probability that each will win the 2000 NCAA

championship:

Cincinatti .25

Stanford .18

Duke .10

Mich St. .07

I got these estimates by loading the Poologic Calculator

with the top 64 Sagarin rated teams thru Mar. 4, treating them

as the tourney seedings. (Of course, this is by no means an exact

simulation of the seeding process.)

No other team had more than a .05 probability. But

twenty teams have a probability of greater than .01,

indicating a high degree of parity in college hoops.

You could well get a positive return on investment by entering

any (or all) of these twenty teams as champ in a pool where 100 or

more entries are made.

Last year, there was an 80% chance that a one seed would

win. This year it will be around 60%.

After Selection Sunday, will will have some numbers based

on the actual seedings.

--

http://members.aol.com/tadamsmar/poologic.htm

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