Bosox vs. Blue Jays

Bosox vs. Blue Jays

Post by Gordon Nigu » Sat, 22 Feb 1992 03:40:17


OK, here goes my big Boston vs. Blue Jay comparisons. Before I start I realize
I might have slight bias towards Jays, but I do think Boston will win BUT
it's not going to be a cakewalk for Boston like everyone around here seems to
think (I don't know why they think that, I recall a post like "Jays don't
have a chance") Anyways...

Starting Rotation
Now I'm not going to pretend that anyone on the Jays is as good as Rocket
Clemens and probably not as good Viola. However the Bostonians suffer from
some depth problems. Everyone seems to agree that Hesketh is the 3rd starter
for Boston which I wouldn't consider a plus. Hesketh has battled health
problems all along so I doubt that he could be much more effective than a guy
like Stottlemyre. Beyond Hesketh are guys like Young, Darwin and Gardiner who
are basically journeymen except for Gardiner who at least has a future but
hasn't pitched well yet in the majors. I think the Red Sox could find some
serious problems aside from their great 1-2 punch. So let's see the
possible starters on paper:
TORONTO: Guzman, Key, Stottlemyre, Morris, Steib, Wells
BOSTON:  Rocket, Viola, Hesketh,  Gardiner, Darwin, Gardiner, Morton?
I think that Boston's depth is very questionable and they only have two      
reliable starters. I give slight edge to JAYS.

Relievers
A joke. Let's compare closers, Reardon vs. Henke. Well let's not it's a waste
of time because anyone with rationale realizes that Henke's superior. Setup
men are Ward vs. Gray, well definitely give the edge for Ward as he's been
effective for many years now while Gray's only had one good year and his health
is kind of questionable from what I've read. The supporting cast for the Jays
include Mike Timlin and Bob MacDonald while the BoSox have Greg Harris and
Lamp and whoever loses out as a starter. Definitely JAYS have the better pen.

Catcher
Tony Pena vs. Borders/Myers. Although Pena won Gold Glove I dont' think he's
anything special behind the plate, and his offense isn't very good at all
considering it's Fenway. Although Myers/Borders are POOR defensively, I do
think that they can provide more offense than Pena (although Borders is coming
off a REAL BAD year). Pena still gets the edge on defense but his skills are
eroding so all in all I give Boston slight edge.

First Base
Tough call. Quintana's decent with a nice OBP and crushes LHP and Vaughn is
up and coming but it's hard what to tell what he'll do. I think that Olerud
is better than either one of these guys a) better than Quintana because I think
Olerud will improve and that an increase in power from Olerud will make him
better than Carlos and b) Vaughn has shown ability in the minors but Olerud's
already shown that he is a decent player in the MAJORS so I'd give Olerud the
edge.
However I'll give the edge to the Bosox a) to avoid bias and b) well they
probably have a slight edge because they have two of these guys and a platoon
might look really nice!

Second Base
Although Reed is a fine player with good OBP and solid D, Roberto Alomar clearly
wins out. Alomar is a superior fielder, has more speed on the base paths,
more line drive power (don't forget Reed plays in Fenway!) and is younger so
he's more likely to develop and improve hiomself. Solid Edge JAYS.

Shortstop
Like picking between being eaten alive by live rats or swimming in acid.
Both teams don't have much at all here. I'll give it to Boston because I don't
think that the Jays can put anyone good out there, while Boston has a hope
that Naehring or Cooper will pan out.

Third Base
Definitely Wade. Kelly Gruber's overrated IMO. He doesn't get on base that
much and seems to have a lot of nagging injuries. He's still a good player but
I think Wade is better. Edge RED SOX.

Left Field
Joe Carter vs. Mike Greenwell? I think Greenwell's getting to the point where
he is about an average player, maybe even below. Considering the park, his
defense and his lack of power, his decent OBP doesn't impress you. My point
is not that I think Joe Carter is that great; but he still is a step up from
the eroding talent of Mike Greenwell.

Center Field
Hmmmm....Burks vs. White. Here's where I get flamed....I think it's a tough
call but I'd have to go with White. Despite Burks Gold Glove I DO NOT BELIEVE
THAT HIS DEFENSE IS ANYTHING SPECIAL. This is because of his poor defensive
stats and when those are compared with Devo's defensive stats and his Gold
Gloves I'd definitely say Devo's clearly the superior defensive player. Burks
has had a problem staying healthy and hasn't really had that many great years
(not saying that Devo has either) but I've noticed that Burks speed is eroding
and considering all his injuries I don't think that he's this superstar that
everyone seems to say he is. Meanwhile, I DO BELIEVE that Devon can repeat
last year's performance except I think he'll lose about 20 BA points (and
20 OBP points) but even if this is so I think he'd be better than Burks....
Get my asbestos ready...I'm ready for flames!!

Right Field
Plantier vs. Derek Bell or Maldonado....I'll give this to the BoSox BUT I do
want to make one thing clear....Plantier is NOT a god yet! Derek Bell really
kicked the hell out of AAA pitching too you know. But I do think Plantier's
capable of a strong year and should be better than anyone Toronto puts out
there.

Designated Hitte
I'll give the edge to the Bosox but it's pretty close. Jack Clark is one of
my faves...he draws so many damn walks and cranks dingers. I think he's
better than Winfield.

So there you have it...      

CONCLUSIONS
While I DO think Boston will win I don't think it will be a cakewalk. What I
don't think was fair was everyone short changing Toronto. Most seem to believe
that because the Jays picked up Morris and Morris is supposed to be their
"ace" and Morris is no good that the Jays starting pitching was no good. I
honestly can't see that the BoSox have any reliable starters aside from their
two great ones...and also I don't think that Morris is Toronto's "ace" and
he DOESN'T HAVE TO BE! As far as I'm concerned, he's their fourth or fifth
starter and he'll be adequate in that role. Granted TO overpaid for him but
that's not relevant for this year anyways.
I also don't see how Boston's offense is so great. (Not saying that Toronto's
is good either). Plantier has the CHANCE of being great, but I don't think
he's a God yet! I also don't think Greenwell is that great at all and neither
is Tony Pena. Burks is injury prone and they have a black hole at SS, not to
mention that their bullpen doesn't have much depth AND THAT MAY BE CRITICAL IF
THE STARTERS ARE NOT HEALTHY.
I think the key for Boston is NOT Clemens, Viola or Plantier....I think it's
Lou Gorman. With yound players like Cooper, Plantier and Vaughn he has a clog
up for position players. HE HAS TO MAKE A DEAL!!! Lou must make a solid trade
where he can get some bullpen help or get a number three starter. I don't think
Lou's all that smart but a trade is OBVIOUSLY needed. If he can't make a trade
to fill his pitching depth, he should be fired.

                                Gord Niguma

 
 
 

Bosox vs. Blue Jays

Post by Valenti » Sat, 22 Feb 1992 09:50:07

Without getting into the pitching staffs, I would like to present the
following *impartial* review of the teams.  At each position I list
Bill James predictions for the respective players.  They may not be
100% accurate, but if you've followed them, you know they tend to be
pretty good.  And I don't think he is biased for or against either
team.

        Toronto                         Boston                  Difference
C       .296/.407 (Borders/Myers)       .315/.354 (Pena)        -.035
1B      .370/.444 (Olerud)              .359/.457 (Vaughn)      none
2B      .354/.420 (Alomar)              .359/.378 (Reed)        -.035
SS      .283/.363 (Zosky)               .324/.411 (Cooper/Nring)+.090
3B      .314/.437 (Gruber)              .417/.443 (Boggs)       +.110
LF      .318/.410 (Bell)                .370/.462 (Greenwell)   +.105
CF      .304/.384 (White)               .342/.468 (Burks)       +.120
RF      .302/.438 (Carter)              .374/.514 (Plantier)    +.150
DH      .321/.401 (Winfield)            .383/.405 (Clark)       +.065
                        Average Boston advantage in OPS:        +.063

Even counting stolen bases, this is at least an expected 100 run
difference in offense.  As for pitching and defense?  I won't go into
it in detail except to note that Boston should improve more than
Toronto.  And last year, Toronto allowed only 70 earned runs fewer
than Boston.  I don't have data on unearned runs, but despite their
better defense, Toronto committed more "errors".  And so I would be
surprised if Boston allowed significantly more unearned runs.

Bill James would probably predict Boston by 5.  (At least that's my
prediction.  :-)
--
Cheers,
-Valentine



 
 
 

Bosox vs. Blue Jays

Post by Gordon Nigu » Sun, 23 Feb 1992 00:40:24


Quote:
>Without getting into the pitching staffs, I would like to present the
>following *impartial* review of the teams.  At each position I list
>Bill James predictions for the respective players.  They may not be
>100% accurate, but if you've followed them, you know they tend to be
>pretty good.  And I don't think he is biased for or against either
>team.
>    Toronto                         Boston                  Difference
>C   .296/.407 (Borders/Myers)       .315/.354 (Pena)        -.035
>1B  .370/.444 (Olerud)              .359/.457 (Vaughn)      none
>2B  .354/.420 (Alomar)              .359/.378 (Reed)        -.035
>SS  .283/.363 (Zosky)               .324/.411 (Cooper/Nring)+.090
>3B  .314/.437 (Gruber)              .417/.443 (Boggs)       +.110
>LF  .318/.410 (Bell)                .370/.462 (Greenwell)   +.105
>CF  .304/.384 (White)               .342/.468 (Burks)       +.120
>RF  .302/.438 (Carter)              .374/.514 (Plantier)    +.150
>DH  .321/.401 (Winfield)            .383/.405 (Clark)       +.065
>                    Average Boston advantage in OPS:        +.063
>Even counting stolen bases, this is at least an expected 100 run
>difference in offense.  As for pitching and defense?  I won't go into
>it in detail except to note that Boston should improve more than
>Toronto.  And last year, Toronto allowed only 70 earned runs fewer
>than Boston.  I don't have data on unearned runs, but despite their
>better defense, Toronto committed more "errors".  And so I would be
>surprised if Boston allowed significantly more unearned runs.
>Bill James would probably predict Boston by 5.  (At least that's my
>prediction.  :-)
>--
>Cheers,
>-Valentine

I accept everything you've said here. Of course my point wasn't that I thought
Toronto would win, rather Toronto COULD win. People were saying that there's
no way that Boston would lose; I think that's insane. Remember the '86
Mets? It seemed they had NO CHANCE of losing the division title but they did.
And Boston probably isn't near as good as the '86 Mets. Even if Toronto had
a 30% chance of winning I still don't think "There's no way Boston will lose
" is an appropriate statement because the spread between the two teams
(even if the 5 game margin between the two teams exist) isn't THAT huge that
it can't be overcamoe by luck and other factors.

                                        Gord Niguma

- Show quoted text -


 
 
 

Bosox vs. Blue Jays

Post by clark » Sun, 23 Feb 1992 03:07:29

 People were saying that there's

Quote:
>no way that Boston would lose; I think that's insane. Remember the '86
>Mets? It seemed they had NO CHANCE of losing the division title but they did.
>And Boston probably isn't near as good as the '86 Mets.
>                                    Gord Niguma

        Yeah how memorable. the first team to win the WS without benefit of
        first winning the division. :^)

        KC

        Go Sox!

 
 
 

Bosox vs. Blue Jays

Post by ROBERT C WINDS » Tue, 25 Feb 1992 02:05:37

If you don't consider pitching and defense, then Detroit is the best
team not Boston.  Its pitching and defense that win division championships
and World Series, so to leave them out of the comparison weakens your
argument.

 
 
 

Bosox vs. Blue Jays

Post by 545hae.. » Tue, 25 Feb 1992 02:28:26


Quote:

> If you don't consider pitching and defense, then Detroit is the best
> team not Boston.  Its pitching and defense that win division championships
> and World Series, so to leave them out of the comparison weakens your
> argument.

I'm a big Detroit fan no matter how poorly they do, but I still wouldn't
consider them to be the best offensive team in the league.  Boston has that
easily.  Sure, we've got a lot of homers between Fielder, Deer, and Tettleton
(don't look for any other Tigers to hit 20 homers this year.. Phillips won't,
Trammell won't, Whitaker *PROBABLY* won't.. ).. oh, Fryman will likely hit 20
homers too.  But the Tigers don't have ANYONE who can hit for a good average.
Phillips and Whitaker had GREAT years last year, and had the highest averages
on the team among the full time players at .284 and .279 respectively.  Boston
had 4 guys hit over .280 that were full timers.  They've got a lot of power too
- Plantier, Burks, Quintana, Vaughn, Clark, and Brunansky.. I be at least 3 of
those guys will hit 20+ homers (although it'll take at least two of them to
count for Cecil's 40! :)

Boston doesn't have quite the pitching problem that the Tigers do, but if the
Tigers could pick up 2 good pitchers, or get two of their pitchers to have sub
3.70 ERA's, and the rest around 4.00 (starters), Boston and Detroit would have
immensely similar teams.  But for now, I think Boston has gotten the advantage
with the pickup of Viola.  I'm beginning to wonder if the Tigers are ever going
to realize that they can't hold on to these old farts forever in their starting
rotation, and they can't rely on the farm system to produce good arms either.

--

----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+
[   Rick Root                          Rotisserie Baseball           ]


[                                          of mankind.               ]
[   Manager, Reikland Ice Cows (RIC)                                 ]
----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+----+  

 
 
 

Bosox vs. Blue Jays

Post by Nelson » Tue, 25 Feb 1992 08:40:59


Quote:

>If you don't consider pitching and defense, then Detroit is the best
>team not Boston.  Its pitching and defense that win division championships
>and World Series, so to leave them out of the comparison weakens your
>argument.

I think even considering offense alone, Boston is still better than Detroit:

1B:     Mo Vaughn/Carlos Quintana vs. Cecil Fielder.  Vaughn only had a .138
        OTS, and Quintana .164, compared to Fielder's .180.  However, Vaughn
        is likely to improve, and Quintana will continue to kill righties.
        Still, Fielder is not unlikely to rebound to somewhere between '90 and
        '91 levels.  Detroit advantage.

2B:     Jody Reed (.136) vs. Lou Whitaker (.185).  Whitaker was much better
        this season, but at this age, he is likely to decline, and his '89 and
        '90 seasons were not exactly great.  About even.

SS:     Luis Rivera (.126) vs. Alan Trammell (.124).  Despite Rivera's better
        season, he has never hit before, so he's likely to fall off while
        Trammell, despite his age, is likely to rebound.  Detroit advantage.

3B:     Wade Boggs (.195) vs. Travis Fryman (.136).  No question.  Fryman is
        a decent player, but isn't anywhere close to Boggs.  Big Boston
        advantage.

LF:     Mike Greenwell (.150) vs. Dan Gladden (.116).  Are you kidding?
        Boston advantage.

CF:     Ellis Burks (.134) vs. Milt Cuyler (.112).  Even in his worst season in
        quite a while, Burks was better, and Cuyler, although still quite
        young, hasn't hit much in the minors, so isn't likely to improve much.
        Boston advantage.

RF:     Phil Plantier (.273) vs. Rob Deer (.116).  Plantier is obviously not
        going to hack at that rate for the whole season, but looks very
        impressive indeed, while Deer has declined every year since '87.
        Big Boston advantage.

C:      Tony Pena (.095) vs. Mickey Tettleton (.186).  No question about this
        one; *huge* Detroit advantage.

DH:     Jack Clark (.174) vs. Tony Phillips (.163).  Clark is declining;
        however, Phillips has never hit this well before, and isn't likely to
        repeat his year.  Boston advantage.

Now, if Detroit will play either Lloyd Moseby or Skeeter Barnes in left, I
*might* say it's even.  But with Gladden in there, it's no contest.

===============================================================================
GO CALIFORNIA ANGELS!
GO LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS!
GO LOS ANGELES KINGS!
===============================================================================

 
 
 

Bosox vs. Blue Jays

Post by Gordon Nigu » Tue, 25 Feb 1992 09:50:08


Quote:
>If you don't consider pitching and defense, then Detroit is the best
>team not Boston.  Its pitching and defense that win division championships
>and World Series, so to leave them out of the comparison weakens your
>argumen

   Oh no not this one again!! Once again
PITCHING + DEFENCE EQUALS OFFENSE!!    
Want a good example? Check out Pittsburgh in 1984, 1st in E.R.A. but last    
overall in their division (they were 75-87, 21.5 games out).
   Trust me, you don't want to get into arguments about this!

                                Gord Niguma

 
 
 

Bosox vs. Blue Jays

Post by Valenti » Tue, 25 Feb 1992 14:39:18


Quote:

>If you don't consider pitching and defense, then Detroit is the best
>team not Boston.  Its pitching and defense that win division championships
>and World Series, so to leave them out of the comparison weakens your
>argument.

Jesus!  I didn't mean that pitching didn't matter, just that I didn't
have the time or energy to go into it right then!  Personally, I think
that the Boston rotation is at least as good as the Toronto rotation,
and that the bullpen will be quite adequate.  If you want my full
opinion on the matter, read what I posted a while back.
--
Cheers,
-Valentine


 
 
 

Bosox vs. Blue Jays

Post by Valenti » Tue, 25 Feb 1992 15:00:35

Quote:

>I'm a big Detroit fan no matter how poorly they do, but I still wouldn't
>consider them to be the best offensive team in the league.  Boston has that
>easily.

You must mean Texas, no?  Boston scored 80 fewer runs than Detroit
last year.  Detroit plays in a pitchers park.  Boston plays in Fenway.
'Nuff said.  Detroit had a *much* better offense last year, and will
probably have a slightly better offense this year, even with everybody
coming off of career years.

Quote:
>Boston doesn't have quite the pitching problem that the Tigers do, but if the
>Tigers could pick up 2 good pitchers, or get two of their pitchers to have sub
>3.70 ERA's, and the rest around 4.00 (starters), Boston and Detroit would have
>immensely similar teams.  But for now, I think Boston has gotten the advantage
>with the pickup of Viola.

You continue to ignore the Fenway Effect.  Fenway inflates runs by 6%
plus.  Tiger Stadium *deflates* runs by 6% or so.  It inflates HRs,
but kills other X-base hits, and generally deflates BA.

Now compare the starting rotations of the Red Sox and Tigers:
Clemens         (nobody even *close*)
Viola           (nobody close)
Hesketh         Tanana
Gardiner        Gullickson
Young/Morton    Terrell

Sure.  If the Tigers could pick up a Clemens and a Viola, they would
have similar starting rotations (though Detroit has an empty pen,
while Boston has 6-8 major-league quality arms).  But the same can be
said of any team with one #3 starter and a bunch of #4/#5 types.

Quote:
>I'm beginning to wonder if the Tigers are ever going to realize that
>they can't hold on to these old farts forever in their starting
>rotation, and they can't rely on the farm system to produce good arms
>either.

Suppose they do realize this?  What can they then do?
--
Cheers,
-Valentine


 
 
 

Bosox vs. Blue Jays

Post by ROBERT C WINDS » Wed, 26 Feb 1992 00:27:56

Quote:


>> >If you don't consider pitching and defense, then Detroit is the best
>> >team not Boston.  Its pitching and defense that win division championships
>> >and World Series, so to leave them out of the comparison weakens your
>> >argument.

>> Jesus!  I didn't mean that pitching didn't matter, just that I didn't
>> have the time or energy to go into it right then!  Personally, I think
>> that the Boston rotation is at least as good as the Toronto rotation,
>> and that the bullpen will be quite adequate.  If you want my full
>> opinion on the matter, read what I posted a while back.
>> --
>> Cheers,
>> -Valentine



   I didn't mean to shoot down your opinion, I just think that too many
people get in the habit of making comparisons of teams solely on the
basis of offensive statistics because it is so easy to do.  For example,
you could do all of the comparing you wanted between the Jays and Oakland
in 1989 (I think), but the fact that Ernie Whitt couldn't throw out Cecil
Fielder carrying Ricky Henderson doomed the Jays to defeat.

   As to the fact that Boston's rotation is at least as good as Toronto's,
I can't agree.  Clemens and Viola are both quality starters but the rest
of the bunch are either borderline (Harris, Hesketh) or talented rookies
with little or no major league experiance.  On the other hand, Toronto has
Morris, Key, and Stieb as proven quality starters, Stottlemyre and Wells
as solid fourth or fifth starters and Guzman as a promising second year
pitcher.

Rob Windsor