000 while consuming 19 MBD. It made
> up the difference by importing 10 MBD, or 53% of its needs. By 2020,
> the US Department of Energy forecasts domestic demand will grow to 25
> MBD but production will be down to 7 MBD. The daily shortfall of 18
> MBD or 72% of needs, will all need to be imported.

> Perhaps it goes without saying but it deserves repeating anyway: oil
> is the sine qua non of "industrial" civilization—the one thing
> without which such civilization cannot exist. All of the world's 600
> million automobiles depend on oil. So do virtually all other
> commodities and critical processes: airlines, chemicals, plastics,
> medicines, agriculture, heating, etc. Almost all of the increase in
> world food productivity over the past 50 years is attributable to
> increases in the use of oil-derived additives: pesticides; herbicides;
> fungicides; fertilizers; and machinery.

> When oil is gone, civilization will be stupendously different. The
> onset of rapid depletion will trigger convulsions on a global scale,
> including, likely, global pandemics and die-offs of significant
> portions of the world's human population. The "have" countries will
> face the necessity kicking the "have-nots" out of the global lifeboat
> in order to assure their own survival. Even before such conditions are
> reached, inelastic supply interacting with inelastic demand will drive
> the price of oil and oil-derived commodities through the stratosphere,
> effecting by market forces alone massive shifts in the current
> distribution of global wealth.

> If the US economy is not to grind to a halt under these circumstances
> it must choose one of three alternate strategies: dramatically lower
> its living standards (something it is not willing to do);
> substantially increase the energy efficiency of its economy; or make
> up the shortfall by securing supplies from other countries. President
> Bush’s National Energy Policy published in March 2001 explicitly
> commits the US to the third choice: Grab the Oil. It is this choice
> that is now driving US military and national security policy. And, in
> fact, the past 60 years of US policy in the Middle East can only be
> understood as the effort to control access to the world’s
> largest supply of oil.

Yet, the price of oil fell today.

Jefferson

 
 
 

OT Will The End of Oil Mean The End of America?

Post by JXSter » Mon, 31 May 2004 04:58:58



Quote:
>http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0301-12.htm

>The world is quickly running out of oil.

Pile o'crap.

Double the price of oil, and there's another 300 years supply in old
wells, deep water, tar sands, shale.

Double it again, and it can be made from coal for yet another 300
years.

We'll have 600 years or so to ease down.

... and at those prices, biofuels, solar, and nuclear give sustainable
energy indefinitely.  

Get fusion working sometime in the next thousand years, and prices
probably go back down, maybe a lot.

Have a nice day.

 
 
 

OT Will The End of Oil Mean The End of America?

Post by Dave Zer » Mon, 31 May 2004 06:20:30

Quote:

> http://SportToday.org/

> The world is quickly running out of oil. In the year 2000, global
> production stood at 76 Million Barrels per Day (MBD). By 2020, demand
> is forecast to reach 112 MBD, an increase of 47%. But additions to
> proven reserves have virtually stopped and it is clear that pumping at
> present rates is unsustainable. Estimates of the date of "peak global
> production" vary with some experts saying it already may have occurred
> as early as the year 2000. New Scientist magazine recently placed the
> year of peak production in 2004. Virtually all experts believe it will
> almost certainly occur before the end of this decade.

> And the rate of depletion is accelerating. Imagine a production curve
> that rises slowly over 145 years—the time since oil was
> discovered in Pennsylvania in 1859. Over this time, the entire world
> shifted to oil as the foundation of industrial civilization. It
> invested over one hundreds trillion dollars in a physical
> infrastructure and an economic system run entirely on oil. But oil
> production is now at its peak and the right hand side of the curve is
> a virtual drop off. Known reserves are being drawn down at 4 times the
> rate of new discoveries.

> The reason for the drop off is that not only have all the "big"
> discoveries already been made, the rate of consumption is increasing
> dramatically. Annual world energy use is up five times since 1945.
> Increases are now driven by massive developing countries—China,
> India, Brazil—growing and emulating first or at least second
> world consumption standards. Fixed supply. Stalled discoveries.
> Sharply increased consumption. This is the formula for global oil
> depletion within the next few decades.

> The situation is especially critical in the US. With barely 4% of the
> world’s population, the US consumes 26% of the world's energy.
> But the US produced only 9 MBD in 2000 while consuming 19 MBD. It made
> up the difference by importing 10 MBD, or 53% of its needs. By 2020,
> the US Department of Energy forecasts domestic demand will grow to 25
> MBD but production will be down to 7 MBD. The daily shortfall of 18
> MBD or 72% of needs, will all need to be imported.

> Perhaps it goes without saying but it deserves repeating anyway: oil
> is the sine qua non of "industrial" civilization—the one thing
> without which such civilization cannot exist. All of the world's 600
> million automobiles depend on oil. So do virtually all other
> commodities and critical processes: airlines, chemicals, plastics,
> medicines, agriculture, heating, etc. Almost all of the increase in
> world food productivity over the past 50 years is attributable to
> increases in the use of oil-derived additives: pesticides; herbicides;
> fungicides; fertilizers; and machinery.

> When oil is gone, civilization will be stupendously different. The
> onset of rapid depletion will trigger convulsions on a global scale,
> including, likely, global pandemics and die-offs of significant
> portions of the world's human population. The "have" countries will
> face the necessity kicking the "have-nots" out of the global lifeboat
> in order to assure their own survival. Even before such conditions are
> reached, inelastic supply interacting with inelastic demand will drive
> the price of oil and oil-derived commodities through the stratosphere,
> effecting by market forces alone massive shifts in the current
> distribution of global wealth.

> If the US economy is not to grind to a halt under these circumstances
> it must choose one of three alternate strategies: dramatically lower
> its living standards (something it is not willing to do);
> substantially increase the energy efficiency of its economy; or make
> up the shortfall by securing supplies from other countries. President
> Bush’s National Energy Policy published in March 2001 explicitly
> commits the US to the third choice: Grab the Oil. It is this choice
> that is now driving US military and national security policy. And, in
> fact, the past 60 years of US policy in the Middle East can only be
> understood as the effort to control access to the world’s
> largest supply of oil.

Oil prices will go up - no denying that. Doesn't matter who's in office,
by 2006 you'll be paying three dollars a gallon.

There is quite a lot of oil (mostly in Siberia) that has not been
economically viable to try and tap yet - if our "current suppliers " run
out, we'll probably decide that now it does make economic sense to drill
them.

But more importantly, technology will advance and change to the point
where non-oil-burning cars will be the standard before we run completely
out of oil.

You can run a car on ethanol and methanol - and you can make those
materials from almost any organic matter. You can run a car on
electricity - right now the electric cars look hokey and can't
accelerate, but in 30 or 40 years when the projected supply is supposed
to be dry.

Scientists may well find a way to synthesize petroleum in laboratories
from other junk materials.

I'm convinced that the human species will solve the oil problem before
it causes serious tragedy.

--
Dave Zero

"And I don't care about making an ass out of myself because most people
already realize I am one." - Dr. Kary B. Mullis

"I criticize by creation" - Cicero

"I'm not here to make people happy. I prefer to***people off." - Liam
Gallagher

 
 
 

OT Will The End of Oil Mean The End of America?

Post by R » Mon, 31 May 2004 12:54:53

Quote:

> New Scientist magazine recently placed the year of peak production in
> 2004. Virtually all experts believe it will almost certainly occur before
> the end of this decade.

You can find quotes just like that made throughout the 20th century.
 
 
 

OT Will The End of Oil Mean The End of America?

Post by George Shous » Tue, 01 Jun 2004 06:06:21



Quote:
>http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0301-12.htm

>The world is quickly running out of oil. In the year 2000, global
>production stood at 76 Million Barrels per Day (MBD). By 2020, demand
>is forecast to reach 112 MBD, an increase of 47%. But additions to
>proven reserves have virtually stopped and it is clear that pumping at
>present rates is unsustainable. Estimates of the date of "peak global
>production" vary with some experts saying it already may have occurred
>as early as the year 2000. New Scientist magazine recently placed the
>year of peak production in 2004. Virtually all experts believe it will
>almost certainly occur before the end of this decade.

/snip/

I certainly hope that this author does not this that the
statement "year of peak production in 2004" supports the
contention that "the world is quickly running out of oil".

George Shouse                  http://www.shouses.com
-----------------------------------------------------
Always a fan of the Los Angeles Lakers
Rest In Peace, Francis Dayle "Chick" Hearn
            Nov. 27, 1916 - Aug 5, 2002
ASBNLL FAQs at http://www.asbnll.com/