Braves-Pirates Pitching Rotation (Does Anyone Know It?)

Braves-Pirates Pitching Rotation (Does Anyone Know It?)

Post by GILMORE,JOHN » Sat, 03 Oct 1992 22:13:30


     We are running our AI baseball demo again this year to predict series
winners. Last year we picked the Braves in 7 over the Bucs and The Twins in
6. Hopefully we do as well this time around.

Here's what I have so far:

Game 1. Smoltz vs Drabek
Game 2. Avery vs Wakefield
Game 3. Glavine vs Tomlin
Game 4. Smoltz vs ?
Game 5. Avery vs ?
Game 6. Glavine vs ?
Game 7. Smoltz vs ?

The Braves are going with a 3 man rotation for the NLCS. They have dropped the
sore-armed Pena and will used Pete Smith and Charles Liebrandt (ugh!) in
relief roles.

Thanks

PS Our simulation predictions were presented at the 92 SABR conference. Drop
   me a note if you want a copy of the paper.

--
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|                 John F. Gilmore                  |   INTERNET Address    |

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Braves-Pirates Pitching Rotation (Does Anyone Know It?)

Post by Stephen Maste » Sat, 03 Oct 1992 23:29:41

Quote:

>Here's what I have so far:

>Game 1. Smoltz vs Drabek
>Game 2. Avery vs Wakefield
>Game 3. Glavine vs Tomlin
>Game 4. Smoltz vs ?
>Game 5. Avery vs ?
>Game 6. Glavine vs ?
>Game 7. Smoltz vs ?

My understanding is that Leyland is planning on using Drabek in games 1, 4,
and 7; Wakefield in games 2 and 5; and probably Danny Jackson in games 3 and
6.  Tomlin, Walk, and/or Zane Smith would be working out of the bullpen.

Leyland is planning on only carrying 10 pitchers on the playoff roster.  I
wonder which pitcher will be dropped from the roster if Zane Smith is included.
The bullpen pitchers that are elgible for the playoffs are Belinda, Mason,
Cox, Neagle, and Patterson.

Steve Masters


 
 
 

Braves-Pirates Pitching Rotation (Does Anyone Know It?)

Post by Neal Trav » Sun, 04 Oct 1992 00:31:42

Quote:

>     We are running our AI baseball demo again this year to predict series
>winners. Last year we picked the Braves in 7 over the Bucs and The Twins in
>6. Hopefully we do as well this time around.

>Here's what I have so far:

>Game 1. Smoltz vs Drabek
>Game 2. Avery vs Wakefield
>Game 3. Glavine vs Tomlin
>Game 4. Smoltz vs ?
>Game 5. Avery vs ?
>Game 6. Glavine vs ?
>Game 7. Smoltz vs ?

How come you know who Leyland's using in game 3?  To my knowledge, he hasn't
announced anything beyond game 2.  I'd be surprised if Jackson didn't start
somewhere during the series, and Jim's been known to start Bob Walk at odd
times as well.  Zane Smith?  Who can say?  He looked good-as-new during his
three innings the other night, and reported no post-game problems with the
shoulder.  In fact, now that he's back, the report is that he had a cortisone
shot right after going on the DL, which completely ended all the pain and
discomfort -- he felt just fine for about 5.5 of the 6 weeks he was on the DL.

I can report, however, that he will use Drabek in games 1, 4, and 7.  So Mr.
Second Half will face Smoltz each time.

Quote:
>PS Our simulation predictions were presented at the 92 SABR conference. Drop
>   me a note if you want a copy of the paper.

Your paper was interesting, though I can't for the life of me figure out why
you need all that computing power to do it.  APBA and PTP can run those
simulations on a 640K 8088 PC.  I don't recall whether I picked up a copy of
the paper, so I'd be delighted if you'd pass one along to me.

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Braves-Pirates Pitching Rotation (Does Anyone Know It?)

Post by John-Marc Chandonia, , » Sun, 04 Oct 1992 01:36:07

Quote:

> The Braves are going with a 3 man rotation for the NLCS. They have dropped the
> sore-armed Pena and will used Pete Smith and Charles Liebrandt (ugh!) in
> relief roles.

Pete should start game 4.  Smoltz has been very inconsistent lately
and should not be given the chance to pitch up to three games.  If the
Braves do win, Smoltz will be too tired to pitch well in the WS.
Also, by the time Bobby takes out his starting pitcher it's usually
too late... I hope he puts winning games in the LCS ahead of his
starters' egos.

JMC
--

John-Marc Chandonia           | I will not yell fire in a crowded classroom
Graduate Biophysics Program   | I will not yell fire in a crowded classroom
Harvard University            | I will not yell fire ...

 
 
 

Braves-Pirates Pitching Rotation (Does Anyone Know It?)

Post by Sherri Nicho » Sun, 04 Oct 1992 01:56:34

Quote:

>     We are running our AI baseball demo again this year to predict series
>winners. Last year we picked the Braves in 7 over the Bucs and The Twins in
>6. Hopefully we do as well this time around.

Have you ever gotten around to running the simulation on past series?  It
would seem to me to be an important step in validating the model.

Sherri Nichols

 
 
 

Braves-Pirates Pitching Rotation (Does Anyone Know It?)

Post by Neal Trav » Sun, 04 Oct 1992 12:39:54

Quote:

>PS Still looking for who the Pirates will start in all 7 games. They will
>   only give us Drabek followed by Wakefield. ESPN predicts (ha!) Tomlin
>   for game 3, but many Pirate fans seem to think Jackson will get the nod.

According to the Pirate broadcasters, speaking on the Friday night telecast,
Leyland has revamped his rotation.  Still Drabek in 1 (and probably in 4 and
7), but he's now planning on Jackson in 2 and Wakefield in 3.  Nothing stated
for 5 or 6.

To be honest, I doubt you'll know who's starting game 4 until the day of game
3, and the ad hoc rotation is likely to continue throughout the series.

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Braves-Pirates Pitching Rotation (Does Anyone Know It?)

Post by Amit Likhyan » Sun, 04 Oct 1992 13:08:08

According to Jim Leyland:

Game 1 - Drabek
Game 2 - Jackson
Game 3 - Wakefield
repeat

They switched Jackson and Wakefield because of the 3:05 starting time of
game 2 in Atlanta.  Leyland thinks it may be harder for the catcher to
pick up a knuckleball in the day time with the glare and people sitting
in the centerfield stands.   Plus, Wakefield has pitched well at home.

He went with Jackson over Tomlin because Jackson has been a good post
season pitcher.

Personally, I think Tomlin pitched pretty well last year in game 4 if my
memory serves me right.  I kind of question using a guy who has been
with the team 1/2 a season and has pitched only OK as your number 2
starter over a guy who won 14(or is it 15) games for the year.  Jackson
has been hammered by the Braves this year(I think).  Finally, I think
Jackson can be more effective than Tomlin coming out of the bullpen to
face a couple batters.  He can bring the 95 MPH gas and devastate left
handers.

I am not ripping Leyland or even second guessing him on this move, but I
am a little curious.  Jackson pitched well in his last start and Tomlin
did not.

There is still no ruling on Zane Smith.  I hope they put him on the
roster and get rid of Danny Cox.  We shall see.

 
 
 

Braves-Pirates Pitching Rotation (Does Anyone Know It?)

Post by Joseph R Mcdona » Mon, 05 Oct 1992 01:29:43


|According to Jim Leyland:
|
|Game 1 - Drabek
|Game 2 - Jackson
|Game 3 - Wakefield
|repeat
|
|They switched Jackson and Wakefield because of the 3:05 starting time of
|game 2 in Atlanta.  Leyland thinks it may be harder for the catcher to
|pick up a knuckleball in the day time with the glare and people sitting
|in the centerfield stands.   Plus, Wakefield has pitched well at home.
|
|He went with Jackson over Tomlin because Jackson has been a good post
|season pitcher.
|
|Personally, I think Tomlin pitched pretty well last year in game 4 if my
|memory serves me right.  I kind of question using a guy who has been
|with the team 1/2 a season and has pitched only OK as your number 2
|starter over a guy who won 14(or is it 15) games for the year.  Jackson
|has been hammered by the Braves this year(I think).  Finally, I think

Jackson threw a 1-hitter against Atlanta this year in the game where Otis
Nixon robbed Van Slyke of a game-winning homer in the ninth.

Plus, Jackson's 95-mph fastball would be a good set-up to Wakefield's 50-mph
Knuckler.

Tomlin has been shaky most of the season, despite his record.

|Jackson can be more effective than Tomlin coming out of the bullpen to
|face a couple batters.  He can bring the 95 MPH gas and devastate left
|handers.

A good point, but I still would use Jackson in the rotation.  Remember
how he dominated the Bucs in 1990 as a Red in the playoffs?

|I am not ripping Leyland or even second guessing him on this move, but I
|am a little curious.  Jackson pitched well in his last start and Tomlin
|did not.

Exactly.  That clinched it.

|There is still no ruling on Zane Smith.  I hope they put him on the
|roster and get rid of Danny Cox.  We shall see.

The pitcher they will get rid of is Cooke  (he IS eligible for post-season,
but will sit this one out).

Dean
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Dean J. Falcione                                   Dean's UNIX Exorcism Service
(using jrmst8 by permission                             "We kill daemons"
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Braves-Pirates Pitching Rotation (Does Anyone Know It?)

Post by Joseph R Mcdona » Mon, 05 Oct 1992 01:19:11


<
<     We are running our AI baseball demo again this year to predict series
<winners. Last year we picked the Braves in 7 over the Bucs and The Twins in
<6. Hopefully we do as well this time around.
<
<Here's what I have so far:
<
<Game 1. Smoltz vs Drabek
<Game 2. Avery vs Wakefield

Wakefield has been bumped to game 3 at home (Knuckleheads Unite!).
Jackson is pitching game two for the Bucs.
Tomlin is in the Pen.

<Game 3. Glavine vs Tomlin
<Game 4. Smoltz vs ?
<Game 5. Avery vs ?
<Game 6. Glavine vs ?
<Game 7. Smoltz vs ?
<
<The Braves are going with a 3 man rotation for the NLCS. They have dropped the
<sore-armed Pena and will used Pete Smith and Charles Liebrandt (ugh!) in
<relief roles.

Dean

--
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dean J. Falcione                                   Dean's UNIX Exorcism Service
(using jrmst8 by permission                             "We kill daemons"
 of the owner, Joe McDonald)