ACC Power Ratings - Games Through 2/11/98

ACC Power Ratings - Games Through 2/11/98

Post by George W. Harr » Fri, 13 Feb 1998 04:00:00


        What follows are power ratings for ACC men's
basketball teams based solely on the results of games
among conference members through Wednesday, February
11h 1998.

Team           Rating      Record       Previous
                       Conf    Total

1)Duke          82.62   11-1    22-2    1)82.59
2)UNC           80.97   11-1    25-1    2)81.53
3)Clemson       70.44    4-7    13-10   3)70.40
4)Maryland      69.60    8-4    15-7    4)69.11
5)FSU           68.05    5-7    15-9    5)68.06
6)GTech         66.34    4-7    15-9    6)65.85
7)Wake          62.86    4-7    12-10   7)62.56
8)NCState       61.84    3-9    12-11   8)62.23
9)***ia      60.15    2-9    10-14   9)60.22

Recent Games:

Wednesday, 2/11/98
        NCState at Maryland
                Prediction: Maryland by ~7
                Result:     Maryland by 15
        Georgia Tech at Wake Forest
                Prediction: Wake by ~1
                Result:     Georgia Tech by 1
        UNC at ***ia
                Prediction: UNC by ~13
                Result:     UNC by 15

Predictions, immediate & cumulative: 2-1, 29-15

Upcoming Games:

Saturday, 2/14/98
        ***ia at Georgia Tech
                Prediction: Georgia Tech by ~7
        Maryland at UNC
                Prediction: UNC by ~12
        Wake Forest at Duke
                Prediction: Duke by ~20

--
Real men don't need macho posturing to bolster their egos.

George W. Harris  For actual email address, replace each 'u' with an 'i'.

 
 
 

ACC Power Ratings - Games Through 2/11/98

Post by Donnie Barn » Fri, 13 Feb 1998 04:00:00

Quote:
>1)Duke              82.62   11-1    22-2    1)82.59
>2)UNC               80.97   11-1    25-1    2)81.53

>Recent Games:

>Wednesday, 2/11/98
>    UNC at ***ia
>            Prediction: UNC by ~13
>            Result:     UNC by 15

How did UNC lose over half a point when they fulfilled their
"prediction"?  That seems weird...

--Donnie

--

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**  I don't want a flannel shirt for Christmas.

 
 
 

ACC Power Ratings - Games Through 2/11/98

Post by John Alexander Thacke » Fri, 13 Feb 1998 04:00:00


:>1)Duke             82.62   11-1    22-2    1)82.59
:>2)UNC              80.97   11-1    25-1    2)81.53
:>
:>Recent Games:
:>
:>Wednesday, 2/11/98
:>   UNC at ***ia
:>           Prediction: UNC by ~13
:>           Result:     UNC by 15

: How did UNC lose over half a point when they fulfilled their
: "prediction"?  That seems weird...

: --Donnie

Well, it was only two points over.  The only game well off
prediction was NCSU at Maryland.  (A 15 instead of 7 pt.
victory for Maryland, IIRC)  Hmmm.  One would think that
Maryland getting better would reward Carolina, since that's
to whom they lost, but apparently Duke's blowout of Maryland,
and other secondary ripple effects hurt Carolina.

I remember this happening to Duke earlier this season,
when they blew out someone by more than expected,
yet fell in rankings  (Again it was 1 or 2 pts).

John

 
 
 

ACC Power Ratings - Games Through 2/11/98

Post by George W. Harr » Fri, 13 Feb 1998 04:00:00


thusly:

=>1)Duke             82.62   11-1    22-2    1)82.59
=>2)UNC              80.97   11-1    25-1    2)81.53
=>
=>Recent Games:
=>
=>Wednesday, 2/11/98
=>   UNC at ***ia
=>           Prediction: UNC by ~13
=>           Result:     UNC by 15
=
=How did UNC lose over half a point when they fulfilled their
="prediction"?  That seems weird...

        Strange, I know; there were a number of unusual
results this time; UNC *and* ***ia both dropped; I believe
Maryland *and* NCState both went up.  I have no clue;
there may be an error somewhere, but everything has
seemed dead on up until now, so that doesn't seem likely.  
When you've got three games entered at the same time, it's
hard to isolate effects.  Also, I don't take into account my
blowout factor in the predictions, although that shouldn't
matter at this level.

        I'm going to go back and enter the three games
separately into the old data, to see what the effects of
each individual game are.

=--Donnie

--
Real men don't need macho posturing to bolster their egos.

George W. Harris  For actual email address, replace each 'u' with an 'i'.

 
 
 

ACC Power Ratings - Games Through 2/11/98

Post by George W. Harr » Fri, 13 Feb 1998 04:00:00

In 12 Feb 1998 07:40:01 GMT of yore, John Alexander Thacker

=Well, it was only two points over.  The only game well off
=prediction was NCSU at Maryland.  (A 15 instead of 7 pt.
=victory for Maryland, IIRC)  Hmmm.  One would think that
=Maryland getting better would reward Carolina, since that's
=to whom they lost, but apparently Duke's blowout of Maryland,
=and other secondary ripple effects hurt Carolina.

        Actually, what's really important is how many times
you've played each team, rather than whether you've
won/lost to them; also, GT beating Wake on the road is a
significant switch, since a win is worth +4; winning by one
is ten points better than losing by one.  So, teams that have
played GT or Maryland twice would be rewarded, while
teams that have played Wake or NCState twice would be
punished.  Further analysis tomorrow.

=John

--
Doesn't the fact that there are *exactly* fifty states seem a little suspicious?

George W. Harris  For actual email address, replace each 'u' with an 'i'