>>On Wed, 06 Jun 2001 03:09:31 GMT, A is A Exterminators

>>>Oh, for crying out loud, how hard is it to explain this? I don't have him

>>>projected for 42 this season. I have him projected currently for 57, based on

>>>his established pace and how many he hit so far. Do I need to go into the

>>>details of the math, or can you attempt to figure it out yourself?

>>Your explanation, while clear to you and at least one other person,

>>wasn't clear to me. It is now. Thanks.

>>Tom

>>PS-He'll very nearly beat McGwire's record, but not quite...he is off

>>his established pace for a long enough time now for it to be

>>considered moot. Has he ever hit like this before?

>He'll very nearly beat it but not quite . . . is that some hunch of yours? At

>least I base my expectations on his actual demonstrated levels of performances.

>I just don't have some hunch or other that he'll finish at some particular

>level.

his year. Has he ever had 2 months like this before, I wonder? I admit

more than mid 50's to low 60's (29+ 2/3 of 42 or 49).

Given my track record, I've likely jinxed him now, anyway. :-(

>>>>On Tue, 05 Jun 2001 02:08:49 GMT, A is A Exterminators

>>>>>#5 is the closest to what I'm doing, only I weight the totals from each of the

>>>>>past 3 years to get the "established pace," which is 42. I weight the last

>>>>>year's total by 3, the year before that by 2, and the year before that by 1, and

>>>>>divide by 6.

>>>>I'll bet if you take his worst 4 months of the last 5 years, not even

>>>>consecutive, and add it to his current total, you'll get more than 42.

>>>>Tom

>>>>>>>>On Sat, 02 Jun 2001 13:53:23 GMT, A is A Exterminators

>>>>>>>>>And educated projection has him in the 57-62 range, depending on what you

>>>>>>>>>consider to be his "established pace," but the projection has been steadily

>>>>>>>>>rising.

>>>>>>>>How is this calculated? 29 HR in 1/3 of his team's games translates to

>>>>>>>>87 HR if he plays at the same rate that he has so far, at least in my

>>>>>>>>simple world. What fudge factors must be applied to reduce him by 25%

>>>>>>>>or so, and how are these fudge factors arrived at? His "date to"

>>>>>>>>numbers are better than McGwire's record season, right? Why is the

>>>>>>>>simple translation okay for projecting games played, but it isn't okay

>>>>>>>>for HR?

>>>>>>>Well, here's an answer to the last question. Here are Bonds' games played

>>>>>>>through his career: 113 (rookie season), 150, 144, 159, 151, 153, 140, 159,

>>>>>>>112 (of 115, strike year #1), 144 (of 144, strike year #2), 158, 159, 156,

>>>>>>>102 (injury), 143 (injury). So barring injury, there's every reason to

>>>>>>>believe he'll play 150 games this year.

>>>>>>More if he's after the record...

>>>>>>>Now, of the various ways to project his HR total:

>>>>>>>1. Straight extrapolation: 84.

>>>>>>Okay...20% better than the record...how much must he do before he is

>>>>>>recognized?? I LOVE Mark McGwire, but if BB gets him into

>>>>>>second-place...c'est la vie!

>>>>>>>2. Take his best season rate (Barry's HR/team's games) (1994) and project the

>>>>>>>rest of the season that way: 63.

>>>>>>How about take his best previous 2 month/60 day (irrespective of

>>>>>>calandar date) total, and extrapolate, based on the final total that

>>>>>>season? How about adding his worst 2/3 of a season to his current

>>>>>>total?

>>>>>>I see what's happening here...but...Barry is off to a very good start,

>>>>>>isn't he? :-)

>>>>>>He can hit 11 HR for 2/3 of a season, and end up with 40, and

>>>>>>possibly(?) lead the league with that. If that isn't enough,

>>>>>>then...let's just see what he can do. He is in a groove?

>>>>>>Barry may have this in his sights already...3 or 4 weeks will tell the

>>>>>>tale...should he do a Sammy at the end, I'll hear all "bets" are off!!

>>>>>>GO BARRY!!

>>>>>>I'll stick with the (constantly adjusting) extrapolation, thank you.

>>>>>>It worked for Mark and Sammy...sort of...the line was very uneven on

>>>>>>the graph I followed...

>>>>>>I like the fancy stuff for some analysis, but there are times when

>>>>>>common sense is your guide.

>>>>>>Tom

>>>>>>>3. Same as number 2, excluding shortened seasons (so, using 2000): 61.

>>>>>>>4. Take his best season rate (Barry's HR/Barry's GP) (2000) and project

>>>>>>>forward, assuming he plays 150 games: 62.5.

>>>>>>>5. Take his HR rate over the last 3 years, average it, and project

>>>>>>>forward: 58.

>>>>>>>6. Take his career HR rate and project forward: 51.5.

>>>>>>>It seems to me that 2 through 5 are more reasonable than 1 or 6. Personally,

>>>>>>>I believe (hope?) that the step up in his HR rate is real, and that if he

>>>>>>>stays healthy, he's got a good chance at 70.

>>>>>>>-Jim

>>>>>--

>>>>>A is A Exterminators

>>>>>Here to check your premises

>>>--

>>>A is A Exterminators

>>>Here to check your premises

>--

>A is A Exterminators

>Here to check your premises