Frank Thomas & walks

Frank Thomas & walks

Post by White S » Wed, 27 Dec 1995 04:00:00


        I would be interested in hearing opinions/evaluations on Frank
Thomas's chances to set the record for most walks ever in the history of
baseball.  First of all, what is the record?? Second, what would be the
major determining factors to look for which would help/hurt his
chances???  Third, do people think Bonds has a better chance of amassing
more walks.  Also, I would be interested in evaluations of who will hit the
most homeruns in his career, Thomas, Belle, Bonds, or Griffey???  

--
#35 Thomas

 
 
 

Frank Thomas & walks

Post by Doug Ribl » Wed, 27 Dec 1995 04:00:00

Quote:

>I would be interested in hearing opinions/evaluations on Frank Thomas's
>chances to set the record for most walks ever in the history of baseball.  

The all-time record is held by Babe Ruth, with 2056.  Two active players
could eventually challenge the record:

  Rickey Henderson    1550  (37 next season)
  Frank Thomas         661  (28 next season)


## "The important thing in writing is the capacity
## to astonish, not shock." -- Terry Southern

 
 
 

Frank Thomas & walks

Post by Ted Fra » Wed, 27 Dec 1995 04:00:00


Quote:

> Third, do people think Bonds has a better chance of amassing
>more walks.

Than Thomas? It will be close; Bonds had an earlier start and is
more likely to play into his 40's. Thomas walks more per year. He
might set a season record, but he's not likely to reach Ruth's
totals unless he plays into his 40's as a dh.

Quote:
> Also, I would be interested in evaluations of who will hit the
>most homeruns in his career, Thomas, Belle, Bonds, or Griffey???  

Griffey is a year and a half younger than Thomas and already has
more home runs. Unless Griffey keeps running into walls, Thomas isn't
going to catch him. Bonds has the misfortune of continuing to play in
pitchers' parks; Griffey should pass him. Belle is older than Thomas
but only has a handful more homers than Griffey; Griffey should pass him,
too.

Griffey has yet to see his best season. Belle just did, and the same is
probably true for Bonds and Thomas.

All bets are off if any of these people sign with Colorado.

--
[insert .signature here]

 
 
 

Frank Thomas & walks

Post by John P. Lem » Fri, 29 Dec 1995 04:00:00

Quote:


>>        I would be interested in hearing opinions/evaluations on Frank
>>Thomas's chances to set the record for most walks ever in the history of
>>baseball.

>Who cares?

Apparently the original poster does since he asked the question in the
first place.  For that matter, I care too.

Quote:
>>First of all, what is the record??

>Exactly.

Babe Ruth had 2036 walks.

Quote:

>>Third, do people think Bonds has a better chance of amassing
>>more walks.  

>Who cares?

Once again, I would guess the poster does.  I personally think Thomas
has a better chance of passing Ruth than Bonds does because Thomas
is almost 4 years younger and only has 270 fewer walks.  But, either
of them could have a career ending injury at any time.  Both Bonds
and Thomas get a lot of intentional walks right now which will help
to pad their totals.

Quote:
>>Also, I would be interested in evaluations of who will hit the
>>most homeruns in his career, Thomas, Belle, Bonds, or Griffey???  

>A little more interesting, but not much.  Pseudo stat fans can trot
>out formulae derived from generalized data that have absolutely no
>causal relationship with the individual case and pretend to add to
>your knowledge with an answer to this question.  My paper-boy says
>Griffey.

STATS, Inc. ran some projections in their most recent book.  Right
now they project Thomas to finish with 506, Belle with 498,
Bonds with 496, and Griffey with 459.  However, I think their
projections underrate Griffey.  I would guess that he got penalized
in the projection due to his injury this year.  If I were to make a
guess, I would guess Thomas and Griffey will be the top 2 of the 4,
and I think Griffey will end up with more than Thomas, but not by much.

John Lemek

--

Pontiff RDFC
Disclaimer: My opinions are not those of Stanford University - heck, I don't
            even live in California anymore.

 
 
 

Frank Thomas & walks

Post by r.. » Fri, 29 Dec 1995 04:00:00


Quote:

>    I would be interested in hearing opinions/evaluations on Frank
>Thomas's chances to set the record for most walks ever in the history of
>baseball.

Who cares?

Quote:
>First of all, what is the record??

Exactly.

Quote:
>Second, what would be the
>major determining factors to look for which would help/hurt his
>chances???  

Some managers believe in intentionally walking damaging hitters when there
are men in scoring position in a tight game.  There are 3 stats to keep you
and the rest busy: intentional walks, hitters in scoring position and tight games.

Quote:
>Third, do people think Bonds has a better chance of amassing
>more walks.  

Who cares?

Quote:
>Also, I would be interested in evaluations of who will hit the
>most homeruns in his career, Thomas, Belle, Bonds, or Griffey???  

A little more interesting, but not much.  Pseudo stat fans can trot
out formulae derived from generalized data that have absolutely no
causal relationship with the individual case and pretend to add to
your knowledge with an answer to this question.  My paper-boy says
Griffey.

cordially, as always,

rm

 
 
 

Frank Thomas & walks

Post by White S » Fri, 29 Dec 1995 04:00:00


: >
: >  I would be interested in hearing opinions/evaluations on Frank
: >Thomas's chances to set the record for most walks ever in the history of
: >baseball.

: Who cares?

        I guess it's not the most important thing in the world to worry
about.  But for some reason I have always had a fascination with
walks in my time as a baseball fan.  I always admired the player who had
the patience to wait for his pitch and not be a hacker.  Granted, I guess
it makes me sort of weird to pay attention to walks...but well, it
wouldn't be the only thing that makes me different.  

: >Second, what would be the
: >major determining factors to look for which would help/hurt his
: >chances???  

: Some managers believe in intentionally walking damaging hitters when there
: are men in scoring position in a tight game.  There are 3 stats to keep you
: and the rest busy: intentional walks, hitters in scoring position and
: tight games.

        yeah...I was at a WhiteSox-Jays game last year where the pitcher
got out ahead 0-2 on Thomas with runners on 2nd&3rd with no outs in the
1rst.  After all that, he just threw 4 straight balls way out of the
strike zone...in that situation, I think you just got to pitch to Thomas
and if he clobbers the ball, tip your hat to him.  

: >Third, do people think Bonds has a better chance of amassing
: >more walks.  

: Who cares?

        Well, for starters, I do because these are the 2 players who seem
to consistently draw walks by the boatload.  

: >Also, I would be interested in evaluations of who will hit the
: >most homeruns in his career, Thomas, Belle, Bonds, or Griffey???  

: A little more interesting, but not much.  Pseudo stat fans can trot
: out formulae derived from generalized data that have absolutely no
: causal relationship with the individual case and pretend to add to
: your knowledge with an answer to this question.

        As the famous line on SNL goes..."not a word, not a word!"  :)

        In all seriousness, I realize no prediction can be 100%
guaranteed.  All I was looking for were opinions.  I appreciate yours
along with others.    

: My paper-boy says Griffey.

        yeah, I agree.  

--
WhiteSox

 
 
 

Frank Thomas & walks

Post by Perry Sail » Fri, 29 Dec 1995 04:00:00

This is too bizarre.  Is this from the same Rob Misra who regularly gets his
jollies posting ridiculous juvenile trolls in the Reds group (and others,
FAIK)?  Now he's playing Mr. Cordial to Cordial Boy himself?  I need to lie
down.

Quote:


>: >
>: >     I would be interested in hearing opinions/evaluations on Frank
>: >Thomas's chances to set the record for most walks ever in the history of
>: >baseball.
>: Who cares?
>        I guess it's not the most important thing in the world to worry
>about.  But for some reason I have always had a fascination with
>walks in my time as a baseball fan.  I always admired the player who had
>the patience to wait for his pitch and not be a hacker.  Granted, I guess
>it makes me sort of weird to pay attention to walks...but well, it
>wouldn't be the only thing that makes me different.  
>: >Second, what would be the
>: >major determining factors to look for which would help/hurt his
>: >chances???  
>: Some managers believe in intentionally walking damaging hitters when there
>: are men in scoring position in a tight game.  There are 3 stats to keep you
>: and the rest busy: intentional walks, hitters in scoring position and
>: tight games.
>        yeah...I was at a WhiteSox-Jays game last year where the pitcher
>got out ahead 0-2 on Thomas with runners on 2nd&3rd with no outs in the
>1rst.  After all that, he just threw 4 straight balls way out of the
>strike zone...in that situation, I think you just got to pitch to Thomas
>and if he clobbers the ball, tip your hat to him.  
>: >Third, do people think Bonds has a better chance of amassing
>: >more walks.  
>: Who cares?
>        Well, for starters, I do because these are the 2 players who seem
>to consistently draw walks by the boatload.  
>: >Also, I would be interested in evaluations of who will hit the
>: >most homeruns in his career, Thomas, Belle, Bonds, or Griffey???  
>: A little more interesting, but not much.  Pseudo stat fans can trot
>: out formulae derived from generalized data that have absolutely no
>: causal relationship with the individual case and pretend to add to
>: your knowledge with an answer to this question.
>        As the famous line on SNL goes..."not a word, not a word!"  :)
>        In all seriousness, I realize no prediction can be 100%
>guaranteed.  All I was looking for were opinions.  I appreciate yours
>along with others.    
>: My paper-boy says Griffey.
>        yeah, I agree.  
>--
>WhiteSox

 
 
 

Frank Thomas & walks

Post by Joseph Hou » Sat, 30 Dec 1995 04:00:00

I've read all the other drivel about this, but hell, I'm a Thomas fan,
so I've got some answers, too.

Using Bill James' "Favorite Toy", it's projected that Frank has a little
less than a thousand more games in him (I think that projection was
skewed because of his injury in 1993 and, of course, that "distasteful
disagreement" that caused the gaps in 1994 and 1995's stats). Frank has,
as we know, accumulated 661 bases on balls (and 182 home runs).
"Lengthening out" his career using the Favorite Toy, we see that for a
player his age (as of opening day 1996), he'll project out to 1558 walks
for his career (this is a low projection, once again) along with 470
homers.

Personal opinion - Bonds has hit more HR than any other NL'er in the
1990's. I think he's got a good shot at 500 career HR. And, unless he
does something foolish (Pete Rose, Pete Rose), he's probably a good
candidate for the HOF. Thomas and Bonds, though, need one thing to
clinch a HOF bid: World Series rings on their fingers.

And for anyone who doesn't care about this, just kill this post!

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  \__/_/\/ /\__/ |\/ |  \_/   /  \/ \/ \/|/ |\__/                  
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/  /  Homepage: \| <http://www.execpc.com/~jwhouk/index.html>      
\_/   "Character is what you are in the dark." - D.L. Moody

 
 
 

Frank Thomas & walks

Post by Jack Hera » Sun, 31 Dec 1995 04:00:00


Quote:

>This is too bizarre.  Is this from the same Rob Misra who regularly gets his
>jollies posting ridiculous juvenile trolls in the Reds group (and others,
>FAIK)?

That's nothing.  You should see what he's written (or used to write)
in the Indians newsgroup.

Quote:
>  Now he's playing Mr. Cordial to Cordial Boy himself?  I need to lie
>down.

Rob recently got knocked off his horse by lightning on the road to
Damascus.
--
Jack Heraty

Don't take the world serious.

 
 
 

Frank Thomas & walks

Post by dt » Tue, 02 Jan 1996 04:00:00


Quote:

>         I would be interested in hearing opinions/evaluations on Frank
> Thomas's chances to set the record for most walks ever in the history of
> baseball.  First of all, what is the record?? Second, what would be the
> major determining factors to look for which would help/hurt his
> chances???  Third, do people think Bonds has a better chance of amassing
> more walks.  Also, I would be interested in evaluations of who will hit the
> most homeruns in his career, Thomas, Belle, Bonds, or Griffey???

Most BB's career:
Ruth 2056
Williams 2019
Morgan 1865
Yaz 1845

Thomas has 661 after last season, averaging ~135 per 162 games
in his career--if he did that for another 10 1/2 years, he would
have the record.
Bonds has 864 after last year--averaging 105 per 162 games--he
would have to do this for another 11-12 years to get the record.
Thomas is younger (27 vs 31) and has been much less injury prone than
Bonds

 
 
 

Frank Thomas & walks

Post by Vinay Kum » Fri, 12 Jan 1996 04:00:00




: >         I would be interested in hearing opinions/evaluations on Frank
: > Thomas's chances to set the record for most walks ever in the history of
: > baseball.  First of all, what is the record?? Second, what would be the
: > major determining factors to look for which would help/hurt his
: > chances???  Third, do people think Bonds has a better chance of amassing
: > more walks.  Also, I would be interested in evaluations of who will hit the
: > most homeruns in his career, Thomas, Belle, Bonds, or Griffey???

I ran some numbers through Bill James' favorite toy, asking these exact
questions.  I don't remember exactly what I got, but I remember a couple
things about HR.  First off, Belle is unlikely to have the most because he's
a few years older than Thomas and Griffey.  Griffey was projected to have an
amazing career before this past season (he was projected between 600-700 HR,
and had an outside shot at *800* -- of course, this was heavily weighted on
his strike-shortened super-season).  The 3 (Bonds/Thomas/Griffey) are now
pretty close; I think Thomas was highest.  I have the spreadsheet at school,
so mayble I'll post the numbers next week.  I think the STATS handbook has
these exact projections this year.

: Thomas is younger (27 vs 31) and has been much less injury prone than
: Bonds

What?!  Am I missing something, or confused, or forgetting something?  How
can Thomas be "much less injury prone" than Bonds?  Bonds isn't injury-prone
at all.

--

Vinay Kumar

http://ocf.berkeley.edu/~vinayk/

RDFC