Sport Today

I agree.  Swimming, like tennis, is a sport of the affluent, or at least
of the middle class. To win you must train year-round.  To train
year-round, you need indoor pools.  Building an indoor pool requires
excess disposable income.  As other countries have become more affluent
(e.g., Brazil), they have produced higher quality swimmers.

Of course, there are other factors.  The old Soviet Union and the Eastern
Bloc countries - and more recently China - can manufacture champions by
selecting prospects early and then, essentially, forcing them to
compete.  This is in contrast to the Western way in which athletes (as
well as artists and scholars and entreprenuers) spring organically from
the culture without state mandate.  Essentially, Olympic victories (and
world records) are propaganda tools for totalitarian regimes, and I doubt
anyone needed me to tell them that.

This is not to say that the rest of the world can't teach the U.S.
something about training, however.  It continues to fascinate me how the
Austrailian distance swimmers do so well without the massive training of
their U.S. counterparts.

bill fallon
a really fat ex-swimmer

Here are events I'm really surprised aren't included:

Men:

200 free: It's a real long shot, but if there's a slow heat
(unlikely), Hudepohl could pull it out.

200 IM: Who knows what Dolan will do here, if he dropped 3
secs. in '95.

4x200 FR: Historically our weakest event, but we should have
been ranked 1st last year.  Losing Chad Carvin is a big hit.

Women:

50 free: What about Amy Van***n?  She's dominated this race
in '95.  The only chance of her losing is if China's doped.
She'll go sub-25 for sure.

100 free: If China's clean, this is between Thompson and Van
Almsick.  I'd pick Franzi, but Jenny could pull the upset.

200 IM: Allison Wagener swam through '95.  Only a doped Lu Bin
beat her in '94.  I think she's the favorite here.

400 IM: see 200 IM but change "doped Lu Bin" to "probably doped
Dai Gaohong".

4x100 MR: It's unlikely this year, considering the Aussies
depth, but if Amanda Beard can lower her time to the mid to low
1:08's, then it's possible.  Then again- China could be doped.

In all likelihood, some of these races WILL fall the US's way,
and some of them WON'T.  I think the US is looking at around
10-11 golds in Hotlanta.

Kevin

POssible Gold medals for USA:

Men

1)400IM....but Dolan has a hard time going with the Finnish swimmer who is the
world record holder in the 200IM and world record holder in short course
400IM....

2) 200 backstroke......I think a time of 1.58.1 or lower will be needed to win
this event...remember SELKOV from Russia is hot at the moment in both
backstroke events

3) 100 Back.....USA has the WR holder....

4) 4x 100 Free Relay..the USA is the world record holder in this event

5) 4 x 100 Medley Relay....DITTO and they have a lot of depth here

Women

6) 400 free...depends on whether Germany's VAN ALMSICK is at peak form..if she
is she could swim a 4.06 which should be enough for her to win the gold...

7) 800 free..this could be the tough one....

8) 4 x 200 Free relay..they should win this comfortably unless Germany
surprises them...

P.S

possible surprises:

1)4 x 100 free relay for girls.....let's see if the Chinese can be beaten here

2)100 free...the duo of FOX and HALL have to swim a 49.1 or lower to have any
chance of upsetting POPOV and holding off the fast improving Brazillian duo.

3) 50m Men Free....Popov doesn't look so *** in this event and he has a
tendency to get out of the blocks slow sometimes..if the Americans or the
Brazillians can catch him off guard..they might just pip him for it....need a
22.1 or better to win this event..maybe even under 22 seconds

4) ANITA NALL in the ***stoke...could be a bit hard considering the Aussie
girls are there..and don't forget SOUTH AFRICA's penelope..can't remember her
surname..:)

Janne
Abo Akademi University, Turku, Finland

snip

: Dolan beat Sievenin easily in Rome.  This one looks good for a
: US gold, and maybe a bronze, with Eric Namesnick

That was in  Rome... I read that Dolan is _13 seconds_ behind Sievinen
this year (that was in the 400IM, I think). So gold is very much possible
for Finland.Or I may well be a victim of the Finnish sportspropaganda ;) ;)

*clip clip*

: Kevin

Best wishes (may the best man win),

--
Tarja Pennanen

Just my 0.02

Don

Don Haut
Molecular Microbiology and Immunology
University of Missouri-Columbia

314-882-3171

Let's not forget how prior to the Barcelona Olympic Games the American
men were outright bashed by the media. In all, the American men only won
one lesss medal than the highly praised women's team.

Your assessment may have merit, yet let's not forget that Americans
always rise for the occasion when it comes to the Olympic Games and I'll
be very surprised if only eight 8 golds are won at Atlanta.

Let's also remember that MOST experts discount anything that the Chinese
men (oops, women) do, due to their programmatic use of steroids.

LAstly, it will be tough for any foreign swimmer to get up against any
American contender and take it from them in their home pool with 15,000
screaming fans.

Keep the faith, Americans will surprise.

Dave Berkoff
1988 and 1992 Olympian.

Make that 4 cents; I agree!   I WILL BOOOOOOO them if I get a chance.  As far
as I'm concerned, you just skip the Chinese women to see what the placings
REALLY are.  I hope you are wrong; but, I think you are right.  Sorry if I
have contributed to another flame war but they have earned their current
reputation.

Doug Gilliam

Don

Don Haut
Molecular Microbiology and Immunology
University of Missouri-Columbia

314-882-3171

It looks as if our own supposedly educated Australain citizens are incapable
of distinguishing between the USA and the Canadian/USA/South American
landmass continent otherwise known as the American continent.

USA: feel good about yourself.  Canada and South America: my apoligies

John

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-to the stars and stripes guy from ***ia, the final rank of the 94
worlds 400 IM males:

4.12.30 Tom Dolan (USA) [WR]
4.13.29 Sievinen (FIN)
4.15.69 Namesnik (USA)
4.17.93 Mijden (CAN)
4.19.48 Malinski (POL)
4.20.03 Sacchi (ITA)
4.21.38 Bryant (AUS)
4.22.97 Seibt (GER)

and ask him if sievinen beated dolan of 99 hundreds of seconds would
he define it an *easy* win. what about namesnik 2.40 seconds behind?
was it lapped?

-to the finnish friend, that the fact sievinen is going so fast now may
have two meanings:

1-he is mistaking the training schedule (not likely since his
experience).

2-since i don't think he can do those times not being tapered, i am
wondering if he is trying to have a peak now for then having a short
"break" before the most important workouts for atlanta.
is he doing a long-term schedule for atlanta or he is *a kind of*
splitting in two the season?

there should be an update to the above sievinen results: his likely
world record in the 100 IM in malmoe : 53''10 (prev. 53''78-sievinen).

in spite of this, i still consider dolan favorite for this race, 'cause
the awasome improvement he showed to be capable in rome, BUT only if
he will get in atlanta with a better form than in rome. one hundred
behind i put sievinen that, if he will count too much on his short course
results (although astonishing), might also loose (i.e. get 2nd).
finally namesnik shouldn't have any problem to get the third place.

i strongly believe this to be the only chance for dolan to get a gold
in an individual race, but as i wrote he is very unluck to have to fight
for it with sievinen.

a last recommendation to european posters: beware of posting swim
results in *meter* races and pretending to create e***ment....:-)
maybe you can try with "2 seconds for a 400 IM medley"

regards

s. borghesi

As for predictions, and I know some don't like them, I think a 4:10.5 will
win the 400 IM in Atlanta.  As to who will swim that fast, I'm not sure.

John