Scoring System and "Surprise" wins (not)

Scoring System and "Surprise" wins (not)

Post by Rose » Sun, 27 Nov 2005 19:37:16


I noticed that there didn't seem to be much movement in the top 3 from
the first round (short or compulsory) to the final in the 2005 Grand
Prix comeptitions so far, despite the fact that the new scoring system
is supposed to lend itself to big changes from the first program to the
last, so I reviewed the results and accumulated some data.  It seems to
me that just as with the old 6.0 system, if you want to win you'd
better be in the top 3 in the short; if you want to medal you'd better
be in the top 4 in the short; and few skaters move more than 2 places
up or down.

Out of 16 competitions (4 categories in 4 meets)

14 of the first round winners won the competition.

9 (slight majority) of those who were 2nd in the first round were 2nd
overall.

11 of those who were 2nd overall were 2nd or 1st in the first round. 11
of those who were 3rd overall were in the top 3 in the first round. (In
majority of comps, there was no movement upward to 2nd or to 3rd.)

8 of those who were 3rd overall were 3rd in the first round

In 10 of the 16 competitions, the top 3 in the first round were the top
3 overall.  In 9 of those 10, the order of the top 3 was identical.

Just one (1) of the 16 competitions had skaters jump more than one
place to get into the top 3 (SC men, 6th in short was first overall,
7th in short was 3rd overall.)

In three of the four ice dance comps, the top 3 in the compulsory were
identical to the top 3 overall. Same for pairs.

In 2 of the four women's comps, the top 3 in the short were identical
to the top 3 overall.

In just 1 of the four men's comps, the top 3 in the short were
identical to the top 3 overall.  It's interesting that the men's finals
are the most unpredictable. I wonder why.

 
 
 

Scoring System and "Surprise" wins (not)

Post by Leslie DesMartea » Mon, 28 Nov 2005 00:18:07

That is interesting- thanks for looking through the data.  While I think
that it can be easier as a theoretical matter for skaters to move up or
down in the new system, it all depends on how close they are after the
short program- if there's a large point differential, I think it's actually
harder.  We've seen circumstances in which skaters made a move that
wouldn't have been possible (Emanuel Sandhu), and circumstances in which
skaters would have won under the old system (Skate America two years ago, I
think- whenever it was that Weiss hung on for the win) and this year in the
women's event.  I also remember thinking that with the lead Irina Slutskaya
had after the short program in Cup of China, she would really have to bomb
the long program to lose (she didn't, of course, so it was a moot point-
but she had a very large lead).

I certainly understand that the final placement in either system would be
influenced by the short program- that is the point of having two programs,
after all.  I think the question comes down to whether the short program's
influence is properly weighted.  I guess I would lean towards saying that
COP has the potential to strike a better balance between short and long
than the ordinal system, just because it does allow relative quality of
performances into consideration (if six people skate very well in the short
program, they'll all still likely be in contention, but if only one person
skates even close to well, he/she has a big lead).  However, I can readily
believe that a skater's placement in the short program still may be
influencing the judges when it comes to the many subjective aspects of
marking the long program (I think Chris had done an analysis awhile back on
how little movement there was between warm-up groups under the old
system).  Of course, that is not to suggest that the top three in the short
program may not necessarily be the best three and deserving of the medals
in 1-2-3 order in the long program :)

As to why there is more likelihood for movement in the men's event, I'd
hazard a guess (and it is just a guess- I haven't looked at the points
distributions) that it would be because the men's scoring is so heavily
influenced by big-ticket, easily-missed items like quads, quad-triples,
triple axels and triple-triples.  More of the ladies are at close to the
same jumping level, especially with COP favoring triple-double-doubles over
triple-triples or triple axels, and it's easier to make up missing a
lower-scoring jump or two with strong footwork and spins than to make up
missing a higher-scoring jump or two.

Leslie

Quote:

> I noticed that there didn't seem to be much movement in the top 3 from
> the first round (short or compulsory) to the final in the 2005 Grand
> Prix comeptitions so far, despite the fact that the new scoring system
> is supposed to lend itself to big changes from the first program to the
> last, so I reviewed the results and accumulated some data.  It seems to
> me that just as with the old 6.0 system, if you want to win you'd
> better be in the top 3 in the short; if you want to medal you'd better
> be in the top 4 in the short; and few skaters move more than 2 places
> up or down.

> Out of 16 competitions (4 categories in 4 meets)

> 14 of the first round winners won the competition.

> 9 (slight majority) of those who were 2nd in the first round were 2nd
> overall.

> 11 of those who were 2nd overall were 2nd or 1st in the first round. 11
> of those who were 3rd overall were in the top 3 in the first round. (In
> majority of comps, there was no movement upward to 2nd or to 3rd.)

> 8 of those who were 3rd overall were 3rd in the first round

> In 10 of the 16 competitions, the top 3 in the first round were the top
> 3 overall.  In 9 of those 10, the order of the top 3 was identical.

> Just one (1) of the 16 competitions had skaters jump more than one
> place to get into the top 3 (SC men, 6th in short was first overall,
> 7th in short was 3rd overall.)

> In three of the four ice dance comps, the top 3 in the compulsory were
> identical to the top 3 overall. Same for pairs.

> In 2 of the four women's comps, the top 3 in the short were identical
> to the top 3 overall.

> In just 1 of the four men's comps, the top 3 in the short were
> identical to the top 3 overall.  It's interesting that the men's finals
> are the most unpredictable. I wonder why.

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