Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Post by Polak9 » Tue, 29 May 2001 05:38:47


There was just a long thread on how the media would treat Bonds if he began a
chase of the HR single season record, and today, in the Chicago Tribune, Phil
Rogers had an article on the topic.  It probably is on the Trib's website,
http://www.chicagotribune.com, but I didn't bother to look for it.

The article focuses on mostly on Bond's chances of breaking McGwire's record,
and throws in the possibility of beating Hank Aaron's career HR record, as well
as Rogers Hornsby's single season SLG National League record.

The tone is mostly fair, but there were two really unneccessary comments.  The
first is calling Bonds "The little smart aleck", and the second about if he
enters a chase for Aaron's record, the only thing that may stop him is getting
hit by a Brinks truck.  Actually, the latter was just stupid and should have
been edited out.

One thing that I do think we will hear over and over again if Bonds get into a
hunt.  First, PacBell's short right-field porch (but Rogers does mention) that
Bonds is hitting more homeruns on the road since PacBell opened.  

The article also mentions that Bonds has not visited good homerun parks like
Enron, Coors and Wrigley yet.  

A pretty good overall tone, but I think that is what you can expect, generally
favorable comments with a few smartass remarks thrown in.

 
 
 

Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Post by A is A Exterminator » Tue, 29 May 2001 09:20:23


Quote:

>There was just a long thread on how the media would treat Bonds if he began a
>chase of the HR single season record, and today, in the Chicago Tribune, Phil
>Rogers had an article on the topic.  It probably is on the Trib's website,
>http://www.chicagotribune.com, but I didn't bother to look for it.

>The article focuses on mostly on Bond's chances of breaking McGwire's record,
>and throws in the possibility of beating Hank Aaron's career HR record, as well
>as Rogers Hornsby's single season SLG National League record.

>The tone is mostly fair, but there were two really unneccessary comments.  The
>first is calling Bonds "The little smart aleck", and the second about if he
>enters a chase for Aaron's record, the only thing that may stop him is getting
>hit by a Brinks truck.  Actually, the latter was just stupid and should have
>been edited out.

>One thing that I do think we will hear over and over again if Bonds get into a
>hunt.  First, PacBell's short right-field porch (but Rogers does mention) that
>Bonds is hitting more homeruns on the road since PacBell opened.  

A sportswriter bringing up the short right-field porch would likely be
dishonest, not bothering to check the facts of the matter.  Bonds is not a pull
hitter of that sort, so few go right down the line.  The wall is also quite
high.  And it gets very deep in RF very quick, going out to 420 feet in right
center field.  The park factors also show a marked HR disadvantage for
left-handed hitters.

So the park effect is a red herring, and a very flimsy reason to explain away
the HR, but don't be surprised to see mediots/scumbags bringing it up to
denigrate what he's doing.

Quote:
>The article also mentions that Bonds has not visited good homerun parks like
>Enron, Coors and Wrigley yet.  

>A pretty good overall tone, but I think that is what you can expect, generally
>favorable comments with a few smartass remarks thrown in.

--
A is A Exterminators
Here to check your premises

 
 
 

Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Post by A is A Exterminator » Tue, 29 May 2001 09:47:00

It's at:

http://www.chicagosports.com/columnists/content/column/0,2007,152748,...

Regarding Aaron and 755, Bonds is quoted as follows:

"I promise you from the bottom of my heart I won't be in the game that long," he
said. "I guarantee you that. I'm going to be on vacation."

Of course, I've heard any number of conflicting things being said over the
years.  At one point, he said that when he reaches 500/500, he'll hang 'em up.
The other thing he said, probably more reliable, is that he plans to play until
he's 40-something, since he knows that his body is capable of it.  So what I see
here is Bonds doubting that he's going to have enough HR by the time he reaches
age 40-something to be within very close striking distance of, or surpassing,
755.  I assume that he wants to play only as long as he keeps up a level of
performance he's satisfied with, meaning that if he drops, say, below 20 HR a
year, he'll decide that he's had enough.

Note that he says that he won't be around "that long," in which case he's
thinking that it would take him well into his 40s to have a good shot.  But if,
say, he reaches 700 by his age 40 season (2005) and can still hit 30 a year at
that point, it would be crazy for him not to pursue the most coveted record in
the game.  I would say that he's just being modest about his expectations for
how many he'd have 5 years from now, but would still be around more than 5 years
from now to pursue The Record if he exceeds his own expectations.

If I'm not mistaken, at the #500 press conference, someone asked him about
reaching his godfather's mark of 660, and he said that he wouldn't be around
long enough for *that*, which would be baffling since he's now virtually right
on track to do just that, and had stated before last season that it would be
something he'd have to shoot for.

The reasonable thing to conclude is that, if he stays around until 40-something
like he most likely will, we'll then know about 5 years from now whether he'll
have enough to stay around to pursue The Record.  So it shouldn't at all be
ruled out at this point.


Quote:

>There was just a long thread on how the media would treat Bonds if he began a
>chase of the HR single season record, and today, in the Chicago Tribune, Phil
>Rogers had an article on the topic.  It probably is on the Trib's website,
>http://www.chicagotribune.com, but I didn't bother to look for it.

>The article focuses on mostly on Bond's chances of breaking McGwire's record,
>and throws in the possibility of beating Hank Aaron's career HR record, as well
>as Rogers Hornsby's single season SLG National League record.

>The tone is mostly fair, but there were two really unneccessary comments.  The
>first is calling Bonds "The little smart aleck", and the second about if he
>enters a chase for Aaron's record, the only thing that may stop him is getting
>hit by a Brinks truck.  Actually, the latter was just stupid and should have
>been edited out.

>One thing that I do think we will hear over and over again if Bonds get into a
>hunt.  First, PacBell's short right-field porch (but Rogers does mention) that
>Bonds is hitting more homeruns on the road since PacBell opened.  

>The article also mentions that Bonds has not visited good homerun parks like
>Enron, Coors and Wrigley yet.  

>A pretty good overall tone, but I think that is what you can expect, generally
>favorable comments with a few smartass remarks thrown in.

--
A is A Exterminators
Here to check your premises

 
 
 

Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Post by Dani » Tue, 29 May 2001 10:09:14

A is A Exterminators says...

Quote:
> A sportswriter bringing up the short right-field porch would likely be
> dishonest, not bothering to check the facts of the matter.  Bonds is not
> a pull hitter of that sort, so few go right down the line.  The wall is also
> quite high.  And it gets very deep in RF very quick, going out to 420 feet
> in right center field.  The park factors also show a marked HR disadvantage
> for left-handed hitters.

Is Bonds still the only player to hit it into the water there?
 
 
 

Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Post by Daryl Cunningh » Tue, 29 May 2001 13:44:53



Quote:
>A is A Exterminators says...
>> A sportswriter bringing up the short right-field porch would likely be
>> dishonest, not bothering to check the facts of the matter.  Bonds is
>> not a pull hitter of that sort, so few go right down the line.  The
>> wall is also quite high.  And it gets very deep in RF very quick,
>> going out to 420 feet in right center field.  The park factors also
>> show a marked HR disadvantage for left-handed hitters.

>Is Bonds still the only player to hit it into the water there?

If I'm not mistaken, I believe Todd Hundley was the first visiting player
to do so last year.

--
Daryl Cunningham
Miami University Masters student
Department of Economics

 
 
 

Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Post by Dale Hick » Tue, 29 May 2001 15:14:48



Quote:
> A is A Exterminators says...
> > A sportswriter bringing up the short right-field porch would likely be
> > dishonest, not bothering to check the facts of the matter.  Bonds is not
> > a pull hitter of that sort, so few go right down the line.  The wall is also
> > quite high.  And it gets very deep in RF very quick, going out to 420 feet
> > in right center field.  The park factors also show a marked HR disadvantage
> > for left-handed hitters.

> Is Bonds still the only player to hit it into the water there?

Nope.  This was a trivia question on the Rockies game the other night.  
There are two players other than Bonds to have done it.  Of course, I've
forgotten the answer, but Daryl's answer of Hundley sounds right.

Also, note that the "splash hits" counter at the stadium is "wrong".  It
only counts the nine that Bonds has hit, not the 11 total.

--

 
 
 

Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Post by SPC Bryan S. Slic » Tue, 29 May 2001 17:54:26

On Mon, 28 May 2001 00:47:00 GMT, A is A Exterminators completely failed
to help me find a new quoting string..

Quote:
> It's at:

> http://www.chicagosports.com/columnists/content/column/0,2007,152748,...

> Regarding Aaron and 755, Bonds is quoted as follows:

> "I promise you from the bottom of my heart I won't be in the game that long," he
> said. "I guarantee you that. I'm going to be on vacation."

Irrelevant.. the number to beat is 714.

--
**********

*
* "For those who preserve it, freedom has
*  a flavor the protected will never know."
**********

 
 
 

Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Post by Ima Pseudon » Tue, 29 May 2001 18:05:14

On Mon, 28 May 2001 02:54:26 -0600, SPC Bryan S. Slick

Quote:

>On Mon, 28 May 2001 00:47:00 GMT, A is A Exterminators completely failed
>to help me find a new quoting string..

>> It's at:

>> http://www.chicagosports.com/columnists/content/column/0,2007,152748,...

>> Regarding Aaron and 755, Bonds is quoted as follows:

>> "I promise you from the bottom of my heart I won't be in the game that long," he
>> said. "I guarantee you that. I'm going to be on vacation."

>Irrelevant.. the number to beat is 714.

Maybe in some alternate reality.  In the real world the
career home run record is 755, held by Hank Aaron.  It was
set in 1974.  I guess you've been somewhere else for the
last 27 years.

Oh, btw, McGwire holds the single season record now, with 70
homeruns in a season.

For the proof of Pete Rose's guilt
http://www.dowdreport.com/
It has a lot of Acrobat downloads,
because there is so much evidence
of his guilt

 
 
 

Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Post by JVV4 » Tue, 29 May 2001 19:46:53

Quote:
>> Is Bonds still the only player to hit it into the water there?

>Nope.  This was a trivia question on the Rockies game the other night.  
>There are two players other than Bonds to have done it.  Of course, I've
>forgotten the answer, but Daryl's answer of Hundley sounds right.

>Also, note that the "splash hits" counter at the stadium is "wrong".  It
>only counts the nine that Bonds has hit, not the 11 total.

Posada had a splash hit in a 2000 spring training game there, and Todd Hundley
and Luis Gonzales did it in regular season games.

The splash hit counter only reflects Giants' home runs that hit the cove on the
fly(they didn't count one that hit the prtwalk and bounced into the water).
It's only "wrong" in the same sense that teams only display numbers retired for
their team ("Hey, why don't the Giants show Ted Williams' #9 with the reitred
numbers for Mays, McCover, etc -- that number was retired too!")

 
 
 

Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Post by A is A Exterminator » Tue, 29 May 2001 20:26:54


says...

Quote:

>On Mon, 28 May 2001 00:47:00 GMT, A is A Exterminators completely failed
>to help me find a new quoting string..

>> It's at:

>> http://www.chicagosports.com/columnists/content/column/0,2007,152748,...

>> Regarding Aaron and 755, Bonds is quoted as follows:

>> "I promise you from the bottom of my heart I won't be in the game that long," he
>> said. "I guarantee you that. I'm going to be on vacation."

>Irrelevant.. the number to beat is 714.

Ya know, I was sort of thinking that myself.  But it still doesn't make on the
all-time home-run king to hit that mark any longer.

--
A is A Exterminators
Here to check your premises

 
 
 

Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Post by David Marc Nieporen » Wed, 30 May 2001 04:04:07



Quote:
>On Mon, 28 May 2001 00:47:00 GMT, A is A Exterminators completely failed
>> It's at:
>> http://www.chicagosports.com/columnists/content/column/0,2007,152748,...
>> Regarding Aaron and 755, Bonds is quoted as follows:
>> "I promise you from the bottom of my heart I won't be in the game that
>> long," he said. "I guarantee you that. I'm going to be on vacation."
>Irrelevant.. the number to beat is 714.

Did you miss the last 3 decades?  714 hasn't been a record in quite a
while.

---------------------------------------------

 
 
 

Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Post by SPC Bryan S. Slic » Wed, 30 May 2001 05:15:53

On Mon, 28 May 2001 09:05:14 GMT, Ima Pseudonym completely failed to help
me find a new quoting string..

Quote:
> On Mon, 28 May 2001 02:54:26 -0600, SPC Bryan S. Slick

> >On Mon, 28 May 2001 00:47:00 GMT, A is A Exterminators completely failed
> >to help me find a new quoting string..

> >> It's at:

> >> http://www.chicagosports.com/columnists/content/column/0,2007,152748,...

> >> Regarding Aaron and 755, Bonds is quoted as follows:

> >> "I promise you from the bottom of my heart I won't be in the game that long," he
> >> said. "I guarantee you that. I'm going to be on vacation."

> >Irrelevant.. the number to beat is 714.

> Maybe in some alternate reality.  In the real world the
> career home run record is 755, held by Hank Aaron.  It was
> set in 1974.  I guess you've been somewhere else for the
> last 27 years.

> Oh, btw, McGwire holds the single season record now, with 70
> homeruns in a season.

Aaron's record does little to nothing to impress me.  Give Ruth the same
number of at-bats, and he hits over 1,000 homeruns.  (I believe the
estimate is 1,052.)

--
**********

*
* "For those who preserve it, freedom has
*  a flavor the protected will never know."
**********

 
 
 

Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Post by Doug Norr » Wed, 30 May 2001 06:41:34


Quote:
>Aaron's record does little to nothing to impress me.  Give Ruth the same
>number of at-bats, and he hits over 1,000 homeruns.  (I believe the
>estimate is 1,052.)

Give Ruth *six* times the number of at-bats, and he's still alive and playing
today.

Part of the reason Ruth left the game is because he was done.  Holding
Aaron's longevity against him as asinine - it's a CAREER record; not a
"record for people with Ruth's number of AB or less".

Nice troll, though.

Doug

 
 
 

Article on Bonds chasing HR milestones

Post by A is A Exterminator » Wed, 30 May 2001 07:48:56

A problem with using at-bats is that it's *plate appearances* that should be
used as the baseline, since Ruth had a much higher walks rate, so of course his
HR/AB ratio is going to be that much higher, other things being equal.  The best
we could do is to give an estimate of how many he'd have hit if he played
full-time from the beginning of his career -- in deadball condition, no less.
The estimate that I've seen gives him an additional 50 or so hypothetical HR,
though that may have been as high as 100, enough to give him 800 or more.

I am, in any case, much more impressed with the 714 over essentially 16 seasons,
vs. the 755 in 22 seasons.

690


Quote:


>>Aaron's record does little to nothing to impress me.  Give Ruth the same
>>number of at-bats, and he hits over 1,000 homeruns.  (I believe the
>>estimate is 1,052.)

>Give Ruth *six* times the number of at-bats, and he's still alive and playing
>today.

>Part of the reason Ruth left the game is because he was done.  Holding
>Aaron's longevity against him as asinine - it's a CAREER record; not a
>"record for people with Ruth's number of AB or less".

>Nice troll, though.

>Doug

--
A is A Exterminators
Here to check your premises