>>>Watching the Sox/Twins game last night, Hawk & Wimpy (the Sox Commentators/homers)
>>>made a comment that a leadoff walk tends to score more often than say a leadoff
>>>hit. Probably not as often as a leadoff homerun... :-)
>>>I assume that their comment was statistically baseless, except for the
>>>inning where the leadoff walk happend to score in this game, however,
>>>does a stat hound out in net.land have any info on this ?
>> Effect of first event in inning, both leagues, 1984-1991
>> Leadoff Prob of >= 1 run Avg. number of runs
>> single .428 .855
>> walk .432 .865
>> error .441 .867
>> out .156 .255
>> other .742 1.215
> Okay, time for bad-but-possible-explaination-time:
> The avergae pitcher gives up a hit an inning. If a pitcher gives up a
>single to lead off the inning, there is a good chance there won't be another
>hit that inning.
"To avoid terrorist attacks, carry a bomb in your suitcase. After all,
the odds of a bomb are a million to one, so the odds of TWO bombs on the
same plane must be a TRILLION to one."
Nope, sorry. It doesn't work like that. A pitcher gives up one hit
for every three outs, right?
So, how many outs does the pitcher have left after that leadoff hit?
And howcome league batting averages RISE with men on base? If your
balancing effect existed, they'd have to fall.
>OTOH, if the pitcher leads off yeilding a walk, the batting
>team still has that hit they are likely to pick up later in the inning. Since
They still have it either way. The pitcher still has to face as many
batters (barring a DP).
>it is slightly easier to score a run with a hit than without, a walked leadoff
>man will score slightly more often.
Do we know this? Or is the observed .004 difference merely noise? (Hint:
probably the latter.)
>A leadoff hitter reaching on an error has
>basically just given his team (or rather, the fielder has) an extra out to play
>with, so is even more likely to score.
Huh? An error means you get four outs that inning? First I'd heard of
Actually, if there IS something to explain, I'd explain it by pointing
to the high position in the batting order of those who walk: they have
hitters behind them. Maybe. As for errors, reaching on a leadoff error
often has to do with speed. It's something that Vince Coleman, for instance,
used to do a lot. And Vince on first is more likely to score than some
other guys on first.
But remember: there's no point explaining something that's probably
just noise anyway.