January 1 Avalanche Forecast - Happy New Year Everybody

January 1 Avalanche Forecast - Happy New Year Everybody

Post by D War » Sat, 03 Jan 2009 04:07:29

As you can read, it is still far too dangerous to be out there playing.
Stay home, keep warm with good friends and enjoy the holidays.  Don't risk
your life or that of others by venturing out into the backcountry this
weekend.  It is just too unstable....

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South Coast
Avalanche Forecast  Date/Time issued:
Valid until:
Next Scheduled Update:  Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 4:00 PM
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Thursday, January 01, 2009

---------- Sea-to-Sky ----------
  Thursday Friday Saturday
Alpine 4 - HIGH 4 - HIGH 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Treeline 4 - HIGH 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Below Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
---------- Duffy Lake & Inland Areas ----------
  Thursday Friday Saturday
Alpine 4 - HIGH 4 - HIGH 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Treeline 4 - HIGH 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Below Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE

Confidence: Fair. There is uncertainty about the track and extent of the
system on Thursday.

Primary Concerns:
Persistent Slab: Loading by new snow and wind may overload persistent weak
layers of sugary facets and a facet/crust combo that is down 50-70cm Inland
and 60-120cm near the Coast.

Storm Snow: Storm snow continues to accumulate and add load to a generally
weak snowpack.

Wind Slab: Moderate to strong S-SW winds will create soft and hard windslabs
on exposed lee and cross-loaded slopes at treeline and above.

Special Message:   Backcountry travel is not recommended unless you are
skilled and experienced in assessing avalanche conditions. It is a good time
to enjoy the new snow in-bounds at a ski area or on simple, low-angle slopes
or trails if you are sledding. Please check back for daily updates
throughout the holidays.

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Travel Advisory   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
A strong frontal system should deliver another bout of heavy snow and strong
winds on Thursday. Continued loading by new snow and wind, coupled with a
complex and weak snowpack, are driving the HIGH avalanche danger rating this
week. I have heard some avalanche professionals say that conditions are
"getting pretty scary" and they are tiptoeing around and avoiding avalanche
terrain altogether. This is very good advice. If you do decide to go out,
your safest option is to stick to simple, low-angle terrain in the trees
that is not threatened by overhead avalanche paths or runouts. It is
increasingly possible for large avalanches to be running full path. Avoid
large open slopes, steep convex rolls, and shallow rocky terrain where
triggering an avalanche is likely. Also, keep in mind that, due to the
presence of persistent weak layers, the conditions will not improve as
quickly as we are used to on the coast. Don't let the fresh snow and brief
periods of sunshine lure you into typical big slopes and steep chutes.

Avalanche Activity   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
Numerous natural and skier-triggered avalanches were reported throughout the
region on Tuesday. Most avalanches were size 1-2, some failed on the
interface of more dense new snow and previous low-density snow, and some
failed on, or stepped down to, the December 6 facet/crust combo. A skier
near Paul Ridge in Garibaldi Provincial Park intentionally triggered an
avalanche that was large enough to bury or kill a person. It failed on a
surface hoar layer that is down approximately 75cm. Strong winds are
reloading slopes that previously released.

Snowpack   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
An additional 20-30cm of new snow has fallen under continued strong
southerly winds, bringing the total snowfall of the past few days to
60-80cm. The snow surface in exposed terrain is a variety of hard and soft
windslabs, wind crusts, and sastrugi. The new snow is resulting in an
upside-down feel to the snowpack - meaning there is heavier dense snow on
top of previous cold low-density snow and sugary facetted snow. The early
December crust, down approximately 50-70cm Inland and 60-120cm near the
Coast, is still producing easy to moderate "pops or drops" shears in
stability tests.

Weather   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
An approaching low-pressure system should bring snow and moderate winds
beginning overnight. 20-35cm of snow is expected by Thursday night,
accompanied by moderate S-SW winds. The freezing level could briefly rise to
800m near the coast on Thursday morning. We should see a mix of sun and
cloud on Friday. A weak front should bring flurries on Saturday followed by
a more intense system and heavier snowfall on Sunday. The freezing level
should remain at valley bottom for most areas through the weekend.

View Avalanche Observation Summary

Issued by:Peter Marshall

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may
exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are
intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of
avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in
determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always
include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision
to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to
different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer
for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is
obtained from a variety of sources, including various government agencies
and private companies that participate in an industry-wide daily information
exchange program. These contributors provide data, resources, and funding
without which the Canadian Avalanche Centre could not provide this avalanche
information.
Avalanche information for other regions in western Canada is available
toll-free at 1-800-667-1105 or online at www.avalanche.ca

  This forecast sponsored by:

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North Columbia
Avalanche Forecast  Date/Time issued:
Valid until:
Next Scheduled Update:  Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 6:00 PM
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Thursday, January 01, 2009

---------- Cariboos ----------
  Thursday Friday Saturday
Alpine 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Below Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
---------- Monashees & Selkirks ----------
  Thursday Friday Saturday
Alpine 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Below Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE

Confidence: Poor due to the limited amount of data from the region and
uncertainty in the timing and amount of new snowfall, wind, and warming.
Primary Concerns:
Wind Slab: Alpine and open treeline areas may have deeper pillows of
cohesive wind deposited snow on downwind and crossloaded slopes (typically
North through East aspects).
Storm Snow: Continued new snow could overload the weak snowpack in many
places.
Persistent Slab: Persistent facet/crust combinations within the snowpack
give the possibility for small avalanches to step down to deeper layers if
triggered by storm loading, or by backcountry travellers.

Special Message:   We're in a tricky period where new snow and wind continue
to load a weak snowpack and it's difficult to predict when natural avalanche
activity will start to happen. Thursday's danger ratings reflect forecast
tapering of snow and wind through Wednesday afternoon. If local conditions
differ, with moderate snow or strong winds continuing longer than
anticipated, raise the alpine and treeline ratings to HIGH. Keep checking
back for daily updates through the holiday period.

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Travel Advisory   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Wed, Dec 31

If you observe surface slab conditions, the potential for triggering an
avalanche will dramatically increase, as will the consequences if an
avalanche is triggered. If you don't have avalanche education and experience
assessing local snow conditions, consider staying in simple, low angle
terrain. Wind effect on north through east aspects, increased loading by new
snow and warmer temperatures are all factors that will contribute to slab
formation - extra caution is warranted if you observe even one of these
factors. Convex rolls, the downwind side of ridges and cross loaded slopes
are likely trigger points which should be avoided. Snow and wind continue to
load a snowpack which is close to failure, so cautious terrain choices are
in order. Be certain to avoid lingering in avalanche paths and runouts.
Cracking, whumpfing and recent avalanche activity are signs telling you that
conditions are deteriorating.

Avalanche Activity   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Wed, Dec 31

Reports of recent avalanche activity are few, but a cycle of small natural
avalanches in the Revelstoke area Tuesday indicates that continued loading
is starting to catch up to the strength of the snowpack. Isolated reports of
small natural and human triggered slab avalanches also suggest that things
are changing. As the new storm snow gains cohesion and slabs form, the
potential for propagation and larger avalanches will increase.

Snowpack   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Wed, Dec 31
Recent storm snow, 30-60 cm in the Cariboos and Monashees and up to 60-80 cm
in the Selkirks, sits above a colder, faceted (sugary) lower snowpack. Wind
transport and settlement of the new snow are now creating soft slabs at
treeline and in the alpine. Crust layers surrounded by weak, sugary facets
are buried in the snowpack, approximately 50 - 120 cm below the snow
surface. With additional load, these layers could wake up, creating the
potential for large avalanches.
Weather   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Wed, Dec 31

Temperatures are forecast to remain cool, between -5 and -13 through the
next couple of days. Moderate snow with strong to extreme westerly winds
Wednesday morning should taper to lingering flurries. Expect 5-10 cm through
the day. Another Pacific system is forecast arrive early Thursday, bringing
an additional 5-10 cm. Winds are expected to decrease slightly, remaining
moderate to strong from the west. Light precipitation should persist through
Friday, with a series of storms bringing more snow over the weekend.

View Avalanche Observation Summary

Issued by:Laura Bakermans

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may
exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are
intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of
avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in
determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always
include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision
to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to
different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer
for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is
obtained from a variety of sources, including various government agencies
and private companies that participate in an industry-wide daily information
exchange program. These contributors provide data, resources, and funding
without which the Canadian Avalanche Centre could not provide this avalanche
information.
Avalanche information for other regions in western Canada is available
toll-free at 1-800-667-1105 or online at www.avalanche.ca

  This forecast sponsored by:

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South Columbia
Avalanche Forecast  Date/Time issued:
Valid until:
Next Scheduled Update:  Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 6:00 PM
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Thursday, January 01, 2009

---------- S. Selkirks & S. Monashees ----------
  Thursday Friday Saturday
Alpine 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 2 - MODERATE
Below Treeline 2 - MODERATE 2 - MODERATE 2 - MODERATE
---------- Purcells ----------
  Thursday Friday Saturday
Alpine 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 2 - MODERATE
Below Treeline 2 - MODERATE 2 - MODERATE 2 - MODERATE

Confidence: Fair.
Primary Concerns:
Wind Slab: Strong winds continue to blow snow forming unstable windslabs.
Persistent Slab: A cohesive slab of snow is forming over the weak faceted
snow.

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Travel Advisory   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
Strong winds are redistributing snow down to treeline elevations forming a
slab that overlies the weak snow that formed during the cold snap in
December. We feel that on Thursday and Friday there is a good chance of
triggering an avalanche at alpine and treeline elevations in steeper
terrain. Natural avalanches are also possible, so be cognitive of terrain
above you.
Avalanche Activity   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
We suspect that the strong winds are wreaking havoc Wednesday evening in the
mountains and are causing natural avalanches to occur. As the wind dies off,
the naturals will probably as well, but triggering good sized avalanches
will remain a concern for the next few days.
Snowpack   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
Between 40 cm and 100 cm overlies the faceted layer of snow buried around
Christmas at treeline. This snow is turning into a cohesive slab with the
help of the wind.
Weather   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
Fast moving storms will continue to brush the region bringing periods of
snow and moderate winds through Friday. On Thursday expect 5 cm - 10cm with
moderate westerly winds along ridgelines. Friday may bring light snow with
moderate westerly winds.
View Avalanche Observation Summary

Issued by:Greg Johnson

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may
exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are
intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of
avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in
determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always
include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision
to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to
different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer
for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is
obtained from a variety of sources, including various government agencies
and private companies that participate in an industry-wide daily information
exchange program. These contributors provide data, resources, and funding
without which the Canadian Avalanche Centre could not provide this avalanche
information.
Avalanche information for other regions in western Canada is available
toll-free at 1-800-667-1105 or online at www.avalanche.ca

  This forecast sponsored by:

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Kootenay Boundary
Avalanche Forecast  Date/Time issued:
Valid until:
Next Scheduled Update:  Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 6:00 PM
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Thursday, January 01, 2009

---------- Kootenay Boundary ----------
  Thursday Friday Saturday
Alpine 3 - CONSIDERABLE 4 - HIGH 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 4 - HIGH 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Below Treeline 2 - MODERATE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE

Confidence: Fair.
Primary Concerns:
Wind Slab: Strong westerly winds continue to blow snow forming windslabs at
treeline and in the alpine.
Persistent Slab: Weak snow that formed during the December cold snap is
being loaded by wind drifts and additional snowfall.

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Travel Advisory   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
Strong westerly wind and snow continue to build layers of wind slabs and
load the weak sugary snow that formed during the December cold snap. We are
getting closer to observing the balance tip, a time period of numerous snow
slides. The balance may tip on Friday. Choose terrain wisely. Go to places
that give you lots of low risk options. Look for terrain that you know well
and has lots of low risk options.
Avalanche Activity   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
Both human triggered and natural avalanche activity is expected to increase
through Friday, with continued strong winds and snow. Natural avalanche
activity may start on Thursday, so be aware of rapidly changing conditions.
Some of these avalanches will probably be large and run their full extent.
Also recognize some of these slides may be triggered from a distance away.
Keep an eye on the terrain above you.

Snowpack   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
Have a look into the snow and get a feel for yourself. Approximately 40-60cm
of recent snow sits on 90-100cm of old weak sugary faceted snow. Crusts
exist within the faceted snow. A layer of surface hoar was reported, buried
about 70cm deep on north and east aspects near Nelson.
Weather   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
Southern British Columbia is in the grasp of a series of fast moving storms,
bringing snow, wind and fluctuating freezing levels. A period of zonal flow.
The first wave of weather may produce 15-20cm near the US border and bring
strong westerly winds Thursday morning. Models are struggling to be
consistent and uncertainty exists regarding the second low pressure centre
Thursday night and into Friday morning. An additional 20-30cm may fall with
this storm. The freezing level may briefly spike to 1400m. Winds will remain
strong from the west.
View Avalanche Observation Summary

Issued by:Greg Johnson

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may
exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are
intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of
avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in
determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always
include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision
to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to
different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer
for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is
obtained from a variety of sources, including various government agencies
and private companies that participate in an industry-wide daily information
exchange program. These contributors provide data, resources, and funding
without which the Canadian Avalanche Centre could not provide this avalanche
information.
Avalanche information for other regions in western Canada is available
toll-free at 1-800-667-1105 or online at www.avalanche.ca

  This forecast sponsored by:

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South Rockies
Avalanche Forecast  Date/Time issued:
Valid until:
Next Scheduled Update:  Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 6:00 PM
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Thursday, January 01, 2009

---------- Fernie - Lizard Range ----------
  Thursday Friday Saturday
Alpine 4 - HIGH 4 - HIGH 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Treeline 4 - HIGH 4 - HIGH 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Below Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 4 - HIGH 3 - CONSIDERABLE
---------- Elk Valley & Crowsnest Pass ----------
  Thursday Friday Saturday
Alpine 4 - HIGH 4 - HIGH 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Treeline 4 - HIGH 4 - HIGH 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Below Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 4 - HIGH 3 - CONSIDERABLE

Confidence: Good.
Primary Concerns:
Wind Slab: Strong to extreme winds are forming windslabs at treeline and in
the alpine.
Persistent Slab: Weak sugary snow the makes up the base of the snowpack
remains very weak. Avalanches continue to occur within this snow.

Special Message:   Happy New Year!

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Travel Advisory   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
Two fast moving storms are forecast to bring strong winds and periods of
heavy snow amplifying the avalanche danger to High. The wind will continue
to blow snow depositing it into windslabs, which will quickly load already
unstable slopes. Avalanches are likely. We recommend avoiding all avalanche
terrain.
Avalanche Activity   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
On Wednesday a skier accidentally triggered small avalanche at 1300m on an
east aspect near Fernie. The snowpack was 50cm deep where the slide was
triggered. An observer in the Crowsnest Pass area ski cut an avalanche and
got caught and only dragged about 1ft downhill. It was a size 2.
On Tuesday, a snowmobiler triggered an avalanche near Castle Mountain
burying his snowmobile and probably taking him for a ride. A close call. To
view photos of the event, click here. More avalanches were triggered with
explosives up to size 2 in the Fernie area.
On Monday, explosives triggered numerous avalanches to size 3 near Fernie
and Castle Mountain. Some of these avalanches were in relatively dense trees
at treeline and were up to 100cm deep.
On Sunday, a series of large avalanches killed 8 people at Harvey Pass
southeast of Fernie. Numerous natural avalanches to size 3 were also
reported that day.
On Saturday, a large size 3 avalanche was triggered by people digging a snow
profile.

Snowpack   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
A slab of snow, approximately 80cm thick, sits on top of very weak sugary
snow at treeline and in the alpine. A crust exists within the sugary faceted
snow above about 1500m in elevation. At treeline and above, winds have
redistributed the snow. Cornices remain relatively small for this time of
year, however strong winds will build these cornices. Keep in mind even if a
small chunk breaks off it may be enough to trigger a large avalanche.
Weather   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
Strong to extreme winds and snowfall is forecast through Friday. Fernie may
see upwards of 40cm total snowfall. Outlying areas may see 30cm.
View Avalanche Observation Summary

Issued by:Greg Johnson

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may
exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are
intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of
avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in
determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always
include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision
to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to
different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer
for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is
obtained from a variety of sources, including various government agencies
and private companies that participate in an industry-wide daily information
exchange program. These contributors provide data, resources, and funding
without which the Canadian Avalanche Centre could not provide this avalanche
information.
Avalanche information for other regions in western Canada is available
toll-free at 1-800-667-1105 or online at www.avalanche.ca

  This report is produced by the North Shore Avalanche Advisory Group

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North Shore
Avalanche Forecast  Date/Time issued:
Valid until:
Next Scheduled Update:  Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 3:00 PM
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Thursday, January 01, 2009

---------- North Shore ----------
  Thursday Friday Saturday
Alpine ~ ~ ~
Treeline 4 - HIGH 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Below Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 2 - MODERATE

Confidence: Poor. There is significant uncertainty about the track and
extent of the system(s) that is forecast for Thursday.

Primary Concerns:
Storm Snow: Continued loading by new snow and wind could result in new storm
snow instabilities that may be susceptible to triggering naturally or by the
weight of a person.

Wind Slab: Very strong southerly winds have created areas of hard and soft
windslabs on exposed slopes at all elevations and aspects.

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Travel Advisory:   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
A strong frontal system should deliver another bout of heavy snow and strong
winds on Thursday. There is uncertainty about the track and extent of this
system. If we receive greater amounts of snow (25+cm) then we should expect
the avalanche danger to reach HIGH. Pay close attention to obvious clues of
instability that will help you assess the current conditions. If you see
signs of recent avalanche activity, whumpfing or cracking, and significant
loading by new snow and wind, then you should stick to simple, low-angle
terrain. Avoid steep convex rolls, unsupported slopes, and steep open
slopes, especially where deep pockets of wind-blown snow have been
deposited. Conditions should gradually improve on Friday, but don't let the
sunshine and fresh snow entice you to push into bigger terrain too quickly.
Give the new snow a chance to settle.

Avalanche Activity:   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
There are no reports of new avalanches on the North Shore; however, a report
from an area in the southern end of Garibaldi Provincial Park is a good
indicator of potential for avalanches. A skier on a NE aspect near ridge top
intentionally triggered an avalanche that was large enough to bury or kill a
person. This avalanche released on a thin layer of feathery surface hoar,
down approximately 80cm. This area has a very similar snowpack structure to
the North Shore, and similar avalanches are possible on steep open slopes at
higher elevations.

Snowpack:   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
Around 75cm of snow has fallen during recent storms. This brings the average
snowpack depth to approximately 180cm. Consistent strong SE-W winds have
created areas of hard and soft windslabs and wind-pressed snow in all
exposed terrain. A feathery surface hoar layer, down 70-80cm, is still
producing moderate to hard "pops" shears. It may be possible for a small
avalanche to step-down to this layer in smooth open slopes. The deep
facet/crust combo is approximately 30cm above the ground and is only a
concern in areas with very smooth underlying ground (grass, rock slab).

Weather:   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Thu, Jan 1
An approaching low-pressure system should bring snow and strong winds
beginning overnight. 25-40cm of snow is expected by Thursday night,
accompanied by strong S-SW winds. The freezing level could briefly rise to
800m on Thursday morning. We should see a mix of sun and cloud on Friday. A
weak front should bring flurries on Saturday followed by a more intense
system and heavier snowfall on Sunday. The freezing level should hover
around 300-500m from Friday to Sunday.

View Avalanche Observation Summary

Prepared by:Peter Marshall

Reporting Area: The North Shore Mountains between Mount Seymour Provincial
Park in the east and Cypress Provincial Park in the west, extending north
one kilometre past the municipal boundaries of North & West Vancouver
Avalanche information for other regions in western Canada is available
toll-free at 1-800-667-1105 or online at www.avalanche.ca

  This forecast sponsored by:

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Northwest - BC
Avalanche Forecast  Date/Time issued:
Valid until:
Next Scheduled Update:  Wednesday, December 31, 2008 at 6:00 PM
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Thursday, January 01, 2009

---------- Terrace & Coastal Areas ----------
  Thursday Friday Saturday
Alpine 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Below Treeline 2 - MODERATE 2 - MODERATE 2 - MODERATE
---------- Smithers & Interior Sections ----------
  Thursday Friday Saturday
Alpine 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE
Below Treeline 2 - MODERATE 2 - MODERATE 2 - MODERATE

Confidence: Fair. We have limited information from alpine elevations. New
snow amounts and the extent of wind effect are variable, and there is
uncertainty in the timing and amount of new snowfall.
Primary Concerns:
Persistent Slab: New storm snow may not bond well to the variety of facets,
crusts and hard slabs that made up the old snow surface.

Special Message:   Check back for daily updates during the holiday period.

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Travel Advisory:   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Wed, Dec 31

The recent storm snow is slowly settling, and winds have created hard and
soft slabs in some alpine and open treeline areas. These variable slabs sit
above a lower snowpack which includes a mixed bag of old slabs and weak
sugary facets. Be aware that there is a lot of variability in snowpack
structure and stability, meaning higher uncertainty of triggering an
avalanche in steep terrain. Use caution if you plan to ride steep slopes -
think about the consequences if you were to trigger an avalanche.

Avalanche Activity:   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Wed, Dec 31
Limited local observations suggest little recent natural avalanche activity.
However, the probability of human-triggered avalanches remains, with soft
and hard slabs observed in the alpine and at open treeline areas.
Snowpack:   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Wed, Dec 31
Storm snow accumulations since Christmas total approximately 30 cm near
Smithers and 40-60 cm in the Terrace and Stewart areas. The snow was
generally light and unconsolidated when deposited, but it has started to
settle and windslabs formed in the alpine and in open treeline areas. The
bond between the storm snow and the previous snow surface, which included
windslabs, facets and surface hoar, was reactive in stability tests on
Sunday. A layer of loose, sugary facets sits above the Dec. 4 crust deeper
in the snowpack. There is substantial variation in the depth of this crust
layer due to wind scouring and snow re-distribution by previous arctic
outflow winds; expect to find it just below the recent storm snow on north
facing slopes and deeper on south facing slopes.
Weather:   Issued: Wed, Dec 31 Next Scheduled Update: Wed, Dec 31
Flurries on Wednesday should bring 10-15 cm new snow with moderate to strong
W winds. Outflow conditions are expected to keep Thursday relatively dry and
cold. Winds are forecast to remain moderate from the W-SW, but the
possibility of stronger outflow winds remains. Flurries return on Friday.
View Avalanche Observation Summary

Issued by:Laura Bakermans

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may
exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are
intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of
avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in
determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always
include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision
to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to
different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer
for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is
obtained from a variety of sources, including various government agencies
and private companies that participate in an industry-wide daily information
exchange program. These contributors provide data, resources, and funding
without which the Canadian Avalanche Centre could not provide this avalanche
information.
Avalanche information for other regions in western Canada is available
toll-free at 1-800-667-1105 or online at www.avalanche.ca

Glacier National Park

Issued:
 Wednesday, December 31, 2008   08:00

Valid Until:
 Until Further Notice

Bulletin Area:
 This bulletin covers the areas adjacent to the Trans Canada Highway
corridor in Glacier National Park and the drainages directly accessed from
this corridor.

Large Areas of Glacier National Park Are CLOSED For Avalanche Control Using
EXPLOSIVES For access information visit the Rogers Pass Discovery Centre

Danger Rating: Wednesday Thursday  Friday
 Alpine 3-Considerable  4-High  3-Considerable
 Treeline 3-Considerable  4-High  3-Considerable
 Below Treeline 3-Considerable  3-Considerable  3-Considerable

Avalanche Danger Rating Descriptions

Synopsis:

Avalanche danger is again on the rise and is likely to reach high levels
later today!  Overnight, anticipated heavy snow did not materialize however
at this early hour on New Years Eve, snowfall intensity is picking up as are
the winds speeds coming from the south.  Approximately 60cm of new snow has
fallen since the storm of the past weekend.  Initially very loose and
unconsolidated, additional load and strong winds that occurred yesterday
have created soft slab conditions in the uppermost layers of new snow.  At
the interface between the old facetted snow surface lies a very low density
layer of large stellar crystals which may become a failure layer as the
upper slab consolidates.   Because this storm snow sits on top of a weak
facetted snow surface, avalanches can be expected to be far reaching and can
run to the end of normal runouts.    Conservative terrain choices are
recommended especially on north and east aspects.  Open slopes and wind
affected areas need to be approached with extreme caution today as soft slab
formation takes hold.

Yesterday's ensemble of snowpack tests confirmed a weak layer within the
recent storm snow with critical values observed on tilt and compression
tests.  Moderate-Hard results were seen on a 2100m North aspect, failing
down 40cm on the storm snow interface.  Technician were noting shooting
cracks on the descent from the area.  This and mixed or no results from
another test on a 1900 meter SE aspect suggest that conditions for human
triggering of this 40-60cm surface slab are now beginning to show.

The buried crusts down approximately 100cm are giving variable results in
tests and may become more of a concern with additional loading. These layers
are believed to be difficult for skiers to trigger, however if initiated
could result in a serious avalanche. Thin and rocky snowpack areas are the
most likely points where triggering could occur, particularly at or near
treeline elevations.

Caution should also be exercised at low elevations where many natural
hazards are now hidden under light density new snow.

Link to Recent Profiles

Avalanche Activity:
 Yesterday's wind event produce a few natural avalanche, generally size 2's
from steep north aspects  although a more significant size 3 occured form a
high alpine Eas aspect.   Natural activity is expected to begin later today
given the current rise in southerly winds.

Wind loading have created a soft slab at treeline and alpine elevations.
Caution should be exercised near ridge crests and on lee features.  Rapid
settlement of the storm snow has been observed which will aid in the
formation of soft slabs especially on north and east aspects where winds
have redistributed the recent snowfall.  On many lee and open slopes at
treeline and above, easily triggered soft slab avalanches large enough to
bury a person are probable.

Outlook:
 A series of weather systems is expected for the forecast period, the first
of which is on the doorstep at this moment.   This system is expected to
bring 5 to 10cm of snowfall today combined with strong wouth winds.  Another
wave is expected for Thursday bringing moderate to heavy snowfall amounts
and again with strong winds.  Friday brings a brief respite before another
upper low pressure cell swings down from the Gulf of Alaska.

Avalanche danger will remain elevated through the entire forecast period.

Travel Conditions:
 Heavy trailbreaking with deep ski penetrations in light density new snow.
Some areas of upside down snow with double penetration.  Downhill skiing
involves a degree of plowing. At very low elevations the recent snowfall has
lightly covered buried rocks and other obstacles.    JBM

Past 24 hour weather:  Rogers Pass (1315m)  Mt. Fidelity (1905m)
Maximum (?C)  -5.5 -10.0
Minimum (?C)  -11.0 -12.0
Snowfall (cm)  6 5
Precipitation (mm)  4.2 4.1
Snowpack (cm)  116 208
Wind speed  Moderate (26-40 km/h) Light (1-25 km/h)
Ridgetop wind direction  S S

FOR MORE DETAILS:

Warden Office: (250) 814-5202
Emergency: 1-877-852-3100
24 Hours Recorded Message: (250) 837-6867
Related Link: http://www.avalanche.ca/

Important Disclaimer Information

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Banff, Yoho and Kootenay National Parks

Issued:
 Wednesday, December 31, 2008   14:34

Valid Until:
 Thursday, January 1, 2009   16:00

Bulletin Area:
 This forecast covers the east and west sides of the Continental Divide from
the Wapta Icefields area in the north to the Sunshine area in the south. It
also includes the Main Range area from Lake Louise to Bow Summit.

Danger Rating: Wednesday Thursday  Friday
 Alpine 3-Considerable  3-Considerable  3-Considerable
 Treeline 3-Considerable  3-Considerable  3-Considerable
 Below Treeline 2-Moderate  2-Moderate  2-Moderate

Avalanche Danger Rating Descriptions

Synopsis:
 Anywhere from 5 to 10 cm of storm snow has fallen across the Divide in the
past 24 hours. There was evidence of snow transport along ridge tops today,
but this new load was not enough to make the difference and start much
natural avalanche activity.

Ski touring and profiles in Wolverine Valley around Lake Louise produced
localized cracking around skis, but few conclusive tests from the pit. At
least at treeline, the upper portion of the snowpack was not cohesive enough
to produce the results expected from such a weak facetted base.

Backcountry users have to remember we are in a more typical Rockies snowpack
this year, with persistent weaknesses and wild variability in snow coverage.
Watch for hard slabs, especially in shallow snowpack areas where it will be
easier to find the "sweet spot" and trigger an avalanche.

We downgraded the avalanche danger rating from HIGH to Considerable for
January 1st because most forecasts have backed off on their snow fall
predictions.

Avalanche Activity:
 No new activity was seen today.

Outlook:
 The next big storm track should hit the interior of BC at the end of the
weekend. The Rockies will pick up the crumbs again with 15 cm being
optimistic at this point. Lets hope this storm has more punch than predicted
and some good stuff leftover for our part of the world.

Considering our facetted snowpack, the November 2nd crust, recent winds and
some storm snow we will keep the avalanche danger at Considerable for the
next few days.

Travel Conditions:
 Okay, I know it's the last day of 2008 and still early in the ski season,
but skiing past patches of grass today wasn't  all that inspiring. Think
light on your skis and boards and hope that 2009 brings more of what we
really need... more snow!

Happy New Year from your Parks Canada forecasting crew in Banff, Yoho and
Kootenay National Parks. MH,BS

Past 24 hour weather:  Bow Summit (2010m and 2925m)  Sunshine (2195m and
2620m)  North Kootenay (1985m and 2405m)
Maximum (?C)  -9 -11 -11
Minimum (?C)  -13 -15 -15
Snowfall (cm)  1 5 6
Precipitation (mm)
Snowpack (cm)  71 103 118
Wind speed  Light (1-25 km/h) Moderate (26-40 km/h) Moderate (26-40 km/h)
Ridgetop wind direction  SW W SW

FOR MORE DETAILS:

Warden Office: (403) 762-1470
Emergency: 403 762 4506
24 Hours Recorded Message: 1-800-667-1105
Related Link: http://www.avalanche.ca/

Important Disclaimer Information

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jasper National Park

Issued:
 Wednesday, December 31, 2008   15:48

Valid Until:
 Thursday, January 1, 2009   16:30

Bulletin Area:
 The forecast area covers the Continental Divide, eastwards to the Maligne
Lake drainage and from Saskatchewan River Crossing in the south to Hwy 16 in
the north.

Danger Rating: Wednesday Thursday  Friday
 Alpine 3-Considerable  3-Considerable  3-Considerable
 Treeline 3-Considerable  3-Considerable  3-Considerable
 Below Treeline 2-Moderate  2-Moderate  2-Moderate

Avalanche Danger Rating Descriptions

Synopsis:
 Old windslabs in the alpine may be triggered in areas of shallow snow
depths or where the snowpack is highly facetted. Stability tests in the
icefields area produced easy to moderate results at treeline for a soft slab
of storm snow on a NE aspect. Tests indicated that an avalanche could step
down to deeper instabilities. At treeline, the snowpack makes a transition
to unsupportive facets although windslabs are common even in small openings.
Small loose snow avalanches are likely in steep, rocky areas and may be a
concern to ice climbers.

Settlements and cracking were very common at treeline in the Bald hills
area. Shallow areas were settling on depth hoar at the base of the snowpack
and were propagating quite far.

Avalanche Activity:
 No new avalanches were observed today due to poor visibility. Only 10% of
the forecast area was observed.

Outlook:
 Flurries with light snowfall is forecast through to the weekend when
another system "may" bring us a bit more snow.  Keep in mind that the weekly
accumulation is starting to add up to threshold values for natural avalanche
activity. The avalanche danger is not expected to increase unless lots of
snow  or strong winds arrive.

Travel Conditions:
 The alpine snowpack ranges from 0cm to over 200cm and has a mix of bare
rock with hard slabs and soft slabs mixed in. At treeline and below, soft
slabs combined with facets below make for variable touring and inconsistent
turns. ME

0800 weather:  Parker Ridge (2010m and 2350m)  Marmot Basin (1985m and
2360m)
Maximum (?C)  -10.5 -10.5
Minimum (?C)  -14 -14
Snowfall (cm)  6 1
Precipitation (mm)  ~
Snowpack (cm)  91 70
Wind speed  Moderate (26-40 km/h) Moderate (26-40 km/h)
Ridgetop wind direction  SW SW

FOR MORE DETAILS:

Warden Office: (780) 852-6155
Emergency: 1-877-852-3100
24 Hours Recorded Message: (780) 852-6176
Related Link: http://www.avalanche.ca/

Important Disclaimer Information

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Waterton Lakes National Park

Issued:
 Tuesday, December 30, 2008   16:36

Valid Until:
 Thursday, January 1, 2009   16:00

Bulletin Area:
 This bulletin covers Waterton Lakes National Park, including the
Continental Divide area.

Danger Rating: Tuesday  Wednesday Thursday
 Alpine 3-Considerable  3-Considerable  3-Considerable
 Treeline 3-Considerable  3-Considerable  3-Considerable
 Below Treeline 2-Moderate  2-Moderate  2-Moderate

Avalanche Danger Rating Descriptions

Synopsis:
 The forecast area has received about 35cm of snow in the past 72 hours and
with it moderate to strong south westerly winds. North and east facing lee
slopes continue to build soft slabs over the generally weak snowpack.
Avalanche activity and stability tests on Tuesday confirm the unstable
nature of the snowpack, both within the more recent storm snow, mid-pack AND
at the base of the snowpack. Numerous recent avalanches in Waterton and in
neighbouring areas have pulled out right to ground and travelled full path.
The consequences of being involved in an avalanche given the current hazard
is grim. Skiers and boarders must use very conservative route selection and
avoid avalanche terrain until the present concerns settle out. This may not
be any time soon.

Avalanche Activity:
 Though the active cycle from the past weekend has moderated one moderate
sized avalanche occurred sometime Tuesday high on Forum Ridge just south of
a popular ski line. Sluffs were occurring through out the day Tuesday from
steep north and east facing terrain.

Outlook:
 Another good shot of snow is forecast for late Thursday (15 - 20cms) with
continued moderate to strong westerly winds. If this amount of snow does
arrive natural avalanche activity will likely follow in higher elevation
north and easterly facing terrain. Travellers should be very cautious about
entering such terrain for the next few days as things are going to remain
touchy out there. The extra weight of a person or snowmobile could easily
trigger a slide. Best to avoid such areas until snow conditions and
avalanche danger improve.

Travel Conditions:
 Little Prairie now has a 63cm snowpack and above Summit Lake in our test we
measured 143cm. Ski penetration was just 25cm over a surprisingly supportive
midpack though stepping out of my skis I was up to my waist. We are starting
to see some good accumulation - we just have to be patient and travel very
conservative lines (stick to the trees on the north-easterly slopes well
away from avalanche terrain) until the avalanche danger improves. Stumps,
fallen trees and rocks are a hazard at lower to mid elevation. EK

Past 24 hour weather:  Little Prairie (1650m)
Maximum (?C)  -5
Minimum (?C)  -9.5
Snowfall (cm)  12
Precipitation (mm)
Snowpack (cm)  63
Wind speed  Moderate (26-40 km/h)
Ridgetop wind direction  SW

FOR MORE DETAILS:

Warden Office: (403) 859-5140
Emergency: (403) 859-2636
24 Hours Recorded Message: 1-800-667-1105
Related Link: http://www.avalanche.ca/

Important Disclaimer Information

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Backcountry Avalanche Report
Last Avalanche Report Entered On : Wednesday, December 31, 2008 5:32:00 PM

Report Valid For Period Starting : Thursday, January 01, 2009 until further
notice.

This report is for backcountry terrain only. Skiing conditions for facility
areas are not included in this report.
For current trail conditions please see our Trail Reports.

Avalanche Danger Scale Thursday Friday Saturday
Alpine Considerable Considerable Considerable
Treeline Considerable Considerable Considerable
Below Treeline Moderate Moderate Moderate

Discussion:

A few more centimetres of new snow fell on Tuesday night and over the course
of the day on Wednesday but through this period of snowfall there were
lengthy periods of strong to extreme SW winds.

There is some additional snowfall in the forecasts over the next few days
but amounts seem uncertain and if trends remain as they have been we should
not expect much.  It does seem likely that the SW winds will continue to be
an issue.  There has been upwards of 15cm snow at and above treeline over
the past few days.  New slabs have formed as a result and everywhere we look
these slabs are sitting on top of the weak facetted base that is becoming
increasingly susceptible to failure when load is added.  Open features at
treeline and in the alpine and gullies on lee aspects are all good spots to
avoid.

A few Size 1-2 natural and human triggered avalanches have occurred over the
past 24-48 hours.  In every case, they failed within the layers of facets in
the midpack. These same observations were made during a snow survey flight
on Tuesday where several test profiles displayed the same characteristics.
Overall, based on 30+ years worth of data, the current snowpack throughout
most of Kananaskis is currently at about 60% of historical values

Backcountry Travel Conditions: Ski conditions are still bordering on the
desperate with all the associated buried hazards.  Above treeline expect
more supportive travel but take conservative, lowered angled trips, both
from an avalanche perspective and for the preservation of your limbs.  Ice
climbers should be wary of hard slab lenses in alpine gullies and sluffing
out of steeper terrain.

To get a printer-friendly version of this current report, please Click Here.

Important Notice:
Snowpack structure and stability information is determined from field
analysis specific to snow study plot sites. Snowpack structure and stability
will vary as you travel throughout mountainous terrain. It is, therefore,
the responsibility of the backcountry traveller to be self-sufficient in
being able to perform self-rescue should you, the traveller, be involved in
an accident. Also, backcountry travellers are responsible for obtaining
their own information concerning current weather conditions, snow, winds,
snowfall, etc. and are responsible for educating themselves to the best
possible awareness level.

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