Mariano Rivera

Mariano Rivera

Post by RStLo » Fri, 17 Nov 2000 04:00:00


Where do you predict that he will rank among baseball's great relievers by the
time his career is through?
 
 
 

Mariano Rivera

Post by Douglas T. Mass » Fri, 17 Nov 2000 04:00:00



Quote:
> Where do you predict that he will rank among baseball's great relievers by the
> time his career is through?

Interesting question -- I guess first, hthough, you have to decide who
are baseball's great relievers.

Eckersley, Wilhelm, Gossage, and Quisenberry are the first four that
I'd think of (with a nod to Firpo Marberry).  But Dennis had 361
career starts and 710 relief apps., Wilhelm had 52 and 1022, Gossage
had 37 and 965, and Quiz had 0 and 674.  Eck has the best numbers,
but it's heavily aided by those starts.  Wilhelm's numbers are
aided by lots of runs that were unearned due to passed balls.

The question, though, is how will Rivera stack up to these four.

He had 10 starts in 19 games in 1995 and didn't pitch very well.  
Then he had five great seasons, with ERA+'s of 242, 236, 234, 245,
and 178.  He's averaged 90 IP per season, but only about 70 since
becoming the closer in '97.

What can we expect from Rivera in the future?  He's 31 next season.
if he pitches 8 more years, 60 G and 70 IP per year, he's be over
800 games and 1100 IP (IP for the four above?  3286, 2254, 1809,
and 1043).  He's likely to decline some (if for no other reason than
he has almost no room to improve!), but if he posts 150+ ERA over
those years, then he'll finish with an ERA+ around 160 (a victim,
sort of, of the way ERA+'s are averaged together -- weighted by ER,
not by IP).  The other four were at 116, 146, 125, and 146.  Hoyt's
RA is probably only around 125, so he's got 'em all whipped.

The only thing keeping him from the top would be volume -- games
and IP.  The top end for him is about 1000 games and 1250 IP.  It's
probably not really his fault that Torre doesn't use him more, but
then again, would he be as effective if he pitched 150 IP per year?

Another possibility is that he falls off significantly -- he'd had
a great run from age 26-30, but he *could* be league average by 34.
I think it's the greatest five-year peak by any reliever ever, though,
and that will work to his advantage no matter what happens.

Doug
--
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 ___,  IBM Microelectronics Division, Burlington, Vermont
 \o    ASICs Product Development Engineering                        |>
  |    Phone: (802)769-7095 t/l: 446-7095 fax: x6752                |

   .   Doug's Homepage:  http://members.tripod.com/~masseyd        (|)

 
 
 

Mariano Rivera

Post by Vinay Kuma » Fri, 17 Nov 2000 04:00:00




: > Where do you predict that he will rank among baseball's great
: > relievers by the time his career is through?

: Interesting question -- I guess first, hthough, you have to decide who
: are baseball's great relievers.
:
: Eckersley, Wilhelm, Gossage, and Quisenberry are the first four that
: I'd think of (with a nod to Firpo Marberry).

[snip]

: The only thing keeping him from the top would be volume -- games
: and IP.

Hmm, I think it's tough to decide where Rivera might rank among those
greats, because it's so hard to rank those guys already.  Their
credentials are all different based on different use patterns.

I'll buy Doug's assumptions for the rest of his career, and I'll be
satisfied to say that he'll rank among that group of four.  I don't
feel pressured to be any more specific.  :)

--
/---------------------------------------------------------------\
| Vinay Kumar                                                   |

\---------------------------------------------------------------/

 
 
 

Mariano Rivera

Post by Sean T. Smi » Sat, 18 Nov 2000 04:00:00


Quote:

> What can we expect from Rivera in the future?  He's 31 next season.
> if he pitches 8 more years, 60 G and 70 IP per year, he's be over
> 800 games and 1100 IP (IP for the four above?  3286, 2254, 1809,
> and 1043).

Wasn't there a story in the NY Times during last winter which said Rivera
planned to play only another few years and then retire, because he wanted
to pursue a religious vocation of some kind?

Sean Smith

Because some things
can't be helped--http://SportToday.org/;
Featuring "Daze and Quirks"
and
The Dumb, Stupid Baseball Hat Page
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
"'Scuse us, folks -- looks like someone's spiked our liquor with ***."
--Louis Armstrong

 
 
 

Mariano Rivera

Post by Maaafsa » Sun, 19 Nov 2000 04:00:00

Quote:
>Subject: Re: Mariano Rivera

>Wasn't there a story in the NY Times during last winter which said Rivera
>planned to play only another few years and then retire, because he wanted
>to pursue a religious vocation of some kind?

He did say that last year.  His plan was to pitch for four more years, then
become a minister.  That had me worried, but I read after the World Series that
he doesn't see why he couldn't pitch and be a minister at the same time.

If he continues to pitch this well, he isn't going anywhere!

 
 
 

Mariano Rivera

Post by Tom MacInty » Sun, 19 Nov 2000 04:00:00


Quote:
>>Subject: Re: Mariano Rivera

>>Wasn't there a story in the NY Times during last winter which said Rivera
>>planned to play only another few years and then retire, because he wanted
>>to pursue a religious vocation of some kind?

>He did say that last year.  His plan was to pitch for four more years, then
>become a minister.  That had me worried, but I read after the World Series that
>he doesn't see why he couldn't pitch and be a minister at the same time.

>If he continues to pitch this well, he isn't going anywhere!

He could always work as a minister for awhile, then come back, and
pummel and punch his way to the top again in his 40's...oh, I'm
sorry..that's boxing I'm thinking of... :-)

Tom