Championship Probabilities

Championship Probabilities

Post by Mr. Poologi » Wed, 08 Mar 2000 04:00:00

For the top 4 teams, here are estimates of the
probability that each will win the 2000 NCAA
championship:

Cincinatti    .25
Stanford      .18
Duke          .10
Mich St.      .07

I got these estimates by loading the Poologic Calculator
with the top 64 Sagarin rated teams thru Mar. 4, treating them
as the tourney seedings.  (Of course, this is by no means an exact
simulation of the seeding process.)

No other team had more than a .05 probability.  But
twenty teams have a probability of greater than .01,
indicating a high degree of parity in college hoops.
You could well get a positive return on investment by entering
any (or all) of these twenty teams as champ in a pool where 100 or
more entries are made.

Last year, there was an 80% chance that a one seed would
win.  This year it will be around 60%.

After Selection Sunday, will will have some numbers based
on the actual seedings.
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