Rusher rating system and 1994 Rusher Ratings (revised)

Rusher rating system and 1994 Rusher Ratings (revised)

Post by SCOTT_RICHA » Sat, 31 Dec 1994 13:54:57


I have modified the original benchmarks I used, by rounding them up to
produce a more intuitive and easier to handle numbers in the formula, by
taking them to the obvious closest integer, for yards per carry, and
setting the standard at 100 for a 100 rating in rushing yards per game,
which makes sense.  This will raise the top performances by about 2 pts
and lesser performances by about one point, and works out very well as the
top rating in history is about the same as the top QB rating in history.

Inspired by the receiver rating system, I have come up with something
similar for rushers.  This system does not rate running backs, just
rushers, although the only qualifiers will be running backs you can still
work it out for others if you wish.

This is how I went about it :-

I decided the four categories would be :-

1) Number of carries per game
2) Number of yards per game
3) Average yards per rush
4) Number of TDs per game

i.e. how often you move the ball for your term, how far you do per game
and per attempt, and how often you score for them.

I then took the top 50 performances in history from 1960 onwards, i.e.
the modern era, and averaged them for the above four categories to come
up with a benchmark for a 'perfect' season in that category.

The benchmarks turned out to be, after minor modification :-

Number of carries  :  22
Yards per game     : 100
Average per carry  : 5.4
Touchdowns per game:   1

These are what need to be achieved to get a rating of 100 in the system.  
i.e. you need a season for the ages, i.e. a Jim Brown, O.J. Simpson, Eric
***erson or Walter Payton type performance.

The formula works out to be :-

Carries per game/14.67
Yards per game  /66.67
Yards per rush  / 3.6
TDs per game    / 0.68

Add these four components together.

Then, divide by 6 and multiply by 100 to determine the final rating.

If any one component is greater than 2.375, treat it as 2.375, as is done
in the QB rating system, so there is a maximum limit.
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A minimum of 10 carries per game is needed to qualify, and all those
rushers I have included on this list had 10 or more carries per game.
That is the criteria I neglected to mention when I determined benchmarks,
and the 50 top past performances, I only included players who averaged 10
carries or more that season.

All in all, this was a pretty crappy season for running the football, the
league average was down about 0.3 to 3.7 from the usual 4, which is a big
drop, and very few great backs around.  I don't know if the new rules
made people want to throw more, if people can't run block, or the run
defenses were really good.  Minnesota was amazing, of course.

1994 RUSHER RATINGS  (minimum 10 carries/game to qualify)

 1. Emmitt Smith    100.6    A truly brilliant season, as the rating shows.
                             Would have cracked 100 if he played last game.
 2. Barry Sanders    90.3
 3. Chris Warren     83.1
 4. Natrone Means    82.3
 5. Marshall Faulk   78.5    These 5 were way ahead of the pack.

 6. Thurman Thomas   66.0
 7. Terry Allen      65.2
 8. Rodney Hampton   64.7
 9. Eric Rhett       63.6
10. Lewis Tillman    59.8
11. Jerome Bettis    58.2
12. Harvey Williams  57.8
13. Bam Morris       57.5
14. Ricky Watters    57.2
15. Bernie Parmalee  56.8
16. Leroy Hoard      56.5
17. Craig Heyward    56.0
18. Barry Foster     54.8
19. Johnny Johnson   54.3
20. Marion Butts     54.2
21. Marcus Allen     53.0
22. Leonard Russell  52.5
23. Ron Moore        50.7
24. Lorenzo White    48.6
25. Edgar Bennett    46.4
26. Gary Brown       46.0
27. Ricky Ervins     44.2

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Top ten carries per game since 1960

 1. 1984 James Wilder      25.44
 2. 1986 Eric***erson    25.25
 3. 1983 Eric***erson    24.38
 4. 1992 Barry Foster      24.38
 5. 1988 Eric***erson    24.25
 6. 1977 Walter Payton     24.21
 7. 1984 Walter Payton     23.81
 8. 1985 Marcus Allen      23.75
 9. 1984 Eric***erson    23.69
10. 1981 George Rogers     23.63

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Top Ten average per rush since 1960

 1. 1972 Bobby Douglass      6.9
 2. 1963 Jim Brown           6.4
 3. 1973 Mercury Morris      6.4
 4. 1973 O.J. Simpson        6.0
 5. 1960 John David Crow     5.9
 6. 1960 Jim Brown           5.8
 7. 1963 Paul Lowe           5.7
 8. 1994 Barry Sanders       5.7
 9. 1960 Abner Haynes        5.6
10. 1972 Franco Harris       5.6
11. 1984 Eric***erson      5.6
12. 1989 James Brooks        5.6
13. 1962 Amos Marsh          5.6

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Top Ten touchdowns per game since 1960

 1. 1983 John Riggins      1.50
 2. 1962 Jim Taylor        1.36
 3. 1985 Joe Morris        1.31
 4. 1994 Emmitt Smith      1.31
 5. 1982 Marcus Allen      1.22
 6. 1965 Jim Brown         1.21
 7. 1979 Earl Campbell     1.19
 8. 1981 Chuck Muncie      1.19
 9. 1964 Lenny Moore       1.14
10. 1968 Leroy Kelly       1.14
11. 1975 O.J. Simpson      1.14
12. 1975 Pete Banaszak     1.14        

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Top Ten yards per game since 1960

 1. 1973 O.J. Simpson     143.1
 2. 1963 Jim Brown        133.1
 3. 1977 Walter Payton    132.3
 4. 1984 Eric***erson   131.6
 5. 1975 O.J. Simpson     129.8
 6. 1980 Earl Campbell    120.9
 7. 1994 Barry Sanders    117.7
 8. 1986 Eric***erson   113.8
 9. 1983 Eric***erson   113.0
10. 1965 Jim Brown        110.3

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Rusher rating system and 1994 Rusher Ratings (revised)

Post by ReaganCo » Sat, 31 Dec 1994 23:50:00

I don't know, but something seems SERIOUSLY wrong with your system...

Barry Sanders, with the fourth highest total ever for yds in a season, the
7th (or so) highest ever for yds/carry, and 7th highest ever in yds/game,
ranks TEN points behind Emmitt "I can only get 4 yds per run and can't win
the rushing title even the Barry Switzer vowed to get me the ball as often
as possible" Smith.

Granted, TDs are important, but, as most coaches will tell you, getting to
the red zone is MORE important.

Looks like a formal to give your favorite back the spotilight...

 
 
 

Rusher rating system and 1994 Rusher Ratings (revised)

Post by Mark=Novakosky%HW=Stor%PCPD=.. » Sun, 01 Jan 1995 04:27:30

Quote:
>I don't know, but something seems SERIOUSLY wrong with your system...

>Barry Sanders, with the fourth highest total ever for yds in a season, the
>7th (or so) highest ever for yds/carry, and 7th highest ever in yds/game,
>ranks TEN points behind Emmitt "I can only get 4 yds per run and can't win
>the rushing title even the Barry Switzer vowed to get me the ball as often
>as possible" Smith.

>Granted, TDs are important, but, as most coaches will tell you, getting to
>the red zone is MORE important.

>Looks like a formal to give your favorite back the spotilight...

So, what are you saying...TDs should not be factored in to measure
a RB's overall rating??  Barry doesn't have more TDs because Fontes
hanks him, once they get into the red zone.  I wonder why they do that???
Could it be that Barry, although he led all rushers this year, also led
the league in negative yards.  Yeah, all those times he is caught behind
the line of scrimmage, because he's so busy dancing around looking for
the big gain.  

This is the general consensus:  That Barry is the better pure runner and
Emmitt is the better *RB*.  Thus, Emmitt should come out on top of a
*Rusher Rating System* ie. Running Back Rating System

Mark N.

 
 
 

Rusher rating system and 1994 Rusher Ratings (revised)

Post by Aaron Bergm » Sun, 01 Jan 1995 09:31:08

: This is the general consensus:  That Barry is the better pure runner and
: Emmitt is the better *RB*.  Thus, Emmitt should come out on top of a
: *Rusher Rating System* ie. Running Back Rating System

Try again.

If this was a running back rating system, then receptions would be
factored in. All this measures is ability to "rush." Barry is the best
pure "rusher" in the NFL.

I don't think TDs measure a RB's ability to rush,

Aaron

: Mark N.

 
 
 

Rusher rating system and 1994 Rusher Ratings (revised)

Post by SCOTT_RICHA » Sun, 01 Jan 1995 18:58:47

Actually, I will comment on this :-  what I envision the system as rating
is rushers, yet, not pure rushers, but a rusher's all around value.

A valuability rating, if you like.  Scoring is obviously a big part of a
player's value to a team.  If BArry was good enough in his coaches
opinion to be in for goal line pounding and could take it, he would be.
His average would also be worse if he was in for short yardage, too.  So,
while Barry wins in average per carry and yards per game this year,
Emmitt wins handily in scoring, and also wins in carries for game.

If Emmitt had his average game projected for another game and had not
been hurt he probably would have been rated even higher, maybe 107 or so,
i.e. 2 more TDS, another 80 or so yards and 20+ carries. He missed a game
and a half or so, remember, actually, that projection might be interesting!
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Rusher rating system and 1994 Rusher Ratings (revised)

Post by SCOTT_RICHA » Tue, 03 Jan 1995 10:04:46

Whoa! which coaches are these who have told you a coach would rather get
to the red zone than score TDS? :)  Although the two are somewhat
dependent, of course, I doubt this is true.
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