Predictions for men's NCAA's

Predictions for men's NCAA's

Post by RAYMO » Mon, 29 Nov 1993 09:27:58


     Well I should be doing my paper but I thought that's what extentions
were for. Anyways here is the listing - somewhat large - of what I think
that will happen for this year's mens NCAA championships. Of course I
don't have a listing of the incomming freshman - are there any big names
out there?? - so if anybody has anything to add, feel free. Here it goes
(drum roll please):

Day 1:

200 Free Relay:
8th place last year : 1:19.10 in the am 1:19.96 at night
16th place last year: 1:20.56 in the am 1:20.76 at night

1 - Stanford
2 - Kansas
3 - Arizona

Stanford is only losing Erik Maurer who was the only Senior on the relay
last year. Even if he was the fastest split Stanford won by 3/10ths and
in a 50 it shouldn't be hard to fing someone to replace him for a split.
Kansas graduated one - with a 20.00 - and that's a dime a dozen to get
that - who knows maybe Stanford will be upset by Kansas.

500 Free:

8th place last year : 4:20.14 in the am 4:24.78 at night
16th place last year: 4:22.85 in the am 4:24.77 at night

1 - Marcel Wouda - Michigan
2 - Matt Hooper - Texas
3 - Chad Carvin - Arizona

This was the finishing position last year as well as this year. Hooper
was within 4/10ths of Wouda but Wouda looks too strong. Carvin was behind
by 9/10ths but a second ahead of the rest of the field, unless there is a
suprise ...

200 IM:

8th place last year : 1:47.14 in the am 1:49.50 in finals
16th place last year: 1:48.18 in the am 1:48.80 in finals

1 - Greg Burgess - Florida
2 - Josh Davis - Texas
3 - ?

Burgess should repeat, although he was beaten in a close come behind loss
at Pan Pac's this summer. Nobody should be within a second and a half
behind him. Davis had a good summer and could move up a spot from last
year. After that, anybody else can go a 1:45 to 1:46, way too close to
call, depends who wants it.

50 Free :

8th time last year : 19.65 in the am 19.91 at night
16th time last year: 19.86 in the am 20.00 at night

1 - ?

Anybody can win the 50. The top 19 swimmers were under 20.00, the most in
the history of the NCAA. 4 Seniors are out of the final from last year
including the top 2, and the next three were 19.49, 19.50 and 19.51. My
guess would be with Joe Hudepohl and Gustavo Borges but it's anybody out
there who has a good start and turn.

400 Medley Relay :

8th time last year : 3:14.86 in the am 3:16.51 at night (1 DQ)
16th time last year: 3:17.95 in the am 3:18.70 at night

1 - Stanford
2 - Michigan
3 - Texas

Stanford's whole relay will be back from last year, and they won by
almost 3 seconds - hard guess by me unless they get DQ'ed. Michigan lost
their flyer but they were still a second and a half ahead of Texas, and
can fill that spot with someone who can go 54.low. Texas brings back
their whole relay as well.

Day 2:

200 Medley Relay:

1 - Stanford
2 - ?

8th time last year : 1:29.01 in am 1:29.07 at night (1 DQ)
16th time last year: 1:31.71 in am (only 14 teams made it 5 were DQ'ed)
                                   1:31.98 at night

Stanford lost by .05 to Arizona last year but that was with a 20.61 fly
split from Seth Pepper, 8/10th's faster than the next fastest split -
that will be hard to repeat that with out Pepper, and Stanford should
walk with this one as well. The rest of the field was within 8/10th's so
anybody could come in an place (yes, even the two time champions from the
years past Princeton.)

400 IM :

8th time last year : 3:50.34 in am 3:51.75 at finals
16th time last year: 3:52.14 in am 3:55.25 in finals

1 - Greg Burgess - Florida
2 - Marcel Wouda - Michigan
3 - Royce (James) Sharp - Michigan

Well it looks like this event doesn't even have to be swam except the
rest of the points that will be distributed to the rest of the field.
Burgess has 3 seconds on Wouda last year and another 2 1/2 on Sharp.
After Sharp there is another 3 seconds. Unless there is a suprise than
teh results will be the same as last year (less Eric Namesnik).

100 Fly :

8th time last year : 48.03 in am 48.59 in finals
16th time last year: 48.30 in am 49.10 in finals

1 - ?

This will be another great race that anybody has the possibility of
winning now that Seth Pepper from Arizona is graduated. only one other
Senior is gone from the finals (J.R. DeSouza from Tennessee). The rest of
the field was 47.72 (Trip Zedlitz - Stanford), 47.70 (Rafal Szukala -
Iowa), 47.82 (Diego Perdomo - Texas A&M), 47.93(Mike Merrell - Southern
Cal.), 47.95 (Martin Herrmann - Cal Brekley). 2/10th's separated the
field and with 2 guys under 48.00 in consols it will be a close race with
nobody to be the clear favorite (but I will go with Merrell who I think
will win the 200 fly)

200 Free :

8th time last year : 1:36.57 in am 1:36.33 in finals
16th time last year: 1:37.57 in am 1:38.06 in finals

1 - Josh Davis - Texas
2 - Gustavo Borges - Michigan
3 - Joe Hudepohl - Stanford

This will be another good race because all of the people in finals last
year will be back again (well at least they will be eligible), and there
was only two seniors in consols last year. I give Davis the edge because
of his fast summer swims (1:48 at Pan Pac's this summer which was his
best time by a second). Borges was a 1:33 two years ago so he could
easily get back down there and make it a race with the other two - don't
forget Hudepohl, he'll be in the race, he only lost by .06 to Davis last
year.

100 *** :

8th time last year : 54.61 in the am 55.09 in finals
16th time last year: 55.63 in the am 55.50 in finals

1 - Tyler Mayfield - Stanford
2 - Jeff Commings - Texas
3 - Judson Crawford - Ohio State , J.J. Freitag - Stanford ,
    Robert Abernethy - Arizona

Mayfield was 7/10th's ahead of Commings who was 1/2 a second ahead of the
rest of the field. The other 3 are a toss up and unless somebody jumps up
these 3 will fight for the final medal, that is if Abernethy makes it
into finals this year and doesn't win consols by a second.

100 Back :

8th time last year : 48.42 in am 48.44 in finals
16th time last year: 48.88 in am 49.26 in finals

1 - Derek Weatherford - Stanford
2 - Jason Stelle - Southern Cal.
3 - Trip Zedlitz - Stanford

Two Tennessee guys were the only Seniors out of finals to graduate from
finals last year (Trip Schwenk - 2nd and Raymond Brown - 6th).
Weatherford is the favorite to repeat, he has already been pretty quick
(1:43 in the 200) this year. Stelle had a great summer and I pick him for
the upset finish - 7th last year - over Zedlitz. Except for Brad
Bridgewater who could suprise, everybody else will probably be over 48
(if not they will not be too far under).

800 Free Relay :

8th time last year : 6:31.79
16th time last year: 6:37.72

1 - Michigan
2 - Texas
3 - Stanford

Again Michigan graduates Brian Gunn who was their slowest man but they
beat Texas by almost 2 seconds and Stanford by 2 more. Texas and Stanford
relays have no graduates so they could be the same. If Michigan gets a
1:38.0 or faster 4th guy (actually a 1:39.0 or faster because Borges
split a 1:34.66 last year and he should be a second faster than that)
they will repeat. The top 3 will be ahead of the rest of the field.

Day 3 :

1650 Free :

8th time last year : 15:07.36
16th time last year: 15:19.75

1 - Marcel Wouda - Michigan
2 - Matt Hooper - Texas
3 - Chad Carvin - Arizona

Well if you look at the 500 you will see the same thing except this race
should be closer. Last year these guys went in this order and were
separated by only 2 seconds with Wouda passing Hooper within the last 200
yards. The next person behind these 3 returning is over 13 1/2 seconds
behind so unless somebody has done a lot of training than here are your
top 3, of course who wants it the most should win.

200 Back :

8th time last year : 1:44.37 in am 1:45.00 at finals
16th time last year: 1:46.15 in am 1:46.92 at finals

1 - Royce Sharp - Michigan
2 - Derek Weatherford - Stanford
3 - Brad Bridgewater - Texas

With the only graduating senior in finals winning last yeaar (Trip
Schwenk - Tennessee) there will be a good race between Sharp and
Weatherford. Weatherford should win the 100 the day before which may give
him momentum and Sharp will swim the 400 IM the day before, which may
tire him, but the 2 were within .09 of a second of each other last year
so it should be a good race. Bridgewater should get third, and may
challenge for the top 2 but besides him the rest of the field will be a
second behind.

100 Free :

8th time last year : 43.74 in am 44.35 in finals
16th time last year: 44.12 in am 45.02 in finals

1 - Gustavo Borges - Michigan
2 - Joe Hudepohl - Stanford
3 - ?

Well this could be a close race if Borges wants it to be. Hudepohl was in
consols last year which was a mistake on his part, he would have been
third so he has to make it in this year to place. 3 seniors were 2,3, and
4th last year so after Borges the rest of the field has a chance.

200 *** :

8th time last year : 1:58.69 in am 1:59.32 in finals
16th time last year: 1:59.82 in am 2:01.29 in finals (1 DQ)

1 - Tyler Mayfield - Stanford
2 - Kurt Grote - Stanford
3 - ?

Mayfield beat out Grote by .02 last year but he is favored to win the 100
and it's his senior year so he will have some incentive to win his last
collegiate race. Grote should take the rest of the field but after that
it will be close. There are about 5 guys who can go 1:57.5 to 1:58.5 and
it all depends who has the best swim that night who will be up there on
the podium.

200 Fly :

8th time last year : 1:46.24 in am 1:45.80 in finals
16th time last year: 1:47.13 in am 1:47.72 in finals

1 - Mike Merrell - Southern Cal.
2 - Ray Carey - Stanford
3 - Rafal Szukala - Iowa

Carey won the 200 last year but that will be hard to repeat. The top 9
swimmers from last year were all Freshman or Sophmores (only Brian Gunn
was a Senior who was second). Merrell I feel had a bit of an off year
because of the coaching change at USC but will be back to win this ...

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Predictions for men's NCAA's

Post by Benjamin John Keye » Tue, 30 Nov 1993 04:25:27

Just a comment/observation :

The morning times seem to be faster across the board vs. evening finals.

What is the reason behind this ??

My guess is that because of the general depth of the meet field,
everyone has to really go all out, making sure that they make the finals.

Any truth to this ??

Also there may have been some other reason for the slower times that
someone who was there would know.

Just wondering....

                            -bjk